Key Message Update

The persistent deterioration of the security situation is worsening food security outcomes for many poor households

February 2020

January 2020

Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, decembre 2019 a janvier 2020: La plupart de la region en Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC), parties de Mali, Niger, Tchad, et Nigeria en Stresse (Phase 2 de l'IPC), partis de Niger, Cameroun, Republique Centrafricaine, Burkina Faso, et Nigeria en Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC), et Urgence (Phase 4 de l'IPC) dans le nord-est de Nigeria

February - May 2020

Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, fevrier a mai 2020: La plupart de la region en Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC), parties de Mali, Niger, Tchad, et Nigeria en Stresse (Phase 2 de l'IPC), partis de Niger, Cameroun, Republique Centrafricaine, Burkina Faso, et Nigeria en Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC), et Urgence (Phase 4 de l'IPC) dans le nord-est de Nigeria

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Off-season harvests have improved food availability and provided household incomes, except in conflict areas where harvests are lower than average. In the Liptako Gourma area, the persistence of armed attacks continues to lead to an almost daily increase in IDPs, the deterioration or even loss of livelihoods, and pressure on the resources of the host populations. The low availability of pasture locally in the pastoral areas of Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad is aggravated by insecurity, which greatly hampers livestock movements. Weak grazing remains a cause for concern in western Mauritania and northern Senegal for the third consecutive year and Mauritanian herds are putting increasingly strong pressure on resources in western Mali as a result.

  • Market supply remains stable at above-average levels with large carryover stocks. Demand remains below average, except in areas of deficit and insecurity. Market disruptions remain in the Great Lake Chad basin, Tibesti region, and Liptako-Gourma region. The closure of Nigeria's land borders continues to hamper internal and regional trade, mainly with Niger and Benin.

  • Prices for local staple foods are below average except in conflict areas. Supply will remain sufficient to meet demand, except in deficit and insecure areas. Prices will rise from March onwards as household stocks are depleted. The closure of Nigeria's land borders will put pressure on demand for cereals from Niger to Benin and the central basin. Cereal prices will be below average but are expected to be above last year's levels in several regional markets.

  • Most of the region will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until May 2020 and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some. However, the persistence of insecurity in northern Burkina Faso, central and northern Mali, western Niger, northwestern Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin will continue to increase the number of IDPs and refugees. Humanitarian aid will help maintain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in the regions of Mopti and Gao in Mali, Diffa in Niger, and Lake Chad.

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity continue to prevail in the Tillabéry region of Niger, Soum and surrounding areas of Burkina Faso, eastern CAR and English-speaking regions of Cameroon due to armed conflict and civil insecurity that significantly disrupt household livelihoods and greatly reduce the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Between June and September 2020, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) could occur in the Western Sahel and Liptako Gourma regions in Mali. Households in north-eastern Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict continue to depend on humanitarian assistance for food access and remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) particularly in Borno State and secondarily Yobe State. In adjacent areas that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, the food security situation could be similar or worse.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics