Price increases, flooding, and insecurity drive high levels of food insecurity

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August was atypically rainy in the Sudano-Guinean and Sahelian regions of West Africa, allowing for satisfactory crop development. The green harvests of maize, beans, and peanuts, already available in some areas, are improving household access to food and incomes. The tuber harvests that began in July in the Gulf of Guinea region continue in August in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, also supplying Sahelian markets. The heavy rainfall this August caused significant damage and loss of life in several countries (Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Chad, Central African Republic). On the pastoral side, despite good surface water availability and the regeneration of vegetation supporting livestock feeding and body conditions, the terms of trade remain unfavorable for herders in livestock markets. Furthermore, the persistence of insecurity, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria, makes it difficult for animals to access certain grazing areas, leading to their concentration in relatively secure regions.
The security crisis persists in the Sahel and continues to cause population displacement, although returnees are being recorded in some areas. In August 2024, 3,150,710 displaced persons were recorded in the central Sahel and in Liptako-Gourma, of which 67 percent were in Burkina Faso, while 6,067,908 were recorded in the Lake Chad basin, with 74 percent in Nigeria. Livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance activities, and access to basic social services are heavily disrupted in these areas. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the security crisis is expanding to coastal countries (Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, and Benin), with approximately 138,232 displaced persons recorded in August 2024.
Prices peaked seasonally in July and August across the Sahel during the lean season, exacerbated by recent flooding that hindered trade activities. Prices remained significantly above their five-year average throughout the region due to factors such as below-average stocks, high demand, delayed institutional purchasing processes, prolonged insecurity, macroeconomic challenges, cross-border trade restrictions, and high transportation costs. Seasonal price declines are expected with the main rainy season harvests in September and October, as already observed in some coastal areas. This initial drop in food prices has been the main factor contributing to a slowdown in overall inflation in Nigeria (from 33.4 percent in July to 32.2 percent in August) for the second consecutive month. However, prices are expected to remain high due to recent agroclimatic events potentially affecting crop performance, ongoing insecurity, and the persistence of trade restrictions, including the latest measures taken by Ghana anticipating production deficits.
The majority of areas are expected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until January 2025, with some areas facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In regions affected by civil insecurity, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in the west, east, and north-central regions of Niger, the Sahelo-Saharan band, and the Lake region in Chad, as well as in the west and northwest of Mali, the extreme west, center, and east of Nigeria, and in the southwest, northwest, and extreme north of Cameroon. These outcomes are expected to persist until January 2025.
Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected in the provinces of Loroum, Soum, Bam, Oudalan, and Tapoa in Burkina Faso until January 2025. The Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes currently observed in inaccessible LGAs in northeastern Nigeria (Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Bama) are expected to persist until January 2025 due to extremely limited food stocks among households, disruptions to livelihoods, and limited access to markets and humanitarian assistance. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will persist in the Ménaka region of Mali through September 2024 due to deteriorated security conditions limiting market access for populations and the pronounced deterioration of their livelihoods.
Starting in October 2024, most areas will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until January 2025, thanks to the availability of harvests that will improve seasonal access to food. However, in areas affected by civil insecurity, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) will be observed in the provinces of Loroum, Bam, Komandjari, Seno, Soum, Yagha, Oudalan, Kompienga, and Tapoa in Burkina Faso. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will be observed in the regions of Tillabéry, Tahoua, Maradi, and Diffa in Niger. Due to improved food access for poor households through livestock products, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will also be observed in Ménaka, Mali, in the same regions of Chad mentioned above, and in the northwest and southwest regions of Cameroon. However, in Nigeria, the inaccessible LGAs in northeastern Nigeria (Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Bama) will remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) until January 2025 due to below-average household food access and livelihoods.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. West Africa Key Message Update August 2024: Price increases, flooding, and insecurity drive high levels of food insecurity, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.