Key Message Update

Continuing insecurity increases humanitarian needs while reducing access to vulnerable populations

January 2020

December 2019 - January 2020

Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, decembre 2019 a janvier 2020: La plupart de la region en Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC), parties de Mali, Niger, Tchad, et Nigeria en Stresse (Phase 2 de l'IPC), partis de Niger, Cameroun, Republique Centrafricaine, Burkina Faso, et Nigeria en Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC), et Urgence (Phase 4 de l'IPC) dans le nord-est de Nigeria

February - May 2020

Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, fevrier a mai 2020: La plupart de la region en Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC), parties de Mali, Niger, Tchad, et Nigeria en Stresse (Phase 2 de l'IPC), partis de Niger, Cameroun, Republique Centrafricaine, Burkina Faso, et Nigeria en Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC), et Urgence (Phase 4 de l'IPC) dans le nord-est de Nigeria

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The 2019/20 harvests in West Africa are estimated to be above average for all crops, although significant declines are recorded in the western part of the region and locally in the Sahelian countries of the Central and Eastern basins. The off-season harvests that have begun are improving food availability and providing income to households. In the Liptako Gourma region, continued and more violent attacks against the military and civilians continue to lead to an increase in IDPs and the deterioration or even loss of livelihoods.

  • The low availability of pasture locally in the pastoral areas of Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad is aggravated by insecurity, which greatly disrupts livestock movements. Poor grazing conditions remain a concern in western Mauritania and northern Senegal for the third year in a row and is leading to increased pressure on pastoral resources in western Mali by Mauritanian herds.

  • Market supplies remain regular and adequate as a result of the current harvest and above-average carryover stocks. However, regional trade is disrupted in several locations. The closure of Nigeria's land borders mainly hinders trade flows with neighboring Benin and Niger. Market functioning and access remain disrupted in the Lake Chad Basin, the Liptako-Gourma region and the Tibesti region due to conflict and insecurity. Local commodity prices are lower than last year and average levels in most markets. Regional price levels will follow normal seasonal trends - similar or below average in most countries. However, atypical trends are expected in conflict areas and those affected by trade restrictions.

  • Most of the region will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until May 2020, and in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some. However, the persistence of insecurity in northern Burkina Faso, central and northern Mali, western Niger, northwestern Nigeria, and the Lake Chad Basin will continue to increase the number of IDPs and refugees. Humanitarian aid will help to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in the Mopti and Gao regions of Mali, Diffa in Niger, and Lac in Chad.

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity continue to prevail in Tillabéry region in Niger, Soum and surrounding areas in Burkina Faso, eastern CAR, and English-speaking regions of Cameroon due to armed conflict and civil insecurity that significantly disrupt household livelihoods and greatly reduce the distribution of humanitarian assistance. FEWS NET estimates that 2.5 to 3.5 million people could be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse between June and August 2020 in the Liptako Gourma region. Households in Northeastern Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict continue to rely on humanitarian aid for food access and remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) particularly in Borno State and incidentally Yobe State. In adjacent areas that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, the food security situation could be similar or worse.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics