Insecurity in conflict zones and food price inflation could further affect household food security

Moderate rains continue to be recorded in April in the bimodal zone of the Gulf of Guinea countries. Seasonal rainfall forecasts for the Gulf of Guinea, drawn up by regional (AGRHYMET, ACMAD) and national centers, indicate rainfall amounts for the main agricultural season equivalent to or higher than seasonal averages, and overall average to surplus runoff in most coastal basins. The global forecasts currently available from NOAA also suggest above-average 2021 rainfall in the Sahel. These rainfall conditions are favorable for an average or above-average 2020-2021 agricultural season. In addition, the final results for the 2020/21 crop year reveal cereal production in the Sahel and West Africa of 74.3 million tonnes, stable compared with the previous year and 9% up on the average for the last five years.

The availability of fodder and water is generally satisfactory, but access to pasture remains limited in several zones of civil insecurity, with a concentration of animals in the most secure areas, with a risk of early degradation of resources. However, livestock prices remain stable compared with the average for the region, with a downward trend for cattle, especially in Chad and Niger, due to lower export demand, mainly to Nigeria.

Persistent insecurity and armed conflict continue to drive massive population movements in the region with, 1,754,223 displaced people in Liptako-Gourma of which 65 percent in Burkina Faso and 5,194,998 displaced people in the Lake Chad Basin of which 75 percent in Nigeria (IOM, February-March 2021). Livelihoods, market and trade-related activities and access to basic social services for most of these displaced people are severely disrupted.

Significant rises in food prices (over 30 percent or more compared to the five-year average) have been observed in several countries or certain country markets (Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad and Cameroon). The main causes of this regional surge in food prices are currency depreciations and inflations, especially in Nigeria, and near- or below-average production in the face of above-average demands for restocking in several countries in the region, which have been accentuated by the impact of movement restriction measures linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. With the start of Ramadan scheduled for mid-April, more significant price rises could be observed, particularly for local fresh produce, for which demand will be higher.

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until May 2021, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some, including many urban households hard hit by the residual effects of the COVID-19 restrictive measures (reduced implementation of usual livelihoods, lower incomes and purchasing power). The Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, and the Sanmatenga province in Burkina Faso, will remain in Stress!  (IPC Phase 2) until May 2021, thanks to food assistance. The Crisis (IPC Phase 3) currently prevailing in the north and northeast of Burkina Faso, the Tillabéry region and the north of Tahoua in Niger, the Lake region of Chad, the northwest and northeast of Nigeria, the far north of Cameroon and the Central African Republic due to persistent conflict, will persist until September. The Crisis (IPC Phase 3) affecting North-West and South-West Cameroon until June could evolve into Stress (IPC Phase 2) in July with the new harvests. In Nigeria, IDPs in camps located in inaccessible areas near the Lake Chad Basin are in Emergency Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 4), where access to food and income is very limited, in addition to reduced humanitarian access.