Above-average prices throughout the consumption year will further limit access by poor households

According to the regional food security monitoring system run by CILSS, forecast cereal production for 2021/22 is down 1.8 percent on last year, but slightly up by 3.2 percent on the five-year average. The drop in cereal production compared with last year is likely to be more marked in Niger, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad, and is mainly due to the long dry spells that have impacted crop development and fruiting/maturation, reductions in acreage in areas affected by armed conflict, and the flooding observed in August in some places. Tuber production was up by 5 and 11% on last year and the five-year average respectively.

Insecurity and armed conflict continue to increase the number of displaced people in the region. As of November 26, 2021, 2,191,645 IDPs are registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma, 69 percent of them in Burkina Faso, and 5,462,244 IDPs in the Lake Chad Basin as of December 22, 2021, 76 percent of them in Nigeria (IOM, December 2021). Livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance movements and people's access to basic social services are severely disrupted in the Great Lake Chad Basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, northern Nigeria, the Tibesti region of Chad and the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon. 

Pasture production is below average in Niger, Mauritania, Mali, Senegal and Chad, leading to early transhumance of herds. Conflicts over the management of grazing areas could give cause for concern in Mali, which usually receives Mauritanian herds, but also in several areas in the central and eastern Sahel receiving herds from conflict zones. The average to below-average filling level of surface water points will provide average watering conditions. The early pastoral lean season from March onwards will have a greater impact on pastoral households in conflict zones, who have reduced access to pasture and markets, and are faced with theft and looting of livestock, rising cereal prices and unfavorable terms of trade.

In December, supplies continued to increase on the markets, but remained below average in much of the region due to low levels of destocking and the retention of cereals by producers. Demand is down seasonally, but remains above average due to increased restocking by traders, industries and even households anticipating high prices in the consumption year. As a result, staple food prices are stable or slightly down on the previous month, but still above the five-year average, particularly in Nigeria and Burkina Faso. Prices are likely to be above average throughout the marketing year, due to pressure from restocking demand, production cuts in the region, higher international import costs, and grain export restrictions in force in some countries of the region. 

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until May 2022, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some, including many poor urban households struggling to recover usual income levels, with low purchasing power exacerbated by commodity price inflation. In areas affected by civil insecurity, such as Burkina Faso's Centre-Nord region, Diffa, Tillabéry and the extreme south of Niger's Maradi region, the Stress!  (IPC Phase 2 !) will remain under control until May 2022, thanks to food assistance. However, in Burkina Faso, the situation will continue to deteriorate in the provinces of Loroum, Yatenga, Soum, Oudalan, Séno, Yagha, Komondjari and Gourma, reaching Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to persistent insecurity and insufficient harvests. In Oudalan province, food consumption deficits and recourse to begging or forced migration could intensify between February and May, keeping IDPs and host households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) currently prevailing in the North of the Tillabéry region and the East of the Tahoua region in Niger, the Lake region in Chad, in the North-West and North-East of Nigeria, in part of the North-West and South-West of Cameroon and in Central Africa due to persistent conflict, will persist until May 2022. In the east of Mopti and Ménaka in Mali and the far north of Cameroon, also affected by conflict and low production, the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) that prevailed in September improved slightly in November with the new harvests, enabling households to move into Stress (IPC Phase 2). In Nigeria, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes currently underway in the areas most affected by the conflict in Borno State will persist until May 2022. In this country, food security conditions remain worrying for IDPs in both the northeast and the northwest, where access to food and income is very limited, in addition to reduced humanitarian access.