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Stabilité des prix et sources de revenu normales assurent une insécurité alimentaire minimale

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Guinea
  • May 2014
Stabilité des prix et sources de revenu normales assurent une insécurité alimentaire minimale

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected outlook through September 2014
  • Key Messages
    • The 2014/2015 agricultural season is progressing normally with soil preparation, agricultural labor, and the beginning of planting. These activities are providing poor households with normal levels of income and allowing them to meet their essential needs without resorting to negative coping strategies.
    • Currently, food availability is being regularly reinforced by rice imports from the international market, and the transfer of stocks from surplus production to deficit production zones. both of these are insuring regular and adequate food supply and are contributing to stable demand and the seasonal evolution of prices.
    • Most households will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity from now through September 2014.
    Zone

    Current anomalies

    Projected anomalies

    No current or projected anomalies of concern are expected in Guinea.

     


    Projected outlook through September 2014

    Seasonal forecasts of agro-climatic and hydrological conditions by the ACMED for CILSS/ECOWAS countries have forecast normal to below-normal levels of cumulative rainfall in Guinea, with relatively large rainfall deficits in coastal areas of the country. However, based on the country’s normally high rainfall totals, FEWS NET is assuming that there will be adequate rainfall activity for the 2014/2015 growing season. The season is currently getting off to a normal start. The satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE) for April 1-May 10 (Figure 1) shows average levels of rainfall in the central reaches of the country and above-average rainfall in the south. This should ensure the proper growth and development of crops already in the ground, such as yams and maize, and is creating extremely favorable conditions for the gradual planting of other crops. Agricultural preparation activities, such as land preparation work, farm labor, and crop planting activities are going smoothly and generating normal levels of income, enabling poor households to meet their basic needs and maintain their staple food access. However, there are moderate to severe rainfall deficits in certain parts of the north and in coastal areas. However, according to reports by specialized government agencies, the situation is not very alarming since the planting period in these areas normally extends from May through June.

    There are still normal, regular market supplies of locally grown food crops such as rice, maize, onions, yams, palm oil, eggplants, dry peppers, and fonio, which maintained household food demand on local markets in May. These supplies are bolstered by an ongoing smooth flow of regular imports from the international market. Thus, in general, there was little movement in cereal prices on most markets tracked by FEWS NET between March and April. However, in line with normal seasonal trends, April prices for locally grown rice inched upwards by six percent in Kindia and nine percent in Conakry, and maize prices rose by eight percent in Labé and seven percent in Conakry, driven by the steady growth in demand from poor, market-dependent households with the normal depletion of their food stocks.

    Normal start-of-season conditions are promoting normal, renewed pasture growth in pastoral areas and encouraging nomadic populations remain in their current locations. This is improving grazing and watering conditions for livestock and enabling pastoral households to maintain their food access, with normal levels of income from sales of livestock and animal products. Terms of trade are still in favor of pastoralists.

    As far as health conditions are concerned, the rate of transmission in the Ebola fever outbreak, which has claimed more than 100 lives in Guinea since January, is down sharply as a result of the rigorous treatment and awareness-raising measures taken by the government and its partners. This has played an important part in helping to reopen the country’s border with Senegal and to restore the flow of trade between the forestery zone and other parts of the country.

    Very poor and poor households affected by last year’s floods in Dinguiraye, Kankan, Siguiri, and Tougue could continue to face food security problems over the coming months due to the earlier-than-usual depletion of their food stocks and their heightened market dependence, even with stable sources of income and stable market prices. These households will be unable to engage in nonfood spending on items such as health care and social events (trips, marriages, baptisms, and social or school celebrations) or to diversify their diets (increased rice consumption), and may resort to gathering wild plant foods to bolster their food consumption.  Most of these households will continue to face Stressed levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 2) throughout the outlook period (May through September).

    Normal incomes from income-generating activities such as sales of livestock and forest products, farm labor, land preparation work, and crop planting activities are enabling poor households in all livelihood zones to protect their livelihoods and, at the very least, meet their basic food needs. This should hold acute food insecurity at Minimal levels (Phase 1, IPC 2.0) through September of this year. However, the premature depletion of the food stocks of poor households in flood-stricken areas (representing less than 20 percent of the population of these areas) and their growing market dependence could trigger Stressed food security outcomes (IPC Phase 2), with reductions in the quality and quantity of household food consumption and cuts in nonfood spending. 

     

     

    Figures Figure 2. Cumulative seasonal rainfall (RFE) anomaly for the period from April 1-May 10, 2014, compared with the five-year av

    Figure 1

    Figure 2. Cumulative seasonal rainfall (RFE) anomaly for the period from April 1-May 10, 2014, compared with the five-year average.

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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