Conditions for the start of the 2014/2015 agricultural season are generally good

• Agro-climatic conditions since the start of the 2014/15 season have been generally good and remain favorable for crop development. This is supporting the pursuit of normal agricultural activities and labor opportunities for poor households.

• Good food availability from previous harvests and the normal, seasonal evolution of prices are in line with a normal lean season and are facilitating access to food for poor households, despite increased demand in July during the month of Ramadan.

• Early harvests in September will improve food availability for households, who will benefit from the sale of green harvest of groundnuts and maize, from which they will derive substantial income. The continuation of Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity will be maintained through December 2014. This report is currently being translated into English.

According to forecasts by the Regional Climate Outlook Forum for West Africa, June through September rainfall for this year in large parts of the country is expected to be below seasonal averages. However, based on the country’s normally high levels of rainfall, there should be an adequate volume of rainfall for the 2014/2015 growing season. An analysis of dekadal satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) for the period from April 1-July 20 of this year puts rainfall levels across the country at or above the five-year seasonal average (Figure 1). The combined effects of these favorable rainfall conditions and government measures designed to facilitate access to inputs for farmers are helping to promote good crop growth and development, supporting the normal pursuit of income-generating activities, allowing for households to meet their needs and to face normal lean season conditions without any major problems in spite of the expected slight rise in prices during Ramadan.

In terms of the national health situation, Guinea is still feeling the effects of the same Ebola outbreak currently affecting Liberia and Sierra Leone. The Ministry of Health has reported a cumulative total of 415 suspected and confirmed cases of the disease as of July 20, with 314 fatalities. Outbreak areas extend from the country’s borders with Liberia and Sierra Leone (Guéckédou and Macenta prefectures) towards the Malian border, into Kissidougou, Kouroussa, Dabola, Dinguiraye, and Siguiri prefectures. There is also a localized outbreak area close to Conakry in Dubréka, Fria, Boffa, and Télimelé prefectures.

Since the most likely cause of the outbreak is the consumption of bush mean, part of the population is foregoing the hunting and the sale of related products and trying to avoid outbreak areas. Given the importance of hunting as a source of both income and protein, certain households will need to rely more heavily on other available activities. However, this could create shortages of important foods for good nutrition in certain households in non-coastal and non-fishing areas. The most severe impacts for food security will likely be felt by households with one or more members ill or deceased as a result of Ebola. Certain households whose incomes and food consumption have been affected may face livelihood protection deficits. However, it is highly unlikely that this group of households will represent more than 20 percent of the total population with the wide range of other available and ongoing activities in these areas.

Poor households affected by last year’s flooding in Dinguiraye, Kankan, Siguiri, Macenta, Labé, and Tougué will have a more difficult time during the month-long observance of Ramadan in July. The expected growing household demand for cereals is likely to put downward pressure on market supplies, driving up prices or keeping them high. This could make it difficult for many of these households to maintain access to cereals, prompting them to engage in the use of atypical coping strategies such as foregoing certain expenditures on health, education, investments, and ceremonies and cutting social assistance. Thus, in general, the food security outlook for these households during the lean season (July through September) is less positive.

With the lean season getting underway in July, most poor households are currently market-dependent for their food supplies. The good progress of the growing season up until this point, encouraging traders and large farmers to unload their inventories, and the regular flow of rice imports, are providing markets with normal, adequate cereal supplies. The presence of locally-grown crops such as onions, yams, palm oil, eggplants, and dried peppers is also helping to sustain market supplies and ease pressure on demand. In general, this kept prices stable on most reference markets between May and June and July prices were unchanged from figures for July of last year.

The good progress of the growing season, sustaining normal livelihood strategies, relatively stable prices, and regular supplies of locally-grown crops and imported rice will, at a minimum, enable most households to meet their basic food needs and get through the lean season (July-September) without any major problems. Early September harvests of maize and fonio will help strengthen food availability and facilitate the food access of poor households. There will be Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) through the end of December, with normal restocking activities.