Insecurity and rising food prices continue to have a negative impact on the food security of poor households

The current off-season harvests in Sahelian countries are helping to boost food supplies and provide income for households, even if market garden production is average or even lower due to average to lower water levels and reduced access to market garden sites in conflict zones.  The availability of pastures and water points remains a concern in the agropastoral strip of Mauritania and the north-central regions of Mali, Niger and Chad, due to poor rainfall conditions in 2021. Insecurity, armed conflict and banditry are also limiting herd movements, affecting feed and livestock production in several areas (the Lake Chad Basin, the Sahel region of Burkina Faso, the Tapoa-Boppo pastoral zone in the eastern region of Burkina Faso, the Banibangou pastoral zone in the Tillabéry region of Niger, and the Yani grazing area straddling the Dosso and Tillabéry regions of Niger).

Insecurity and armed conflict continue to increase the number of displaced people in the region. As of January 25, 2022, 2,295,207 IDPs were registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma, 70 percent of them in Burkina Faso, and 5,536,188 IDPs in the Lake Chad Basin, 75 percent of them in Nigeria (IOM, January 2021). Typical livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance and people's access to basic social services are severely disrupted in the Lake Chad Basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-western and north-central Nigeria, the Tibesti region of Chad and the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon. 

Despite the latest rain harvests and those of the current off-season, supply remains below average in several countries in the region, especially in the Sahel, due to lower production and low levels of carryover stocks. In addition, flows remain below normal due to persistent insecurity and high transport costs, as well as disruptions linked to COVID-19, various national restrictions and the recent Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sanctions against Mali. Demand also remained atypical at above-average levels, due to the early exhaustion of household stocks and a greater need for stock replenishment on the part of all players. Last but not least, the depreciation of local currencies in coastal countries outside the franc zone continued. As a result, prices of basic foodstuffs, notably cereals, rose or remained stable compared with the previous month, and remain substantially above their average levels over the last five years across the region. 

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until May 2022, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some. Many poor urban households continue to suffer the residual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, with low purchasing power exacerbated by commodity price inflation. In conflict zones such as the Centre-Nord region of Burkina Faso, the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region of Niger, the Stress!  (IPC Phase 2 !) will remain under control until May 2022, thanks to food assistance. However, in Burkina Faso, the situation will continue to deteriorate in the provinces of Loroum, Yatenga, Soum, Oudalan, Séno, Yagha, Komondjari and Gourma, reaching Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to persistent insecurity and insufficient harvests from the rainy season. In Oudalan province, food consumption deficits and recourse to extreme coping strategies (begging, forced migration) could intensify between February and May, keeping IDPs and poor host households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes currently prevailing in the Tillabéry and northern Tahoua regions of Niger, the Lake region of Chad, north-western and north-eastern Nigeria, parts of north-western and south-western Cameroon and the Central African Republic, due to persistent conflict, will persist until May 2022. In the east of Mopti and Ménaka in Mali and the far north of Cameroon, also affected by conflict and low production, the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) that prevailed in September improved slightly in November with the new harvests, enabling households to move into Stress (IPC Phase 2). In Nigeria, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes currently underway in the areas most affected by the conflict in Borno State will persist until May 2022. In this country, food security conditions remain worrying for IDPs in both the northeast and the northwest, where access to food and income remains very limited, in addition to very limited humanitarian access.