Food insecurity remains high in conflict zones and has reached worrying levels in Burkina Faso

• Forecasts for the 2022/2023 crop year indicate a regional cereal production of 76.4 million tonnes, up 7 and 6 percent on last year and the average. All Sahelian countries show an increase compared with the two reference periods. However, at the local level, areas affected by armed conflict and insecurity continue to record below-average harvests. Heavy infestations of Jassidia on cotton have led to fears of major production losses in Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Mali. Pasture production is above average, except in the pastoral zones of Niger and in the zones of Gao, Timbuktu, Kidal, Taodéni, and Menaka in Mali, where it is below average. 

• Pasture resources are good in the Sahelian band, in the Lake Chad and Liptako Gourma basins, and in northwestern Nigeria. However, ongoing armed conflict and insecurity will continue to severely restrict herd mobility and access to pasture and water resources in these areas, leading to a high concentration of herds in accessible grazing areas and accelerated resource degradation. Good water availability offers above-average opportunities for dry-season production, except in conflict zones, where its use will remain limited.

• Markets were marked in October by a seasonal downward trend in commodity prices in several countries, driven by the main harvests.  Nevertheless, prices strengthened further in some parts of the Sahel (notably Mali and parts of Burkina Faso and Chad) due to insecurity, the latest floods, and forecasts of localized drops in production. In Ghana, too, prices continued to rise abnormally against a backdrop of macroeconomic slowdown and massive inflation. Overall, prices remained well above the five-year average in the region. In the Sahel, these atypical levels were mainly due to below-average stocks, strong demand for restocking and humanitarian assistance, and persistent insecurity. In coastal countries, prices were driven by strong export demand, a sharp rise in transaction costs, and currency depreciation. Given the low carryover stocks, the need to replenish stocks, and the high levels of world commodity prices, prices will remain above average on the markets.

• The majority of areas are experiencing an improvement in food security to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) thanks to the new harvests, which provide food and income for households. Stressed 2! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes will persist from November to January in the Diffa region and southern Maradi in Niger, the Kanem, Lac and Barh El Gazel regions in Chad, the Sanmatenga province in Burkina Faso, and several LGAs in Borno and Yobe states in Nigeria. Diffa and Maradi in Niger will continue to face Stressed outcomes until May, while the other areas will transition to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and May 2023. During the same period, this level of food insecurity will also affect the Dababa and Mangalmé departments in Chad, and the north and west of the Far North region in Cameroon, which are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist until May 2023 in the provinces of Yagha, Seno, and northern Namentenga in Burkina Faso, the western and northern regions of Tillaberi and Tahoua in Niger, the northwestern and southwestern regions of Cameroon, western and southern Katsina, northern and southern Sokoto, eastern Niger, northern and central Zamfara, northwest, northeast, and southeast Kaduna, northeast and south Yobe, and west and east Borno in Nigeria. These outcomes will extend to several other areas in the above-mentioned states of Nigeria, as well as to the provinces of Yatenga, Bam, Sanmatenga, Komondajari, Gourma, Kompienga, and Tapoa in Burkina Faso. 

• Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are currently underway in the Soum and Oudalan provinces of Burkina Faso and will persist until May. From February onwards, Emergency outcomes will extend to the Yagha province, all of which are affected by armed conflict and insecurity. In these provinces, a small proportion of the population is experiencing extreme food consumption disparities indicating Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), with an increase in the population in this phase between February and May 2023.

Burkina Faso

• Conflict continues to cause severe food insecurity in northern Burkina Faso. In blockaded areas, notably the Soum, Yagha, and Oudalan provinces, current harvests are not sufficient to prevent extreme variations in consumption. Market supplies are not regular, and the delivery of assistance is inadequate. As a result of asset erosion, poor host households and IDPs are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. In the inaccessible communes of Djibo, Kelbo, Arbinda, Tin-Akoff, Déou, and Sebba, FEWS NET predicts that a minimum percentage of very poor and poor households have extreme food deficits and livelihood asset destruction due to market dysfunction, limited mobility, and limited or no ability to engage in typical livelihood activities and are in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Between February and May, forced migration for lack of food is likely to intensify, and cases of severe acute malnutrition are likely to worsen, increasing the proportion of households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). 
• There has been no let-up in the exactions of militant armed groups, as is usually the case during the wettest months. On the contrary, these groups continue to demonstrate their ability to confront the national army by isolating more areas, attacking convoys of goods, and seeking to consolidate control of smuggling routes in the south. Persisting sociopolitical crises, marked by two coups d'état in eight months, are not likely to improve the situation. The frequency and intensity of attacks by militant groups is expected to continue to increase after the end of the rainy season, reaching levels similar to or higher than last year. 
•  Despite the country's good rainfall, current harvests are set to be below average, due to a reduction in cultivated areas in conflict zones and lower yields resulting from the under-use of mineral fertilizers. The drop in production will lead to a lower-than-average supply of food products, particularly cereals. Household market demand, particularly from IDPs, will increase over the projection period. Moreover, institutional and private stocks are currently at their lowest level compared with the average. It is likely that their purchase requirements will be higher than usual, either to replenish stocks, or to meet humanitarian needs for the benefit of IDPs. With the lingering effects of the crisis in Ukraine, staple food prices, including imported products, will remain above their five-year seasonal averages until May 2023. 
• Overall, and particularly in the areas most affected by insecurity, incomes will be below average between October and May. Insecurity will continue to limit off-season production and gold panning. The expected drop in production will not allow households to take advantage of above-average prices or to make profit margins due to high production costs. Similarly, the increase in the purchase price from cotton producers will not be enough to offset the drop in production negatively impacted by crop disease.

For more information, see the Burkina Faso Food Security Outlook from October 2022 to May 2023.

Cameroon

• Inflationary pressures on food products have intensified in Cameroon since the start of the war in Ukraine. According to the National Institute of Statistics, Cameroon saw a general inflation rate of 6.61 percent in August 2022, above the CEMAC (Central African Economic and Monetary Community) zone inflation threshold of 3 percent. Compared with the same month in 2021, general inflation in August 2022 rose by 7.4 percent in Yaoundé and 6.6 percent in Douala, driven by a 14.5 to 14.9 percent increase in food prices, notably oils and fats, bread and cereals, and meats. Over the same period, prices of locally produced food products in these cities also rose from 13.3 to 14.4 percent. 
• FEWS NET's routine monitoring has reported Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and even worse outcomes among mainly market-dependent urban poor households, particularly those in Yaoundé and Douala. Although still recovering from pandemic-related income declines, they are now reducing the number of meals they eat, depleting previous savings, or going into debt to survive high food prices. 
• In the North-West and South-West regions, generalized Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected at the area level from November 2022 to May 2023, as increased market dependence and rising staple food prices exacerbate already weak household purchasing power. More and more poor households will see their food consumption deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3), exacerbating the lean season experience from March to May 2023.
•  Access to own-produced sorghum, maize, and pulses increases food availability and diversity and boosts income from crop sales for poor households in the Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava, and Mayo-Tsanaga divisions of the Far North region, improving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in October. Above-average prices and low incomes continue to limit the purchasing power of poor households for other foods, such as rice and wheat products, and essential non-food items, forcing them to continue using stressed coping strategies.

For more information, see the report Prospects for food security in Cameroon from October 2022 to May 2023 .

Mali

• Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes will continue until May 2023 for the majority of households in the country, thanks to generally average harvests and seasonal price declines. However, the advanced deterioration in household livelihoods in the insecure zones in the center and north and the high level of cereal prices will continue to reduce households' ability to access food, particularly in the Ménaka and Gao zones, where security incidents and population displacements have increased. Thus, due to the early exhaustion of stocks and rising prices, the current Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from April to May 2023 in the Liptako Gourma zone, while the current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will continue in the Ménaka and southern Gao zones.
• In the Liptako Gourma area, persistent and even intensifying insecurity on the border with Burkina Faso and Niger is disrupting economic activities and humanitarian access in the zone and generating an unusual displacement of populations, estimated at 440,436 people at the end of September 2022. The upward trend in violent attacks will further degrade the already precarious livelihoods of households in the areas concerned, reducing their ability to meet their food and non-food needs from October to May 2023.
• Thanks to good rainfall, average cereal availability is expected in the country, with harvesting beginning in October. Cereal production forecasts are slightly up (+16.7%) on last year and virtually the same (+4.8%) as the five-year average (CPS/SDR). Localized drops in production due to flooding or insecurity will reduce food supplies in the areas concerned, particularly the insecure central and northern areas, where access to certain markets is disrupted.
• Normal to surplus rains have replenished pastures and watering holes, resulting in average to good livestock production and providing pastoral households with milk, butter, cheese and income. These conditions augur well for a normal lean season for pastoralists from April onwards. However, difficulties in accessing certain pastures and markets due to insecurity will affect livestock feed in insecure areas in the center and north of the country, which will have a negative impact on pastoral income.
• Household access to cereals is average on the whole, thanks to the average availability of own production and lower prices. However, household incomes have declined, particularly in conflict zones, and cereal prices are high compared with the five-year average, reducing the goat-to-millet terms of trade. These factors will continue to negatively affect poor people's access to food from April to May 2023.

For more information, see the Outlook for Food Security in Mali from October 2022 to May 2023.

Niger

• The security crisis persists, with kidnappings for ransom, the levying of taxes on animals, and the use of improvised explosive devices. These terrorist acts are adversely affecting household food security by disrupting livelihood activities and market operations in the affected areas of the Tillabéry and Diffa regions and the North-West and South-West of the Tahoua and Maradi regions. 
• Cereal and cash crop harvests are underway, with provisional results estimated to be higher than last year and the five-year average due to good rainfall during the season and a generally stable plant health situation. As a result, food supplies and incomes will be further boosted by the contribution of irrigated crops from January to May 2023. However, according to the Direction des Statistiques de l'Agriculture, 15 percent of farming villages throughout the country will experience a drop in agricultural production due to flooding, dry spells, and a reduction in sown area as a result of insecurity and limited access to inputs, including fertilizer. 
• Markets have returned to normal seasonal supply trends, ensuring the availability of cereals at a household level and on the markets. However, prices remain generally above the five-year average, with more significant rises in markets located in conflict zones in the Diffa, Tillabéry, and Tahoua regions. 
• Food assistance operations were conducted by the government and its partners in June, July, and August 2022 and covered 80 to 100 percent of the food needs of the majority of targeted people in the Diffa and Maradi regions, according to the September 2022 Food Security Custer assistance implementation monitoring report. However, in the regions of Tillabéry and Tahoua, less than 20 percent of targeted people received assistance due to the security situation, which limits access to populations in need. 
• Poor displaced households in the Tillabéry and Tahoua regions remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to low production linked to reduced access to crop fields, falling incomes, and high food prices, which reduce food access. In addition, insecurity is rendering food assistance distributions inaccessible to households. However, food assistance is provided on a regular basis in the Diffa and Maradi regions, covering the food needs of poor and displaced households and enabling them to remain in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!).

To find out more, see Niger's Food Security Outlook from October 2022 to May 2023.

Nigeria

• With the availability of harvests, access to food has improved for many households across the country; however, nationwide, food aid needs remain atypically high for this time of year due to the cumulative effects of poor macroeconomic conditions, high levels of conflict, and the worst flooding in a decade. Over 4.5 million people are displaced across the country, with livelihood activities disrupted. Many households, including those displaced and in conflict-affected areas, are still facing consumption deficits due to limited crop availability and lower-than-normal purchasing power.
• Conflict in the northeast continues, albeit at relatively lower levels than in previous years, with localized incidences in the LGAs of Abadam, Gubio, Guzamala, Bama, Konduga, Kaga, and Damboa in Borno State, disrupting livelihoods and commercial activities. The floods of 2022 have reduced prospects for the main season harvest; however, the current harvest is expected to increase access to food. Overall, during the harvest period, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to be widespread. Despite dry-season harvests in early 2023, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will most likely generalize during the February to May 2023 period, as own food stocks from production decline and households become more market-dependent. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely only among certain households with little or no harvest, limited ability to access markets due to minimal incomes, and relying mainly on wild foods.
• Kidnapping, banditry, and cattle rustling continue to intensify in northwestern and north-central states. The states of Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, Sokoto, Niger, and Benue remain the worst affected, with widespread displacement. Flooding has also caused displacement and damage to farmland. Many displaced and poor households have a minimal main season harvest and depend mainly on food markets. However, abnormally high prices for staple foods are making access to food increasingly difficult. Some poor households depend on wild foods to meet their basic food needs. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely in many of these areas until early 2023. Consequently, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected until at least May 2023 in the most conflict-affected areas of northwestern and north-central states, as households will be unable to meet their food needs.
• The 2022 main harvest is underway across the country. Conflict and flood-related disruptions and lower-than-normal access to agricultural inputs have affected planting times, crop growth, and harvesting. As a result, production is likely to be below the national average. While staple food prices have eased somewhat, price levels remain atypically high due to inflationary market pressures, including high transportation costs. In October, annual inflation was 21.09 percent. 

To find out more, see Nigeria's Food Security Outlook from October 2022 to May 2023.

Chad

• Insecurity at Le Lac, the expected drop in production due to flooding, and atypically above-average prices continue to disrupt the typical sources of food and income for poor households in the country. Despite ongoing harvests, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity will be widespread in most Saharan and Sahelian areas. In Le Lac, ongoing food assistance is enabling households to have adequate consumption, but they are unable to meet certain non-food expenses and are facing Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. 
• Average to above-normal rainfall totals led to the displacement of populations, the destruction of infrastructure, and the loss of crops and livestock. By mid-October 2023, more than 1,000,000 people had been affected, 465,030 hectares of fields destroyed, and almost 19,400 head of livestock lost to flooding. Among the 18 provinces, Mayo Kebbi Est, Logone Occidental, Tandjilé, Mandoul, and the city of N'Djaména have been severely affected. 
• Conflict and insecurity are disrupting the typical sources of income and food for households in agropastoral areas and on the Lake. An upsurge in conflicts between farmers and herders over access to and control of agropastoral areas and resources was observed in many parts of the country. In the Lac region, persistent civil insecurity continues to disrupt the livelihoods of displaced people and host households.
• Current cereal harvests are showing stable production, with a slight upward trend (1.7%) due to area losses caused by flooding and reduced access to fields because of poor roads and high transport costs. Disruptions to the flow of imported food products are limiting supply volumes to the Sahelian zone from Libya, increasing pressure on local grain markets to generate supplies. As a result, atypical cereal price rises of between 15 and 40 percent compared with the five-year average are being reported on most markets.

For more information, see the Chad Food Security Outlook from October 2022 to May 2023.

Countries monitored remotely^[1]

Mauritania 

• Despite the availability of the first harvests, some poor households are turning to the markets to meet their food needs, in a context of high price inflation. As a result, overall Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes persist in the country. These populations are mainly located in the northern and western communes of the city of Nouakchott and in the agropastoral zone. In the projected period, the lack of seasonal employment opportunities in urban and mining areas will limit poor households' access to food. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are the most likely overall food insecurity outcomes.
• Crop development for the first dry cereal harvests, notably millet and sorghum, is satisfactory thanks to adequate rainfall in the southern part of the Guidimakha region and the Senegal River strip. In the case of off-season crops, the optimal level of water in the reservoirs will enable normal crop production. 
• Favorable rainfall led to a satisfactory improvement in pastoral conditions, with livestock becoming fatter. This in turn boosted livestock production, particularly of milk, meat, and by-products. In addition, favorable pastoral conditions have had a positive impact on livestock prices. However, despite this situation, the terms of trade continue to be unfavorable to livestock farmers due to high food prices. 
• Cereal supply is marked by the first harvests from production zones in the south of the country. This supply, although very limited at the moment, is supported by flows from neighboring countries, notably Senegal. However, this supply remains globally reduced by restrictions on cereal imports from Mali, limiting food availability at this time. Despite the early harvest, food prices are on an upward trend, almost doubling the five-year average for cereals in some markets, with the exception of imported rice, which remains stable. Transportation costs, coupled with national inflation (7.2% in September), are further contributing to the rise in market prices.

To find out more, see the October 2022 to May 2023 Mauritania remote monitoring update report.

Central African Republic

• Due to flooding in the far north and rising food prices in landlocked areas in the east of the country, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist, with poor host households and poor IDPs having insufficient harvests and low sources of income. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the calmer southwest and central areas, where harvests are normal.
• Conflict and insecurity remain a key factor in acute food insecurity due to the long-term erosion of agricultural and economic productivity. However, conflict levels have decreased compared to last year, allowing for a relative improvement in typical livelihood activities. In addition, favorable rainfall in most parts of the country has led to average to above-average harvests for the majority of households, with the exception of those in flood-affected areas, areas where armed groups are active, or areas where there is a high presence of IDPs.
• Despite some positive trends, livelihood recovery remains limited. The deterioration of the road network, insecurity, and high fuel prices are all contributing to poor market supplies and rising food prices in landlocked areas. In addition, localized flooding has caused crop losses in the Vakaga and Ouham prefectures. The need for food assistance is expected to increase from February to May 2023, as poor households exhaust their food stocks and food prices begin to rise seasonally, especially in areas most affected by flooding and insecurity.

To find out more, see the October 2021 to May 2022 update on remote monitoring of the Central African Republic.