Trade disruptions and food price hikes persist in conflict zones

Moderate rains in February in the Gulf of Guinea bimodal zone and their continuation into March augur well for timely planting. Off-season harvests underway in Sahelian countries continue to boost food supplies from above-average 2020/21 rainfed harvests. Access to pastures and watering holes, which are well available in the region, remains a concern for herds in areas affected by insecurity, conflict and banditry. Persistent insecurity continues to maintain high levels of displaced people in the region, including 1,681,985 in Liptako Gourma and 5,115,071 in the Lake Chad Basin (IOM, January 2021), with their livelihoods disrupted and largely dependent on humanitarian assistance.

Markets remain well supplied, but at below-average levels in much of the eastern basin, notably Nigeria. As a result, cross-border trade flows remain dynamic, but affected by COVID-19 restrictions. Conflict-related market disruptions persisted in the Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, the Tibesti region, north-western and north-central Nigeria, and the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon. Staple food prices are down or stable on the previous month, but remain generally higher than last year and above average due to strong demand for restocking in the face of average to below-average supply. Outside of conflict zones, where livestock prices are below average, elsewhere, their healthy weight keeps prices for small ruminants similar to or above average.

Looking ahead, market supplies of basic foodstuffs will be sufficient to meet demand throughout the consumption year. The seasonal rise in prices, with above-average levels, could be observed after March, given the expected above-average replenishment of merchant and institutional stocks. The slowdown in regional trade flows could persist as land borders continue to be closed to travellers as part of the fight against the spread of COVID-19.

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until May 2021, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some, including many urban households hard hit by COVID-19-related restrictive measures that have reduced the implementation of usual livelihoods, resulting in lower incomes and purchasing power. In areas affected by civil insecurity, such as the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, the Sanmatenga province in Burkina Faso, and the Lac region in Chad, Stressed!  (IPC Phase 2 !) outcomes will remain in place until May 2021, thanks to food assistance. 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will prevail until May 2021 among certain displaced households in Burkina Faso in the provinces of Bam, Namentenga, Loroum, Soum, Séno, Oudalan, Yagha, Gnagna and Komondjari, in the north, northwest and southeast of the Central African Republic, and in the Lake region of Chad, the Tillabéry region and north of Tahoua in Niger, in north-western and north-eastern Nigeria and in the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon, due to the persistence of conflict, the impact of flooding and the COVID-19 restrictions on livelihoods.  In Nigeria, IDPs in camps located in inaccessible areas near the Lake Chad Basin are in Emergency(IPC Phase 4) where access to food and income is very limited, in addition to reduced humanitarian access.