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A normal lean season is expected due to staple food price stability and normal income levels

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Guinea
  • April 2014
A normal lean season is expected due to staple food price stability and normal income levels

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected outlook through September 2014
  • Key Messages
    • Preparations for the 2014/2015 growing season are progressing well, which includes land preparation work, farm labor, agricultural extension activities, and use of farm and phytosanitary inputs and equipment. These activities are generating normal levels of income, enabling poor households to meet their basic needs without resorting to negative coping strategies. Thus, households are expected to experience Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) between now and the end of September.
    • There are regular, adequate market supplies from regular flows of imports, good domestic cereal availability from slightly above-average harvests, and ongoing market-gardening activities. This has helped stabilize demand on all markets, which explains price stability and normal seasonal fluctuations in prices across the country in April. This price stability is helping poor households maintain normal food access.

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    There are no anomalies that are expected to have a major impact on food security at this time or during the outlook period. 

     


    Projected outlook through September 2014

    The first regional climate outlook forum for Gulf of Guinea countries held in Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire) from March 10th through March 14th of this year forecast normal to below-normal levels of cumulative rainfall in Guinea between March and June, with possible rainfall deficits in areas close to the coast. Based on the country’s normally high rainfall totals, FEWS NET assumes that there will be adequate rainfall activity for the 2014/2015 growing season. According to satellite-derived estimates of cumulative rainfall for the period from March 10-April 10, 2014, there was average rainfall activity in the country’s forest zone (Figure 1). These rainfall conditions are allowing preparations for the growing season to proceed smoothly, including land preparation work, farm labor, agricultural extension activities, and use of farm and phytosanitary inputs and equipment. These activities are generating normal levels of income enabling poor households to meet their basic needs and maintain their staple food access.

    There was a normal, regular market supply of locally produced foodstuffs such as rice, maize, onions, yams, palm oil, eggplants, dry peppers, and fonio for the month of April. A regular flow of imports, good cereal availability from slightly above-average harvests, and ongoing harvests of market-gardening crops have stabilized household demand on local markets. Thus, in general, there was little movement in cereal prices on most markets tracked by FEWS NET between February and March. This price stability should continue through the end of May, at which point prices could edge slightly upwards in line with normal seasonal trends, when there will be heavier pressure on local markets from household demand with the normal depletion of household food stocks.

    Good seasonal grazing and watering conditions for livestock are enabling pastoral households to generate normal levels of income from sales of animals and animal products. In spite of the continuing price stability, terms-of-trade are still in favor of pastoralists, allowing poor households in agropastoral and pastoral areas to maintain their food access.

    Concerning the health sector, there has been an outbreak of Ebola fever with 157 reported cases to date, including 101 deaths. Health teams are conducting awareness-raising and preventive health campaigns in an effort to keep the disease from spreading. This has prompted certain neighboring countries like Senegal to close their borders, but so far, there are no reports of any anomalies in cross-border trade. The sole exception is the Agricultural Product Information System (SIPAG) report of a slowdown in the flow of domestic trade in forest products, such as bananas, tubers, and palm oil from the forest zone to other parts of the country.  

    A number of very poor and poor households in certain flood-stricken areas of the country such as Dinguiraye, Kankan, Siguiri, and Tougue were unable to replant their crops due to a lack of seeds. They have depleted their food stocks and are market-dependent earlier than usual. However, a stable flow of income and stable market prices are holding the food insecurity of most of these households at Stressed levels (IPC Phase 2).

    In general, poor households in all livelihood zones are able to protect their livelihoods with normal incomes from income-generating activities, such as dry-season farming activities, sales of food crops from forest farming activities, farm labor, and land preparation work and will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through the end of September. However, the depleted food stocks of poor flood-stricken households (representing less than 20 percent of the local population) and their growing market dependence could trigger Stress (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity, inducing reductions in the quantity and quality of household food consumption and reductions in non-food spending.

    Figures Calendrier saisonnier dans une année typique

    Figure 1

    Calendrier saisonnier dans une année typique

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 1. Cumulative seasonal rainfall, 10 March - 10 April 2014l

    Figure 2

    Figure 1. Cumulative seasonal rainfall, 10 March - 10 April 2014l

    Source: USGS

    Figure 3

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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