Good harvest outlook translates into minimal food insecurity

• Due to the good spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall through the end of September, crops are in advanced stages of development, with harvesting activities for maize, sorghum, pulses, and lowland rice starting on time in certain areas. 

• Harvests of cereals and other crops are expected to be generally above-average throughout the country. This, along with stable food prices and normal livelihoods, will drive Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels of acute food insecurity through March 2014.

• Possible political demonstrations in the wake of the parliamentary elections held in early October could lead to temporary, localized shutdowns of markets and other public services. However, this should not significantly affect market supplies or food prices, and households should continue to have regular food access.

Cumulative rainfall estimates (RFE) for April 1 through September 30, 2013 indicate that rainfall levels were 10 to 50 percent above average in most areas of the country (Figure 2). This suggests good crop development, as well as a good outcome for the main growing season, which runs from April through October. National-level harvest forecasts from the National Bureau of Food and Agricultural Statistics are predicting above-average production levels for cereals and other crops this year.

October marks the end of the July to September lean season. Food security conditions across the country are steadily improving due to an increase in food availability with the normal progression of the October harvest. Market supplies are expected to be good and households should be able to restock their food stocks to normal levels through March 2014. In general, prices between August and September were stable due to good carry-over stocks from the last growing season. However, in line with normal seasonal trends, September prices for locally grown rice and maize on the Madina (Conakry) market increased eight percent compared to August due to strong demand at the end of the lean season, as well as low market supply as early harvests had not yet reached this market. Demonstrations associated with the parliamentary elections in October could temporarily shut down markets during the coming weeks. However, this is not expected to interfere with ability of large traders to supply markets normally nor is it expected to jeopardize food access for poor households.

With soil moisture conditions resulting in good crop development and above-average harvests, all areas of the country are expected to be food secure. Markets will continue to be well stocked and food prices will steadily decline in line with normal seasonal trends through the end of the harvest period in December. Moreover, good water levels in seasonal lakes and other bodies of water should enable off-season crop production (November and April) to begin on time. The seasonal resumption of various economic activities including harvesting activities, gathering straw, petty trade work, and labor opportunities relating to the mining sector should improve incomes and food access for poor households, keeping acute food insecurity at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels through March 2014.