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Stable prices keep food insecurity at minimal levels

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Guinea
  • February 2014
Stable prices keep food insecurity at minimal levels

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected outlook through June 2014
  • Key Messages
    • A slightly above-average national grain harvest and widespread harvests of market garden crops are creating generally good food security conditions. Households in most parts of the country are currently able to meet their basic needs without resorting to any negative coping strategies. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels of food insecurity are expected through at least the month of June.
    • Markets are well-stocked and prices for staple foods, such as rice, maize, millet, and fonio, were relatively stable between December and January. At the household-level, grain stocks are also normal. This is attributable to good 2013/14 crop production levels which continue to sufficiently meet demand in consumption areas of the country.

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    There are no anomalies expected to have a major impact on food security at this time or during the remainder of the outlook period.

     


    Projected outlook through June 2014

    The current food security situation is shaped by the end of the harvesting period for coarse grain crops and ongoing widespread harvests of off-season crops. Normal levels of income from crop sales and farm labor are helping agricultural households improve their food access.

    The preliminary food balance sheet shows a national surplus of approximately 567,755 metric tons of locally grown rice. In addition, traders have large carry-over stocks of imported rice from 2012/2013 that they were unable to sell. As a result, projected commercial rice imports for 2014 are expected to be 210,000 metric tons, which compares to 272,487 MT last year. These imports should help ensure regular market supply across the country.

    In general, January prices for local and imported rice were stable compared with previous months, aside from small dips in the price of locally grown rice on certain markets due to the arrival of recently harvested crops. However, the price of locally grown rice in Kankan was 21 percent higher than January 2013’s levels due to stronger demand on that market. In the coming months, good market supplies are expected to keep prices relatively stable through April/May, at which point there could be a slight rise in prices in line with normal seasonal trends as household demand grows on local markets. 

    Income-generating activities, such as cultivating off-season crops and selling agricultural and forest products, are producing normal levels of household income. This in turn is helping to improve staple food access for households. Thus, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels of acute food insecurity are expected through June 2014.

    Figures Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Prices of locally grown rice on major markets tracked by FEWS NET (in FG/kg)

    Figure 2

    Prices of locally grown rice on major markets tracked by FEWS NET (in FG/kg)

    Source: SIPAG GUINEA

    Prices of imported rice on major markets tracked by FEWS NET (in FG/kg)

    Figure 3

    Prices of imported rice on major markets tracked by FEWS NET (in FG/kg)

    Source: SIPAG GUINEA

    Figure 4

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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