Green Harvests in the Forest Zone

According to the World Health Organization’s September 23 Ebola situation report, there were a total of three new confirmed cases of Ebola during the past 21 days in the Forecariah and Conakry prefectures. The number of new Ebola cases will continue to decline between now and December 2015, which will provide favorable conditions for the resumption of various economic activities.

The preliminary results of a recent 2015 SMART survey indicate a global acute malnutrition (GAM) prevalence of eight percent in Guinea. This prevalence is similar to national GAM levels reported before the Ebola outbreak in 2012, according to that year’s Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). The prevalence of GAM in 2015 was found to be highest in Kankan (9.3 percent) but still below 2012 levels (17.9 percent).

Food security outcomes are improving with the start of green harvests in the forest zone and the continuation of humanitarian interventions by the government and its partners (ex. free distributions, subsidized cereal sales, and cash-for-work programs). However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity will continue throughout the country through the end of September 2015 due to the residual effects of the Ebola outbreak on many household income sources.

In light of the good progression of the current agricultural season, this year’s harvests are expected to be average to above average. This favorable agricultural outlook and the regularity of rice imports reinforces the most likely scenario for October to December of a return to normal seasonal trends and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

For more detailed analysis, see the Remote Monitoring Update for August 2015.