Persistent conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and maintain high levels of food insecurity

The Sudano-Guinean and Sahelian zones were generally well watered in August, enabling crops to develop satisfactorily.  Green harvests of maize and groundnuts are available, contributing to household food supplies and access to income. Tuber harvests, which began in July in the Gulf of Guinea and continued in August in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, are also filling Sahelian markets. The torrential rains of August caused widespread damage and loss of life in several countries (Niger, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, Cameroon). The availability of surface water and the emergence of vegetation are supporting livestock feed. Crop prospects remain average to good, but significantly below-average agricultural production is expected in areas affected by insecurity, due to reduced access to cropland and poor access to agricultural inputs.

The persistence, and even extension, of insecurity and armed conflict continue to lead to massive population movements in the region, particularly in Liptako Gourma, with an increase in the abandonment of fields for security reasons. As of July 28, 2021, 2,003,986 displaced people are registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma, 67% of them in Burkina Faso, and 5,267,685 displaced people in the Lake Chad basin, 75% of them in Nigeria (IOM). Livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance movements and access to basic social services for most of these displaced people are severely disrupted.

Market supplies in July were below average, but still sufficient to meet growing demand during the lean season. This demand is above average in several countries, causing tensions on flows. Staple food prices remained above the five-year average, particularly in Nigeria, which recorded its third consecutive month of stable inflation. Insecurity and conflict in the Lake Chad Basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-western and north-central Nigeria, the Tibesti region and the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon continue to hamper market operations and access. Demand for livestock increased considerably due to the Tabaski holiday, but livestock trade in the region remained below average due to trade restrictions and insecurity. 

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until January 2022, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some, including many poor urban households struggling to recover usual income levels and reduced purchasing power. In areas affected by civil insecurity, such as the north of the Centre-Nord region, the provinces of Soum, Séno, Yagha, Komondjari, Lorum and Yatenga in Burkina Faso, the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, Stress!  (IPC Phase 2 !) will remain until September 2021 in Burkina Faso and January 2022 in Niger, thanks to food assistance.  

Crisis! (IPC Phase 3 !) currently prevailing in the Oudalan province of Burkina Faso will persist until September before evolving into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October with the harvest.  The Crisis (IPC Phase 3) currently prevailing in the north of the Tillabéry region and the east of the Tahoua region in Niger, the Lake region in Chad, northwest and northeast Nigeria, parts of northwest and southwest Cameroon and the Central African Republic due to persistent conflict, will persist until January 2022, and from October will affect other provinces in Burkina Faso, including Soum, Yagha and northern Lorum.  In the east of Mopti in Mali and the far north of Cameroon, also affected by conflict and low production, the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) that lasted until September could improve slightly in October with the new harvests, putting households under Stress (IPC Phase 2). In Nigeria, Emergency Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 4), which runs until September in the most conflict-affected areas of Borno State, will persist until January 2022. In this country, food security conditions remain worrying for IDPs in both the north-east and north-west, where access to food and income is very limited, in addition to reduced humanitarian access.