Continued price rises will limit food consumption for more poor households

During the dry season, harvests of market garden produce and other cereals, including maize, increase the availability and diversity of foodstuffs on the markets, and generate income for households.  In areas of conflict and insecurity (Liptako Gourma and those of the Lake Chad basin), the difficulties of gaining access to certain sites, and to agricultural inputs including fuel, further reduces the area planted. Pasture resources remain satisfactory. However, persistent insecurity in the pastoral zones of Lake Chad, Liptako-Gourma, the far north of Cameroon, north-west Nigeria and the Tibesti region of Chad could lead to an early decline of resources in areas where herds are concentrated, particularly along the Niger River in Mali.

Prices fell or remained stable from December 2022 to January 2023, largely because harvests continued to support the supply. Nevertheless, abnormal price rises persisted in areas affected by insecurity, notably the northernmost regions of Burkina Faso, which are experiencing shortages. In addition, market activity was reduced in Nigeria due to the scarcity of liquidity and the fall in currency exchange rates. Prices remain above the five-year average in the region, mainly due to low carryover stocks, restrictions on cereal exports, higher production costs, international market disruptions and insecurity in the Sahel. In the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea, prices reflect strong demand, high international prices, high production costs and a falling exchange rate - particularly in Nigeria, Ghana and Sierra Leone. Prices are likely to remain above average due to increased restocking needs including institutional purchases, persistent trade barriers and high transport costs, and will affect market access to food for many poor households dependent on casual labor.

The majority of areas are experiencing an improvement in food security to Minimal (IPC Phase 1), as the main harvests began in October and the market garden crops were cultivated from January to March. Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food insecurity is prevailing in January in the Diffa region and southern Maradi in Niger, the Kanem, Lac and Barh El Gazel regions in Chad, the Sanmatenga province in Burkina Faso, and in several LGAs in Borno and Yobe states in Nigeria, and will persist until May in Diffa and Maradi in Niger. In the rest of the above-mentioned areas, food insecurity will evolve into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and May 2023. During the same period, this level of food insecurity will also affect the Dababa and Mangalmé departments in Chad, the Liptako Gourma area in Mali, and the north and west of the Far North region in Cameroon.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are currently affecting the provinces of Yagha, Seno, and northern Namentenga in Burkina Faso, the Ménaka region in Mali, the western and northern regions of Tillaberi and Tahoua in Niger, and the northwestern and southwestern regions of Cameroon, western and southern Katsina, northern and southern Sokoto, eastern Niger, northern and central Zamfara, northwestern, northeastern and southeastern Kaduna, northeastern and southern Yobe, western and eastern Borno in Nigeria, and will persist until May 2023. From February onwards, the outcomes will extend to several other areas in Nigeria, as well as to the provinces of Yatenga, Bam, Sanmatenga, Komondjari, Gourma, Kompienga and Tapoa in Burkina Faso. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity in Burkina Faso's Soum and Oudalan provinces will persist until May 2023, and will extend to Yagha province from February 2023, all of which are affected by armed conflict and insecurity.