Inflation and flooding are driving food insecurity of vulnerable households

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Seasonal forecasts of agro-hydro-climatic characteristics for the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa and the Sahel (PRESASS 2024) predicted above-average cumulative rainfall for the June-August period in flood-prone areas. According to rainfall data from the Regional Climate Center for West Africa and the Sahel, rainfall in the Sahelian strip over the past 30 days was 120 to 600 percent above average compared to the 1991-2020 reference period. These torrential rains have caused severe flooding, severely impacting livelihoods and access to basic social services for more than 700,000 people in several West and Central African countries, including the Central African Republic, Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, and Togo, compromising their ability to meet their needs and further weakening the food security of the most vulnerable households.
The security crisis persists in the Sahel and continues to lead to population movements, although returns of displaced people are increasingly being recorded in some places. In July 2024, 3,141,929 displaced people were registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma, 67 percent of which are in Burkina Faso; 6,068,685 displaced people were registered in the Lake Chad basin, 74 percent of which are in Nigeria. Livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance movements, and access to basic social services are severely disrupted in these areas. According to IOM, the security crisis is increasingly spreading to coastal countries (Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin), with some 131,373 displaced persons estimated in May 2024.
Grain prices rose seasonally on Sahelian markets from June to July 2024 (the middle of the lean season). The latest increases have been pronounced in many markets due to extended institutional purchasing periods, delayed and low levels of restocking, and recent floods which have hampered trading activities. However, staple food prices have begun to decrease in some coastal areas with the arrival of new harvests on the markets, such as southern Cameroon,. In Nigeria, despite a general trend of high prices, overall inflation fell slightly in July 2024 for the first time in almost two years, with several isolated cases of lower staple food prices linked to the early harvest and the recent removal of import duties. Overall, prices remained well above their five-year averages across the region due to factors including below-average stocks, strong demand, prolonged insecurity, macroeconomic challenges, and cross-border trade restrictions. More general seasonal price declines are expected in September/October with the main rain harvests.
The majority of areas will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until September 2024. In areas affected by civil unrest, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are currently underway and will persist until September 2024: in the West, East, and North Central regions of Niger, the Sahelo-Saharan strip and the Lake region of Chad, the west and northwest of Mali, the Far West, Central and East of Nigeria, and the South-West, North-West and Far North of Cameroon. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist through January in Chad, Mali, Niger, the aforementioned parts of Nigeria, and the Far North, North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon.
Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes will be observed in Loroum, Soum, Bam, Oudalan, and Tapoa provinces in Burkina Faso until January 2025. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes currently observed in the inaccessible LGAs of Nigeria's northeastern states (Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Bama) will persist until January 2025, due to limited household food stocks, disruption of livelihoods, and limited access to markets and humanitarian aid. From June onwards, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will persist in the Ménaka Region of Mali due to deteriorating security conditions limiting people's access to markets and pronounced livelihoods deterioration.
From October 2024, the majority of areas will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until January 2025 due to the harvests which will improve seasonal access to food. In areas affected by civil unrest, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes will be observed in Loroum, Bam, Komandjari, Seno, Soum, Yagha, Oudalan, Kompienga, and Tapoa provinces in Burkina Faso. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will be observed in Tillabéry, Tahoua, Maradi, and Diffa regions in Niger. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will also be observed in Ménaka in Mali (due to improved food access from livestock products for poor households), and in the aforementioned regions of Chad and in the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon. However, in Nigeria, inaccessible LGAs in the northeastern states (Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Bama) will remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) until January 2025, due to the negative impacts of conflict on food access and livelihoods.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. West Africa Key Message Update July 2024: Inflation and flooding are driving food insecurity of vulnerable households, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.