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Harvest outlook favorable despite localized flooding

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Guinea
  • September 2013
Harvest outlook favorable despite localized flooding

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  • Key Messages
  • Forecast to December 2013
  • Key Messages
    • Flooding that was more or less typical for the season was reported in August. Though infrastructure was temporarily disrupted, no significant impact on food security is expected.

    • Thanks to a good harvest in 2012/13, the green harvesting currently underway, and the favorable outlook for the main harvest in September and October, food insecurity in Guinea will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until December.

    AREA

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    FORECAST ANOMALIES

    No anomalies expected to have a significant impact on food security are observed or projected during the forecast period.


    Forecast to December 2013

    Guinea saw more rainfall than usual over the past 30 days, except in the far south. Widespread localized flooding damaged homes and infrastructure, but while the scope of the problem was above average, it was not exceptional. No significant increase in food insecurity is expected in affected households due to the low impact on crop development and other livelihood strategies.

    In the far south (Nzérékoré and Yomou), localized rainfall shortages were seen in late July and early August even though drought is rare in these areas, which normally receive significant rain. As a result, some households had to re-plant. However, the government’s technical services reported that the area has received regular rainfall since the end of August and that conditions on most of the affected land have normalized.

    In general, water conditions continue to favor crop growth, and the harvest will likely be significantly above average. Prices will continue to fall seasonably until December. This state of affairs could improve accessibility for poor households, allow seasonal economic activities to resume, and maintain work opportunities for poor households. Food insecurity will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until December.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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