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Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity expected in northeastern Nigeria due to the Boko Haram conflict

  • Key Message Update
  • West Africa
  • July 2015
Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity expected in northeastern Nigeria due to the Boko Haram conflict

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • After a poor start, rainfall activity in the Sahel has picked up since the middle of July. Current forecasts bode well for above-average cumulative rainfall totals for the remainder of the season, even in areas currently facing large deficits, such as northern Senegal, southwestern Mauritania, the northern Maradi, northern Zinder, and Diffa areas of Niger, and northeastern Nigeria.

    • Currently, cereal availability is generally above average with adequate market supplies across the region, even in certain conflict areas of northern Mali affected by the signature of the June 20th peace accord. However, market supplies in northern areas of Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict are still atypical low compared to normal for this time of the year.

    • The highest levels of food insecurity in West Africa are currently observed in areas affected by the Boko Haram conflict with worst-off zones facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity between July and September 2015. Well-targeted humanitarian assistance is needed for approximately 3.5 million people in northern Nigeria and another 400,000 people in Niger, Chad, and neighboring Cameroon.

    • Despite increasing rainfall activity in July over Mauritania and Senegal, the effects of 2014/15 crop and pasture production shortfalls will continue to drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity between now and September in agropastoral areas. In Mauritania, the state of child nutrition is also concerning with a June 2015 SMART survey indicating that the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) in Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, Assaba, Gorgol, Brakna, Tagant, and Guidimakha was above the emergency threshold.

    • The start of the growing season in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is expanding income-generating opportunities and improving food access for poor households. However, many households in areas still feeling the residual effects of the Ebola outbreak or with new Ebola cases are contending with below-average incomes which is forcing them to cut back on the quantity and quality of their food intake. These households will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity through September.

    • Across the rest of the region, above-average food stocks, normal income levels, and regularly functioning markets are enabling households to meet their basic food and nonfood needs without resorting to atypical coping strategies. These areas are currently experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity with food availability and access expected to be further strengthened by the start-of-season and recovery in pastoral production through September 2015.

    Figures Projected food security outcomes for July to September 2015

    Figure 1

    Projected food security outcomes for July to September 2015

    Source: FEWS NET

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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