Adequate market supplies and stable prices despite the onset of the lean season

• Households directly or indirectly affected by the Ebola epidemic will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes through September 2015 due to the residual effects of the Ebola outbreak on their incomes. However, in Boké, the impacts of the outbreak on stock-building activities between December and February and on typical income sources were relatively limited. As a result, most households in Boké will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

• The ongoing growing season is proceeding smoothly, with average to good rainfall conditions for land preparation, planting, and crop maintenance work. This is creating more job opportunities for poor households and is helping them maintain their food access through market purchase.

• Even with the onset of the lean season, markets are still normally supplied with cereals with the flow of food from surplus production areas, regular rice imports from the international market, and the offloading of trader and farmer inventories due to the normal start, thus far, to the 2015/2016 growing season. In general, cereal prices are stable or in line with normal seasonal trends.

According to the June 17^th World Health Organization Ebola Situation Report, there was been a total of 35 new confirmed cases of Ebola in Guinea in the last 21 days. The new reported cases were all in Forécariah, Dubréka, Boké, Conakry, Fria, and Kindia prefectures. The government is currently imposing quarantine measures in certain villages and districts within these prefectures in an effort to stop the virus from spreading to other cities. These quarantine measures, in and of themselves, are not of sufficient importance to trigger a deterioration in the food security situation. However, the number of new Ebola cases is expected to steadily decline compared with previous weeks’ levels between now and September 2015.

An analysis of satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) shows that the rains are steadily advancing northwards, as usual, over the course of June. Cumulative rainfall estimates (RFE) for June 10^th through June 20^th show average to well-above-average rainfall levels in most parts of the country (Figure 3). However, there are reports of a few small to moderate rainfall deficits in the far northern and northeastern reaches of the country which, at this juncture, are not significantly affecting the progress of the growing season. In general, the June rains helped maintain good water conditions conducive to the timely planting of different types of crops and helped spur the growth and development of early-planted crops in the north-central part of the country. In addition, the current price of labor across the country ranges from 15,000 to 30,000 GNF, which is on par with figures for the pre-Ebola period. This is providing poor households with a normal stream of income, enabling them to meet their basic needs and maintain their staple food access.

Pastoral conditions have visibly improved with the good start of the rainy season, which is helping to spur new pasture growth and the replenishment of animal watering holes. However, livestock sales are reportedly below average due to the combined effects of weak local demand, caused by low household purchasing power, and reduced exports to normal destination countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Gambia, and Guinea Bissau, driven by fears of contracting Ebola. As a result, prices fell between the first quarter of 2014 and the same quarter of 2015 on most surplus and assembly markets, such as Conakry. The sharpest price declines of over 20 percent were for male goats on the Dalaba market, sheep on the Pita market, and cows on the Dabola market, all of which are located in major livestock-producing areas.

However, normal steady rainfall activity through July and increased demand with the beginning of Ramadan will help end the lean season for pastoral populations, further improving food security conditions in pastoral areas. This will improve the physical condition and market value of livestock and boost milk consumption and terms of trade for pastoral households.

According to FEWS NET’s key informants in Guinea, seasonal income from normal sources such as fishing, sales of charcoal and palm oil, and the gathering of wild plant products is enabling households to maintain their food access. On the other hand, income levels from other sources such as petty trade, craft trades, hunting, and mining labor are still below-average with the reduced market activities and weak household purchasing power. This trend will continue for the remainder of the outlook period, driven by an unfavorable economic climate, and could curtail household food access.

Market supplies of foodstuffs such as rice, yams, and palm oil for the month of June were normal. In general, May prices for locally grown and imported cereals were stable or down from April levels with the regular influx of imports from the international market and good market inventories of locally grown crops. This price stability is helping to facilitate food access for poor and market-dependent households. However, the increase in trade flows to other local markets across the country and to Mali, Senegal, and Liberia drove prices for palm oil in Nzérékoré and potatoes in Labé up by 16 percent, though the volume of trade is still smaller than usual. Prices on surplus markets are still lower than at the same time last year due to lower trade volumes from these areas to normal destinations and low industrial demand as a result of the Ebola outbreak. The sharpest price declines of over 25 percent were observed for potatoes in Conakry, rubber in Nzérékoré, and yams in Kankan. This represents a loss of income for growers, which is limiting their food access compared with the same time last year.

According to information supplied by the Regional Departments of Agriculture in Kindia and Nzérékoré, a number of charitable organizations, ACF (Action Against Hunger), WFP, UNICEF, and FAO all have ongoing non-medical humanitarian assistance programs for Ebola victims providing mainly food, cash, and farm inputs (seeds, fertilizer, and plant health products). These operations are helping to boost agricultural productivity while, at the same time, reducing the vulnerability of poor households during the current growing season.

The food security situation of poor households and households affected by the Ebola epidemic in most parts of the country is a continuing source of concern with the steady depletion of food stocks and a harsher than usual lean season. The overall low purchasing power of poor households will limit their dietary diversity and force them to cut back their nonfood spending and consume larger than usual quantities of wild plant foods. As a result, these households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of acute food insecurity through at least the month of September.

However, given the low impact of the Ebola outbreak on food trade and stock-building activities during the marketing season (between December and February), most households in the Boké area are able to make effective use of their livelihood assets. They are also able to generate a normal stream of income despite the appearance of a few new cases of Ebola, which are not yet at levels that would undermine food security conditions. Thus, these households could continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between now and September 2015.