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Persistently high prices will further limit access to food for poor households

  • Key Message Update
  • West Africa
  • December 2022
Persistently high prices will further limit access to food for poor households

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Despite the global shortage of fertilizers caused by the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, which has affected the production of certain staple crops such as maize and rice, cereal production forecasts for the 2022/23 crop year at the regional level stand at around 76.4 million tonnes, up seven percent and six percent, respectively, from the previous year and the five-year average (PREGEC). Root and tuber production prospects, estimated at 208.5 million tonnes, are also up two percent compared with last year, and is nine percent above average. With the exception of cotton production, which is affected by heavy infestations, the other main cash and industrial crops (cowpeas, groundnuts, sesame, soybeans and voandzou) are up compared with last year and with the five-year average.

    • The security situation in the Sahel continues to deteriorate, leading to population movements. On November 30, 2022, 2,411,197 displaced people were registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma, 66 percent of which were in Burkina Faso, and 6,034,686 displaced people in the Lake Chad basin, 73 percent of whom were in Nigeria (IOM). Due to the deteriorating security situation, livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance movements and access to basic social services are severely disrupted in the Great Lake Chad Basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-central and north-western Nigeria, the Tibesti region of Chad and the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon.

    • Prices generally remain well above average, mainly due to low carryover stocks, restrictions on cereal outflows, insecurity in the Sahel, strong export demand and the depreciation of national currencies in Gulf of Guinea coastal countries. Prices are further pushed up by international market tensions, as well as soaring fuel prices and their impact on transport costs. While regional cereal production is forecast to rebound from last year's sharp drop, prices are likely to remain above average due to increased restocking needs, persistent trade barriers and high transport costs in a context of generalized inflation.

    • The majority of areas are experiencing an improvement in food security to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) due to new harvests providing food and income for households. Stressred 2! (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity will persist from November to January in the Diffa region and southern Maradi in Niger, the Kanem, Lac and Barh El Gazel regions in Chad, the Sanmatenga province in Burkina Faso, and in several LGAs in Borno and Yobe states in Nigeria, until May. In other areas, the situation will evolve into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and May 2023. During the same period, this level of food insecurity will also affect the Dababa and Mangalmé departments in Chad, the Liptako Gourma area in Mali, and the north and west of the Far North region in Cameroon, which are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

    • The Crisis (IPC Phase 3) currently affecting the provinces of Yagha, Seno, and northern Namentenga in Burkina Faso, the Ménaka region in Mali, the western and northern regions of Tillaberi and Tahoua in Niger, the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon, western and southern Katsina, northern and southern Sokoto, and eastern Niger, northern and central Zamfara, north-western, north-eastern and south-eastern Kaduna, north-eastern and southern Yobe, western and eastern Borno in Nigeria, will persist until May 2023, and will extend to several other areas in the above-mentioned states of Nigeria, as well as to the provinces of Yatenga, Bam, Sanmatenga, Komondajari, Gourma, Kompienga and Tapoa in Burkina Faso.

    • Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity in Burkina Faso's Soum and Oudalan provinces will persist until May 2023, and will extend to the Yagha province from February 2023, all of which are affected by armed conflict and insecurity. In these provinces, a small proportion of the population is experiencing extreme variations in food consumption indicating Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes, with an increase in the number of people in this phase between February and May 2023.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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