Generally average to above-average rainfall expected in the Sahel during the rainy season

Seasonal forecasts from major meteorological centers (IRI, ECMWF, NOAA-CPC, UK MET), as well as those produced by the Prévisions Saisonnières en Afrique de l’Ouest (PRESAO 2016), indicate that globally average to above-average rainfall is expected in most areas of West Arica and the Sahel, except for over coastal areas of the Gulf of Guinea where average to below-average rainfall levels are expected. This bodes well for the restoration of pastoral resources and a normal progression of agricultural activities in most zones.  

Average to good agroclimatic conditions and good 2015/16 production are maintaining at least average access to food and income for households in most agricultural and agropastoral zones. Markets will generally continue to function normally and incomes from typical livelihood activities strategies will drive Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity in most areas between now and the next harvest. 

However, in certain pastoral and agropastoral zones in Niger, Mali, Chad, Mauritania, and Senegal where either 1) 2015 crop production was below average, 2) herd sizes are atypically low, or 3) pastoral conditions are poor, incomes generated by poor households are not currently sufficient to ensure adequate food access. Consequently, localized areas of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will continue until June in the pastoral zone and September in the agropastoral zone. 

In Nigeria, the effects of the depreciation of the Naira and a sharp increase in prices compared to average, as well as disruptions caused by conflict in northeastern Nigeria and the Lake Chad region, will not be resolved in the coming months. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) currently observed around the Lake in Niger, Chad, and northeastern Nigeria will continue until September. 

Despite the slow resumption of economic activities after the Ebola outbreak, incomes generated by the majority of poor households in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia are currently sufficient to enable food access in line with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity will continue in Sierra Leone until September due to weak household purchasing power which is limiting the ability of households to meet basic non-food expenditures.