Despite good harvests, trade and institutional stock replenishment needs could keep food prices high

Harvests of off-season crops are continuing, boosting food supplies from above-average rainfed harvests in 2020/21. Good harvests of market garden produce are providing income and improving household nutrition in most of the region. However, in areas affected by conflict and insecurity, access to off-season production sites remains very limited, increasing household dependence on the market or food assistance. 

The availability of pastures and watering places remains satisfactory in the region, but access by herds remains a concern in the areas of Lake Chad, Liptako-Gourma, Far North Cameroon, North-West Nigeria and the Tibesti region of Chad affected by insecurity, conflict and banditry. Transhumance movements also continue to be disrupted by insecurity along transhumance corridors and the tightening of security measures at the borders of certain coastal countries. In addition, the bush fires already reported and the unusual concentrations of animals at reception sites are likely to lead to over-exploitation of available and accessible resources. This could lead to an early deterioration in the body condition of the animals and a consequent fall in their market value.

Markets remain well supplied, with prices for staple foods down seasonally but generally higher than last year's levels and the five-year average, particularly in areas affected by civil insecurity and conflict, where the functioning of many markets remains significantly reduced. Demand for the replenishment of merchant and institutional stocks is above average and could keep prices under pressure. The second wave of COVID-19 in the region since November means that restrictive measures will be maintained, but will be less restrictive than those of March-May, which had a significant impact on economic activities.  

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until May 2021, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some, including many urban households hard hit by the COVID-19 restrictive measures, which have reduced the implementation of usual livelihoods, resulting in lower incomes and purchasing power. In areas affected by civil insecurity, such as the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, the Sanmatenga province in Burkina Faso, and the Lac region in Chad, the Stress!  (IPC Phase 2 !) will remain under control until May 2021, thanks to planned food assistance. 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will prevail until May 2021 among certain displaced households in Burkina Faso in the provinces of Bam, Namentenga, Loroum, Soum, Séno, Oudalan, Yagha, Gnagna and Komondjari, and in the north, northwest and southeast of the Central African Republic,  in the Lake area of Chad, the Tillabéry region and north of Tahoua in Niger, in north-western and north-eastern Nigeria and in the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon, due to the persistence of conflict and the impact of flooding on livelihoods.  In Nigeria, IDPs in camps located in inaccessible areas near the Lake Chad Basin are in Emergency Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 4), where access to food and income is very limited, in addition to reduced humanitarian access.