High levels of food insecurity in conflict zones despite good agro-pastoral production

Agricultural production in West Africa in 2020/21 is expected to be 9, 11 and 38 percent above average for cereals, tubers and cash crops respectively. However, in some localities, particularly in the insecure/conflict zones of Liptako-Gourma, the Lake Chad Basin, north-western and north-central Nigeria, and the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon, there will be varying degrees of decline, mainly as a result of reductions in the area sown.

The good availability of water has favored an early start to off-season activities, which this year are mobilizing more players than usual. Income from these activities will be substantial for poor households. At pastoral level, fodder supplies and water points are good in all countries, but insecurity, conflict and banditry in the Lake Chad basin, Liptako-Gouma, the far north of Cameroon, north-west Nigeria and the Tibesti region are limiting herders' access to these resources. This could lead to an early deterioration in the body condition of the animals and a consequent fall in their market value.

The arrival of new harvests on the markets has led to a seasonal drop in staple food prices, but they remain higher than last year's levels and/or the five-year average, particularly in areas affected by civil insecurity and border restrictions. The recent measure to reopen Nigeria's land borders with its neighbors by the end of December will boost economic activity in the sub-region. However, the resurgence of new cases of COVID-19 contamination in several countries of the region since the beginning of December could lead to restrictive measures, albeit less restrictive than in April, which will delay the resumption of economic activities.  In Mali, shopping streets and leisure venues (restaurants, bars and discotheques) have recently been closed.

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until January 2021, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some, including many urban households hard hit by the COVID-19 restrictive measures due to reduced implementation of usual livelihoods, and lower incomes and purchasing power. In areas affected by civil insecurity, such as the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, the Sanmatenga province in Burkina Faso, and the Lac region in Chad, the Stress!  (IPC Phase 2 !) will remain under control until January 2021, thanks to planned food assistance. 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will prevail until May 2021 among certain displaced households in Burkina Faso in the provinces of Bam, Namentenga, Loroum, Soum, Séno, Oudalan, Yagha, Gnagna and Komondjari, and in the north, northwest and southeast of the Central African Republic,  in the Lake area of Chad, the Tillabéry region and north of Tahoua in Niger, in the north-west and north-east of Nigeria and in the north-west and south-west regions of Cameroon, due to the persistence of conflict and the impact of flooding on livelihoods.  In Nigeria, IDPs in camps located in inaccessible areas near the Lake Chad basin are likely to be in Emergency Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 4), where access to food and income is very limited.