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Above-average harvests, relatively stable prices

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Guinea
  • November 2013
Above-average harvests, relatively stable prices

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected outlook through March 2014
  • Key Messages
    • The joint CILSS/FEWS NET/FAO/WFP/Government harvest assessment, conducted at the end of October, estimated cereal production for the 2013/2014 growing season at 3,430,591 metric tons. This production figure represents a six percent increase from last year’s levels and a 20 percent increase compared to the five-year average.

    • Due to the good crop production outlook, seasonal economic activities, such as farm labor work, are providing poor households with normal incomes and are helping households preserve their livelihoods. In addition, an improvement in food availability is contributing to a stabilization of food prices and is keeping acute food insecurity at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels through at least March 2014.

     

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    There are no anomalies expected to have a major impact on food security at this time or during the remainder of the outlook period.

     


    Projected outlook through March 2014

    The joint CILSS/FEWS NET/WFP/FAO/Government harvest assessment, conducted at the end of October, estimated cereal production for the 2013/14 growing season at 3,430,591 metric tons. This figure represents a six percent increase from the 2012/2013 season and 20 percent increase compared to the five-year average. In addition, cassava production is projected to be approximately 1,755,763 metric tons, up five percent from last year and 15 percent compared to the five-year average. These production estimates are based on: (1) the normal continuation of rainfall across the country into November; (2) the absence of any major crop pest infestations; and (3) the sizeable volume of government assistance in the form of fertilizer, improved seeds, pesticides, and farm implements provided to farmers. These above-average harvests will enable households to replenish their food stocks and will cause them to be less dependent on market purchases for staple foods than usual. Land preparation activities for off-season crops are already underway and are creating good employment opportunities for poor households. Off-season harvests between February and April 2014 are expected to be average.

    Ongoing harvests (between September and January) and the start of crop marketing activities (since the beginning of October) have visibly improved food security conditions across the country. In addition, markets are well-stocked with imported rice from large carry-over trader inventories. Domestic trade flows from surplus production areas to deficit production areas are continuing normal.

    For all markets tracked by FEWS NET, imported rice prices in early November ranged from 4,000 to 5,000 FG/kg, which is similar to prices observed during the lean season (July to September). Prices for locally grown rice on most markets ranged from 5,000 to 7,000 FG/kg and were also stable between October and November. However, prices on the Nzérékoré market decreased 19 percent compared to the lean season (August) as market supplies improved with the arrival of newly harvested crops. The continuation of crop marketing activities across the country will help facilitate normal food access for most households.

    Seasonal economic activities, such as harvesting, crop sales, farm labor, and off-season land preparation, are underway and are providing poor households with opportunities to generate normal income levels. This is also helping to improve household access to staple foods and will keep acute food insecurity at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels through at least March 2014.

    Figures Calendrier saisonnier pour une année typique

    Figure 1

    Calendrier saisonnier pour une année typique

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Calendrier saisonnier pour une année typique

    Source: SIPAG GUINEE

    Prix du kg du riz importé sur les principaux marchés suivis en Guinée

    Figure 3

    Prix du kg du riz importé sur les principaux marchés suivis en Guinée

    Source: SIPAG GUINEE

    Figure 4

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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