Food prices are showing a record and early seasonal rise, foreshadowing reduced access for poor households.

The 2021/22 harvests in the Sahel and West Africa have been estimated (by the regional PREGEC system) to be 3.2 percent above average. However, severe rainfall breaks and the early cessation of rains in several Sahelian zones reduced production to below-average levels in Niger, Mauritania, Chad, Burkina Faso and Mali. The dry season (market gardening and cereals) is progressing well, with vegetable harvests improving food supplies and providing income for households. These harvests are considered average to below average, given the average to below-average availability of surface water.  Also, in areas affected by conflict and insecurity, access to production sites for these off-season crops remains very limited, accentuating households' dependence on markets or food assistance.

Insecurity and armed conflict continue to increase the number of displaced people in the region every month. As of December 22, 2021, 2,191,645 IDPs were registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma, 69 percent of them in Burkina Faso, and 5,462,244 in the Lake Chad Basin, 76 percent of them in Nigeria (IOM, December 2021). Livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance and people's access to basic social services have been severely disrupted in the Lake Chad Basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, northern Nigeria, the Tibesti region of Chad and the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon. 

Despite below-average harvests in a number of Sahelian countries, cereal supply is experiencing a seasonal increase, but remains below average due to low levels of carryover stocks, and observed cases of stock retention by commercial actors. Demand remained above average due to a greater need to reconstitute stocks. Flows remained below normal due to persistent insecurity, disruptions linked to COVID-19 and several national restrictions on the outflow of agricultural products. As a result, there has been a general increase in staple food prices in several markets in the region, with an early seasonal rise in Sahelian countries. This increase in food prices is the biggest since 2011, a record year.

The majority of areas will remain in Minimal(IPC Phase 1) until May 2022, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some. Many poor urban households continue to suffer the residual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, with low purchasing power exacerbated by commodity price inflation. In conflict zones such as the Centre-Nord region of Burkina Faso, the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region of Niger, the Stress!  (IPC Phase 2 !) will remain under control until May 2022, thanks to food assistance. However, in Burkina Faso, the situation will continue to deteriorate in the provinces of Loroum, Yatenga, Soum, Oudalan, Séno, Yagha, Komondjari and Gourma, reaching Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to persistent insecurity and insufficient harvests. In Oudalan province, food consumption deficits and recourse to begging or forced migration could intensify between February and May, keeping IDPs and host households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes currently prevailing in the Tillabéry and northern Tahoua regions of Niger, the Lake region of Chad, north-western and north-eastern Nigeria, parts of north-western and south-western Cameroon and the Central African Republic due to persistent conflict, will persist until May 2022. In the east of Mopti and Ménaka in Mali and the far north of Cameroon, also affected by conflict and low production, the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) that prevailed in September improved slightly in November with the new harvests, enabling households to move into Stress (IPC Phase 2). In Nigeria, the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes underway in the most conflict-affected areas of Borno State will persist until May 2022. In this country, food security conditions remain worrying for IDPs in both the northeast and the northwest, where access to food and income remains very limited, in addition to very limited humanitarian access.