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Food insecurity will remain Minimal until the next harvest in September

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Guinea
  • June 2014
Food insecurity will remain Minimal until the next harvest in September

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected outlook through September 2014
  • Key Messages
    • Agricultural activities for the 2014/2015 season are progressing normally, increasing labor opportunities for poor households.
    • Pastoral conditions are improving with the normal start of seasonal rains favoring the regeneration of pastures and water sources. This will translate into increased milk consumption, terms of trade, and revenues from the sale of livestock and related products, all of which will contribute to stable food security conditions for poor pastoral households.
    • Cereal availability will be sufficient to guarantee normal and regular supplies on the market, to meet demand, and to guarantee a normal, seasonal evolution of prices. As a result, acute food insecurity will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through September 2014. This report is being translated to English.

    ZONE

    Current anomalies

    Projected Anomalies

    There are no anomalies that are expected to have a major impact on food security at this time or during the outlook period

     


    Projected outlook through September 2014

    An analysis of decadal satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) from April 1 to May 30, 2014 shows significant rainfall totals above the seasonal five-year average in all of the country's farming areas (fig. 2). This situation is allowing crops that have already been planted, such as yams and maize, to grow normally and is creating highly favorable conditions for planting other crops.

    However, according to the outlook of the Regional Climate Outlook Forum for West African countries, rainfall totals from June through September 2014 are expected to be below the seasonal average in a large part of the country. Nevertheless, given the country's significant rainfall totals, FEWS NET is assuming that average rainfall volumes will be adequate for the 2014/2015 growing season.

    The growing season is continuing normally with land preparation and crop planting and maintenance activities under way. In the absence of any significant agroclimatic shock, this situation will continue throughout the lean season from July through September. Other income generating activities such as sales of poultry, livestock, and bush products will continue normally and produce normal labor and income opportunities for poor households.

    Supplies of locally produced cereals such as rice, maize, millet, and fonio are high, with the transfer of stocks held by merchants and large producers to the markets and the normal onset of the rainy season. This, in addition to a regular flow of rice imports from the international market and the influx of locally produced foodstuffs such as onions, yams, palm oil, eggplants, and dry peppers on the market, continued to keep prices stable on most reference markets in April and May. However, prices edged slightly upwards in May in line with normal seasonal trends. The price of locally produced rice rose 5 percent in Kindia, while maize prices rose 11 percent in Labé with the seasonal increase in household demand on markets as poor households deplete their food stocks, as is normal.

    With the celebration of Ramadan in July, household demand for cereals, particularly millet, will likely increase, putting downward pressure on market supplies and pushing prices upwards or keeping them high on local markets. This could make it difficult for most highly market-dependent households to access cereals despite average to above average food availability.  

    The situation will be even more difficult for poor households affected by last year's floods in Dinguiraye, Kankan, Siguiri, and Tougue. With the earlier than normal depletion of their food stocks and their increased dependence on the markets, these households will resort to atypical strategies such as abandoning some health, education, and investment spending and ceremonies, and decreasing social assistance. The food security outlook for these households will therefore be less favorable on the whole during the lean period from July through September.

    Livestock grazing and watering conditions have improved significantly with the successful start to the growing season for rainfed crops. Assuming rainfall continues normally, the pastoral lean season will end in July in several areas of the country. Food security conditions in pastoral areas could improve during the coming months with the improved physical condition and market value of livestock. Terms of trade remain favorable to pastoralists.

    Normal livelihood strategies, normal supplies of locally produced foodstuffs and imported rice, and stable market prices are allowing poor households to at least meet their basic food needs. As a result, most of these households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through September 2014. However, food insecurity conditions for poor households who were much more affected by the 2013/2014 floods will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), marked by reduced food intake and the consumption of wild foods.

    Figures Calendrier saisonnier dans une année typique

    Figure 1

    Calendrier saisonnier dans une année typique

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 1. Cumulative rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly for April 1 to May 30, 2014, compared to the 2008-2012 average

    Figure 2

    Figure 1. Cumulative rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly for April 1 to May 30, 2014, compared to the 2008-2012 average

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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