Atypical price rises could be exacerbated by the Ukrainian crisis and have a greater impact on poorer households

Final gross cereal production for 2021/22, estimated in the March 2022 PREGEC, stands at around 73 million tonnes, down two percent on last year and up three percent on the five-year average. Compared with last year, production fell considerably in Niger (-39%), Mali (-15%) and Burkina Faso (-10%). The rainy season that began in late February/early March in the bimodal Gulf of Guinea zone improved in April, with moderate to intense rainfall improving humidity levels in southern Cameroon and Nigeria. In the Sudanian and Sahelian zones, soil preparation is underway for the next planting season. Seasonal forecasts for 2022, drawn up by regional (AGRHYMET, ACMAD) and national centers, indicate average to deficit rainfall for the Gulf of Guinea, and a wet season for Sahelian countries, with early to average start dates and late to average end dates, short-to-medium dry spells in the west and medium-to-long dry spells in the east, and overall surplus to average runoff in the main river basins, which can lead to localized flooding, especially in the basins of major rivers.

Persistent insecurity and armed conflict continue to cause population displacement in the Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-western and north-central Nigeria and the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon. Typical livelihoods, activities linked to markets and trade, transhumance and access to basic social services have been severely disrupted, with an upsurge in fatalities, particularly in Burkina Faso, and the expansion of attacks by armed groups to certain coastal countries on the Gulf of Guinea, in this case the northern areas of Benin.

Commodity prices continue to rise throughout the region, and remain well above average. Reduced production and insecurity-related disruptions limiting supply, particularly in the Sahel, strong export demand in coastal countries, cross-border trade restrictions introduced by several countries in the region, the lingering effects of COVID-19, rising world food prices, soaring transport costs and the depreciation of currencies outside the franc zone have been the main determining factors behind these atypical price levels. These inflationary trends will be further exacerbated by increased demand during the lean season, due to early depletion of stocks, large anticipated demands for institutional stock replenishment, Ramadan and the Ukrainian crisis and its knock-on effects.

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until September 2022, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some. In the civilly insecure regions of Diffa and the extreme south of Maradi in Niger, Stress! (IPC Phase 2 !) will remain until September 2022, thanks to food assistance. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) justified by persistent insecurity/armed conflict and insufficient winter harvests in 2021, affecting the Lorum, Yatenga, Soum, Seno, Yagha, Komondjari, Bam and Sanmatenga provines in Burkina Faso, the Lac region in Chad, the Ménaka region, the east of the Mopti region, the south of the Gao and Timbuktu regions in Mali, the north and west of the Tillaberi region and the west of the Tahoua region in Niger, and the northwest and northeast of Nigeria will persist until September. In Burkina Faso, Chad and Nigeria, it will spread to other areas from June onwards.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes currently prevailing in the Far North, North-West and South-West of Cameroon and in Central Africa, due to persistent conflict, will persist until September 2022. However, in the north of Cameroon's South-West and North-West regions, the food situation will improve slightly from June/July onwards, thanks to new harvests, enabling households to move into Stress (IPC Phase 2). In Oudalan and northern Soum in Burkina Faso, and northern and western Borno in Nigeria, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes due to armed conflict will persist until September 2022 throughout Soum province and other LGAs in Borno, with food security conditions for IDPs and host households with very limited access to food and income.