Persistent armed conflict in Liptako Gourma reduces household livelihood activities

• Moderate rains in May in the Sudanian zones of Sahelian countries allowed planting to begin, which will continue due to the average rainfall expected in the first half of June. NOAA rainfall forecasts, which indicate average to above-average seasonal totals in Sahelian countries, are expected to support a good 2023/24 agricultural season, albeit with possible localized flooding along the Niger, Bénoué, Sokoto, Komadugu, Chari and Logone rivers.

• Despite good rainfall prospects, below-average harvests are expected this year in areas affected by armed conflict and population displacement, mainly due to reduced access to fields and agricultural inputs. These areas include the Lake Chad Basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-western and north-central Nigeria, and the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon. The situation is even more worrying in the Liptako Gourma area, where the intensification of military offensives in Mali and Burkina Faso has led to repression of the civilian population by armed groups, and new displacements at the start of the agricultural season.

• Cereal prices in the Sahel rose between March and April due to the seasonal depletion of household stocks, increased market dependency and higher demand during Ramadan. Prices remain well above average due to factors such as declining stocks, high production costs, restrictions on cereal exports, high global commodity prices and ongoing insecurity and conflict. Nevertheless, prices in the production zones were lower than the previous year, reflecting the rebound in production. In the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea, prices also remained above average due to strong demand, high international prices, high production costs and lower exchange rates. In Nigeria, macroeconomic challenges persisted, with inflation reaching an 18-year high. On the other hand, cash availability improved significantly in tandem with market activities. Prices will remain above average throughout the marketing year due to lower supply, stable demand and high transaction costs.

• The majority of areas will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until September 2023. In areas affected by civil insecurity, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity is underway, notably in provinces in Burkina Faso (Kossi, Sourou, Séno, Yatenga, Bam, northern Namentenga, Komondjari and Gourma), and the northern and western regions of Niger (Tahoua and Tillabéry), regions in Mali (Kanem, Bar el Gazel, northern Guera in Chad, in the southern regions of Gao, Mopti and Timbuktu), parts of Niger (Borno State, and parts of Yobe, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina), Kaduna in Nigeria, and in the far north of Cameroon will persist until September 2023. From June to September, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will extend to other provinces in Burkina Faso (Sanmatenga, Gnagna, Tapoa, Kompienga), to the Lake Chad region, and to other LGAs in the above-mentioned states in Nigeria. In the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity will improve slightly from June/July onwards, as the new harvests will enable households to move into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

• The levels of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) currently observed in the provinces of Loroum, Soum, Oudalan and Yagha in Burkina Faso will persist until September 2023. In the commune of Djibo, where IDPs and host households are experiencing a prolonged situation of Emergency (IPC Phase 4), some populations are said to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). From June to September, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely in Ménaka in Mali, and in inaccessible LGAs in the North-East and North-West states of Nigeria, where households are likely to have limited food stocks and limited access to markets and humanitarian aid.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. West Africa. Key Messages: Persistent armed conflict in Liptako Gourma reduces household livelihood activities, 2023.