Rising prices and conflict continue to maintain high levels of food insecurity

Light rainfall continued to affect the Gulf of Guinea at the end of May, while higher rainfall was observed in the southern areas of the region. NOAA forecasts, together with the regional forum on agro-hydro-climatic seasonal forecasts for the countries of the Sudano-Sahelian zone (PRESASS), indicate a generally wet 2021 rainy season, with equivalent to above-average rainfall amounts in the central and eastern Sahelian zone. An early to normal start, a late to normal end, dry sequences tending to be longer at the beginning of the season and average towards the end, and overall average to above-average runoff are also forecast. These rainfall conditions are favorable for an at least average 2021-20222 agricultural season for the region.  

Persistent insecurity and armed conflict continue to lead to massive population movements in the region.  As of May 21, 2021, 1,870,587 displaced people are registered in the Liptako-Gourma, 65 percent of them in Burkina Faso, and 5,245,953 displaced people in the Lake Chad Basin, 75 percent of them in Nigeria (IOM). The livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance movements and access to basic social services of most of these displaced people have been severely disrupted. Market operations and access continue to be hampered by ongoing insecurity and conflict in the Great Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-western and north-central Nigeria, the Tibesti region and the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon.

Market supplies remain below average in several countries, particularly in the eastern basin, but will remain sufficient to meet demand until the next harvests. Staple food prices remain above average in several countries, and substantially high in Nigeria, due to reduced supply in the face of greater restocking demand in several countries, accentuated by movement restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, and depreciation of national currencies and inflation in coastal countries outside the CFA zone. Prices will generally remain above average throughout the scenario period; households in some areas will be relieved by humanitarian assistance and sales at moderate prices. A seasonal drop in prices will occur following the harvest, but will be less pronounced than average in several markets - notably in the eastern basin. Prices for small ruminants have begun to rise in several Sahelian livestock markets as demand increases in the run-up to the Tabaski celebrations in July, while cattle prices will remain depressed, especially in Chad and Niger, due to limited exports to Nigeria as a result of the depreciation of the naira, insecurity along trade corridors and persistent COVID-19 restrictions.

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until September 2021, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some, including many urban households hard hit by the residual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as reduced implementation of usual livelihoods and fewer opportunities for casual labor, resulting in lower incomes and purchasing power. The Diffa region, the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, thanks to food assistance. The Crisis (IPC Phase 3) currently prevailing in the north and northeast of Burkina Faso, the Tillabéry region and the north of Tahoua in Niger, the Lake region of Chad, the northwest and northeast of Nigeria, the far north of Cameroon and the Central African Republic, due to persistent insecurity and conflict, will persist until September 2021. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes affecting North-West and South-West Cameroon until June could evolve into Stress (IPC Phase 2) in July with the new harvests. In Nigeria, IDPs in camps located in inaccessible areas near the Lake Chad Basin are in Emergency  (IPC Phase 4) where access to food and income is very limited, in addition to very reduced humanitarian access.