Concerning levels of food insecurity in conflict zones and certain pastoral areas

Final 2015/16 estimates indicate that regional cereal production was above average. This, along with normal trade flows, is assuring satisfactory supply levels of local foods on regional markets. Exceptions, however, are certain areas of Chad where rainfed and dry season harvests were below average and certain areas where civil insecurity continues to disrupt trade flows.

Good crop production, along with regular imports and average carry-over stocks in the Central Basin, is maintaining average cereal supplies while demand is at below-average levels. As a result, prices are either stable or down compared to average. However prices are above average in certain localized areas, such as those affected by civil insecurity, below-average crop production (Ghana) or increased maize demand from the poultry industry (Togo). In Ghana, the situation is amplified by the continued depreciation of the local currency. 

In Nigeria, the value of the Naira has depreciated by more than 30 percent between December 2015 and February 2016, due primarily to reduced revenues from the oil sector in 2015. This depreciation has reduced the purchasing power of consumers in Nigeria for imported products from international markets (ex. rice, wheat and manufactured goods) and for livestock and cash crops from the Sahel. This monetary crisis could contribute to reduced trade flows towards Nigeria and lower livestock prices in the Sahel. 

Due to normal livelihoods and favorable food availability, prices, and livestock-to-cereal terms of trade, the majority of households will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity until September. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes have already been observed in certain pastoral zones of Niger and Mali and agropastoral zones of Mauritania due to 1) below-average pastoral conditions and/or harvests (rainfed and flood recession) or 2) excessive livestock deaths in 2015 that reduced poor households’ herd sizes. This Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity will continue until September despite improving food consumption beginning in August. 

Despite a slight improvement in security conditions, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will persist until September in northeastern Nigeria, as well as in neighboring areas of Lake Chad, due to the continued negative impacts of civil insecurity on trade flows and household livelihoods.