Record-level prices expected in the Sahel during the lean season will further limit access to food for poor households

The rainy season, which began in late February/early March in the bimodal Gulf of Guinea zone, was characterized in May by moderate to intense rainfall. During the same month, rainfall was regular and moderate in the Sudanian zones, and also affected southern Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad. Soil preparation is underway in the Sahelian zones, while planting is underway in the Sudanian zones. According to NMME, WMO and C3S forecasts, below-average rainfall is expected in the Gulf of Guinea, including southern and central Nigeria and southern Cameroon, from June to August 2022. Above-average rainfall is expected in the Sahel, including northern Nigeria, central and southeastern Mali, southern Niger and northernmost Cameroon, between June and August 2022. Regional climate centers (AGRHYMET, ACMAD) forecast the same conditions until September, but with average to below-average rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea.

These rainfall forecasts suggest good prospects for the 2022/23 harvests, which could be dampened by rising prices for agricultural inputs, and by the insecurity and armed conflicts that continue to lead to population displacements and greatly reduced access to cropland in the Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-western and north-central Nigeria and the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon. Typical livelihoods, activities linked to markets and trade, transhumance and access to basic social services have been severely disrupted. In Burkina Faso, between February and May 2022, there was an unprecedented increase in attacks by terrorist groups against regular armed forces and civilians, and in actions to blockade and further isolate local communities.

Commodity prices continued to rise across the region, remaining well above the five-year average. In addition to seasonal stock depletion and Ramadan, these inflationary trends are due to below-average supplies and availability, increased market dependency and insecurity in parts of the Sahel; strong export demand and depreciating national currencies (outside XOF countries) in coastal countries; and the lingering effects of COVID-19 on shipping, cross-border trade restrictions, soaring world food and fuel prices and soaring transport costs in the region. A difficult lean season with new price records is expected in most Sahel zones. In addition, soaring fertilizer prices, which have almost doubled in several countries, are also a major concern for the current agricultural season in the region.

The majority of areas will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until September 2022, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in some cases. In the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, affected by civil unrest, Stress! (IPC Phase 2 !) will remain until September 2022, thanks to food assistance. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) justified by persistent insecurity/armed conflict and insufficient winter harvests in 2021, affecting the provinces of Lorum, Yatenga, Soum, Seno, Yagha, Komondjari, Bam and Sanmatenga in Burkina Faso, the Lac region in Chad, the Ménaka region, the east of the Mopti region, the south of the Gao and Timbuktu regions in Mali, the north and west of the Tillaberi region and the west of the Tahoua region in Niger, and the northwest and northeast of Nigeria will persist until September. In Burkina Faso, Chad and Nigeria, it will spread to other areas from June onwards.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes currently prevailing in the Far North, North-West and South-West of Cameroon and in Central Africa, due to the persistence of conflict, will persist until September 2022. However, in the north of Cameroon's South-West and North-West regions, the food situation will improve slightly from June/July onwards, thanks to new harvests, enabling households to move into Stress (IPC Phase 2). In Oudalan and northern Soum in Burkina Faso, and northern and western Borno in Nigeria, emergency food insecurity (IPC Phase 4) due to armed conflict will persist until September 2022 throughout Soum province and other LGAs in Borno, with food security conditions for IDPs and host households with very limited access to food and income.