Conflicts and high prices contribute to a worsening food situation

Moderate rains continued to affect the Gulf of Guinea bimodal zone in May, reaching the Sudanian zones. Forecasts by NOAA and the Regional Forum on Agro-Hydroclimatic Seasonal Forecasts for the Sudano-Sahelian Countries (PRESASS) indicate a generally wet 2021 rainy season, with equivalent to above-average rainfall over the Central and Eastern Sahel. An early to normal start, a late to normal end, dry sequences tending to be longer at the beginning of the season and average towards the end, and overall average to above-average runoff are also forecast. These rainfall conditions are favorable for an at least average 2021-20222 agricultural season for the region.

Persistent insecurity and armed conflict continue to lead to massive population movements in the region.  As of April 26, 2021, IOM reports 1,797,769 displaced persons in the Liptako-Gourma region, 65% of whom are in Burkina Faso, and 5,192,551 displaced persons in the Lake Chad basin, 75% of whom are in Nigeria. Livelihoods, market and trade-related activities and access to basic social services for most of these displaced people are severely disrupted. Market operations and access will continue to be hampered by ongoing insecurity and conflict in the Great Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-west and north-central Nigeria, and the north-west and south-west regions of Cameroon. The same will apply to transhumance.

Market supplies remain below average in several countries, particularly in the eastern basin, but will remain sufficient to meet demand until the next harvests. Food prices remain over 30 percent higher than average in several countries (Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad and Cameroon) due to currency depreciations and inflations, especially in the Gulf of Guinea countries, and above-average restocking demands in several countries, accentuated by movement restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. Prices will remain high until the end of the lean season in most countries, as demand increases. Prices for small ruminants, still stable compared with the average, will rise with the increase in demand for the Tabaski feast in July, while cattle prices will remain down, especially in Chad and Niger, due to limited exports to Nigeria as a result of the depreciation of the naira, insecurity along trade corridors and persistent COVID-19 restrictions.

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until September 2021, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some, including many urban households hard hit by the residual effects of COVID-19 restrictions (reduced implementation of usual livelihoods, lower incomes and purchasing power). The Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, and the Sanmatenga province in Burkina Faso, will remain in Stress!  (IPC Phase 2) until May 2021, thanks to food assistance. The Crisis (IPC Phase 3) currently prevailing in northern and northeastern Burkina Faso, central-eastern Mali, the Tillabéry region and northern Tahoua in Niger, the Lake region of Chad, northwestern and northeastern Nigeria, the far north of Cameroon and the Central African Republic due to persistent conflict, will persist until September. The Crisis (IPC Phase 3) affecting North-West and South-West Cameroon until June could evolve into Stress (IPC Phase 2) in July with the new harvests. In Nigeria, IDPs in camps located in inaccessible areas near the Lake Chad Basin are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), where access to food and income is very limited, in addition to reduced humanitarian access.