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The 2019/20 rainy season is expected to be normal

  • Key Message Update
  • West Africa
  • May 2019
The 2019/20 rainy season is expected to be normal

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • The 2019 rainfall forecasts prepared in April by CILSS and ACMAD in collaboration with regional countries indicate that seasonal totals will likely be higher than average over western Niger, central Mali, most of northern Burkina Faso, northern Togo, northern Benin, northeastern Ghana, northwest Nigeria and southern Chad. However, they may be normal to lower on the coastal zone of the Gulf of Guinea countries, with the Atlantic seaboard extending from Mauritania to Liberia and around Lake Chad.

    • Agricultural land preparation is ongoing as usual in Sudano-Sahelian areas. The pastoral lean season is normal, except in parts of Mauritania, Senegal and in the northern part of the pastoral zone in Mali where pastures depleted early due to low production. In the Liptako-Gourma region and the greater Lake Chad basin, civil insecurity continues to have a negative impact on livestock movements.

    • Markets remain well supplied with staple foods while demand remains seasonally low to medium. Thus, prices are lower than last year but slightly higher or lower than average. However, they remain atypically high in conflict areas and in the Tibesti region of Chad. Livestock markets remain affected by insecurity and limited export opportunities to Nigeria. Markets will remain well supplied until September with prices slightly above average from May (Ramadan), but will remain atypically high in conflict areas. 

    • Most of the region will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until September 2019. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity will affect poor households in southern Chad, the Tahoua region, south of Tillabéry in Niger, rice growing areas in the Niger Delta and the Timbuktu River Valley in Gao between June and September due to poor harvests in 2018/19. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) affects host households and internally displaced households in northern Burkina Faso, poor households in southern Mopti and Gao in Mali and the Diffa region of Niger due to low incomes, caused in part by insecurity that disrupts markets in addition to the early exhaustion of household stocks in some areas.

    • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will continue to affect the Tibesti (which has had its border closed with Libya) and Lake Chad regions, the Tillabéry region in Niger, CAR and Cameroon until September due to armed conflicts and/or civil insecurity that significantly disrupt household livelihoods. Households in northeastern Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict continue to depend on humanitarian aid for access to food and remain food insecure. Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) particularly in Borno State and incidentally Yobé State. In adjacent areas that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, the food security situation could be similar or worse.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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