Food insecurity remains high in conflict zones and market tensions loom

• Forecasts for the 2021/2022 crop year indicate a 3 percent drop in regional cereal production compared with last year but a slight 2 percent increase compared to the five-year average. Year-on-year declines are expected to be more pronounced in Sahelian countries, notably Niger (36 percent), Mauritania (18 percent), Burkina Faso (10 percent), Mali (6 percent), and Chad (6 percent). Average to below-average seasonal totals, coupled with very long dry spells, were detrimental to fruiting/maturing of crops, which in some places suffered from pest attacks. Flooding in August also jeopardized late planting in several Sahelian zones, notably in northeastern Nigeria. Finally, in insecure areas, inaccessibility to fields and crop destruction were limiting factors.

• Persistent insecurity and armed conflict continue to lead to massive population movements in the region. As of October 31, 2021, 2,136,818 displaced people were registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma, 67 percent of them in Burkina Faso, and 5,417,841 displaced people in the Lake Chad basin, 76 percent of them in Nigeria (IOM, October 2021). Livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance movements, and access to basic social services are severely disrupted for most of these displaced people. 

• On the pastoral front, generally satisfactory biomass production and watering conditions have enabled livestock to regain a relatively average level of body condition. However, pastoral households face limited access to pastures, livestock looting, rising cereal prices with unfavorable terms of trade, high livestock feed prices, and the closure of livestock markets in several localities due to civil insecurity.

• Market supplies are gradually increasing in this harvest period but are still below average in much of the region due to low levels of destocking. Although seasonally down, demand remained above average due to increased restocking by traders, industries, and even households anticipating high prices during the consumption year. Market operations and access remain hampered by continuing insecurity and conflict in the Great Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, northern Nigeria, the Tibesti region of Chad, and the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon. Staple food prices are stable or down on the previous month but remain above the five-year average, particularly in Nigeria. Prices are likely to be above average throughout the marketing year, due to greater pressure from restocking demand, expected production cuts in the region, and higher international import costs. 

• The majority of areas will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until May 2022, with some households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, including many poor urban households struggling to recover typical income levels, with low purchasing power exacerbated by commodity price inflation. In areas affected by civil insecurity, such as the northern part of the Centre-Nord region, the provinces of Séno, Komondjari, and Yatenga in Burkina Faso, the Diffa region, the Tillabéry region, and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes will persist until May 2022 thanks to food assistance in Niger, while in Burkina Faso most of these areas will transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in November due to new harvests. However, in Burkina Faso, the situation will continue to deteriorate in the Loroum, Soum, Oudalan, and Yagha provinces, reaching Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to persistent insecurity and insufficient harvests. 

• Due to persistent conflict, current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist until May 2022 in the north of the Tillabéry region and the east of the Tahoua region in Niger, the Lake region in Chad, the North-West and North-East of Nigeria, part of the North-West and South-West of Cameroon, and Central Africa. In the east of Mopti in Mali and the far north of Cameroon, also affected by conflict and low production, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) prevailed in September but improved slightly in November with the new harvests, enabling households to move to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In Nigeria, the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes currently underway in the areas most affected by the conflict in Borno State will persist until May 2022. In this country, food security conditions remain worrying for IDPs in both the northeast and the northwest, where access to food and income is very limited and humanitarian access has decreased. In Burkina Faso, particularly in the hard-to-reach communes of the Oudalan province, where the deterioration in livelihoods is most marked, poor IDPs and host households have significant food consumption gaps and will face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes until May 2022. 

Burkina Faso

• With the loss of their usual sources of food and income, poor households in the north of the country are unable to meet their basic food needs. In the hard-to-reach communes of the Oudalan province, where asset erosion is most acute, IDPs are experiencing significant consumption gaps and will face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes between October 2021 and May 2022. 
• In the North, Centre-North, and Sahel regions, insecurity, high input costs, and below-normal water reservoir levels could limit market gardening activities and income from this source between January and May. The pastoral lean season will begin early and last longer in these areas from February onwards, leading to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity throughout the projection period.
• The security situation continues to deteriorate in the north and east, leading to an increase in population displacements, loss of livestock, and disruption of agropastoral and commercial activities. Attacks have also increased in frequency and intensity in the southwestern regions of the country, where militant groups are attempting to extend their control over the Burkinabe-Ivorian border and associated smuggling routes. 
• As a result of the cumulative anomalies of reduced area sown due to insecurity and lower yields due to flooding, predators, and longer dry sequences during the critical crop period, expected crop production could overall be below average, with significant declines in areas affected by insecurity. Grain demand is likely to outstrip supply, and prices are likely to remain above their seasonal averages between October 2021 and May 2022.

To find out more, see the Burkina Faso Food Security Outlook from October 2021 to May 2022.

Cameroon

• Dry harvests in October in the Far North region are improving food security for poor households, particularly in Mayo Tsanaga, Mayo Sava, and Logone-et-Chari, localities affected by the insurgency. Poor households have access to sorghum, millet, and maize, and income from the sale of crops improves their access to other food products purchased on the markets. However, agricultural production has been below average, as has been the case for several years, resulting in lower stocks and income from crop sales. As a result, these poor households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes until May 2022. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes could emerge in March 2022 in Logone-et-Chari and Mayo Sava, where production has been well below average.
• Food security is deteriorating for most poor households in the North-West and South-West, as they have used up their below-average initial stocks earlier than usual. Humanitarian aid is reaching some households, but in relatively small quantities compared with needs. Poor households are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until May 2022 in Momo, Lebialem, Meme, and Menchum departments, where production has been relatively low compared to other departments and food assistance limited due to inaccessibility. However, due to a slight localized improvement in production compared to last season in the rest of the departments, household stocks should continue to support adequate food consumption and minimally adequate incomes until January 2022, keeping them in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), after which households will move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the peak of the lean season in May 2022.

To find out more, see the Prospects for food security in Cameroon from October 2021 to May 2022 report.

Mali

• Current harvests, although below last year's levels and the five-year average, are conducive to sufficient food availability in the country during the 2021/2022 food year. The availability of the country's own production and average to slightly above-average cereal prices mean that the majority of households will be able to access food with little difficulty and will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.
• Poor households in the western Sahel and parts of the center of the country will experience an early lean season, leading to a deterioration to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity from May 2022 onwards due to a significant drop in their agricultural production.
• Average to good livestock breeding conditions across the country point to a normal pastoral lean season for livestock from April onwards, except in the western Sahel and in parts of the northern regions, where it will be premature due to the rapid deterioration in breeding conditions linked to grazing deficits and overgrazing, particularly in insecure areas where access to pastoral resources remains limited.
• Current Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity in Liptako Gourma will degrade to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May 2022 in the absence of humanitarian assistance. Poor households displaced in insecure areas, those who have returned and are encountering difficulties in integrating into the socioeconomic environment, and those who faced flooding during the rainy season face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes that will continue until May in the absence of food assistance. However, these groups represent less than the 20 percent population threshold required to change the phase classification of the whole area.

To find out more, see Mali's Food Security Outlook from October 2021 to May 2022.

Niger

• Due to the late onset and early cessation of rains, dry sequences, and security shocks, production of cereals, cash crops, and pastures is expected to be below average. This will result in an early depletion of cereal stocks in December/January, and limited availability of forage due to inaccessibility in conflict zones and losses due to bush fires. 
• Despite harvests in progress, supplies are still below normal, and product prices are above average due to lower flows and high transaction costs. This situation is likely to persist, due to low domestic cereal supplies and persistent disruption of flows following announced cuts in agricultural production in source countries.
• The hotbeds of conflict and insecurity remained active even during the rainy season, which is usually a period of calm due to natural obstacles. Conflict and insecurity are spreading to new areas along the border with Burkina Faso. With the end of the rainy season, security incidents and casualties asre expected to increase, leading to further displacement of people.
• Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity is expected in most of the country, with cereal and cash crop harvests boosting purchasing power, except in the northern Tillabéry region and northern Tahoua, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will prevail due to lack of clean food supplies and access to food assistance. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will prevail in the country from February to May 2022, due to the depletion of cereal stocks and rising prices for consumer goods. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected in the Diffa and Maradi regions thanks to food assistance, while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in the Tillabéry and Tahoua zones during the same period.

To find out more, see Niger's Food Security Outlook from October 2021 to May 2022.

Nigeria

• Conflict, poor macroeconomic conditions, and a below-average main season harvest are likely to result in high assistance needs in 2022. Conflict in the north of the country continues to limit household movements to earn income and access fields for current harvests. While conflict has subsided in recent months in the northeast, the most affected poor households continue to face consumption shortfalls due to limited market access and eroded coping capacity. In the northwest, where high levels of conflict persist and market restrictions are in place, poor households are finding it increasingly difficult to meet their food needs. In the rest of the country, harvests are improving food security, but high food and non-food prices are expected to lead to a decline in food access in early 2022, as household food stocks dwindle.
• In the northeast, harvests are helping to improve food security and are expected to be better than last year, but still below pre-crisis levels, as conflict and insecurity continue to disrupt full engagement in agricultural activities. Food prices remain high in the northeast, and income opportunities continue to be periodically disrupted by insecurity. Many poor households are facing mild to moderate food consumption deficits or are engaging in negative coping strategies to meet their food needs; they face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes exist in the LGAs of Abadam, Kukawa, and Guzamala, where affected households remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors and face considerable difficulties accessing food.
• Kidnappings and banditry in the northwestern and north-central states continue to intensify, leading the government to shut down telecommunications services in Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, and Niger states as part of a military response. The ongoing conflict between the government and armed groups has led to displacement, disrupted market functioning, and limited access to labor opportunities and markets. The most affected areas are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the projection period, with some households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).
• Macroeconomic conditions improved slightly as international oil prices and demand rose, contributing to an increase in foreign exchange reserves. Despite this, the value of the naira continues to depreciate due to strong demand for foreign currency. Currency depreciation and above-average local fuel costs have contributed to high transportation costs. These high transportation costs, below-average agricultural production, and higher food import costs have all put upward pressure on staple food prices. The retail price of maize and millet is expected to remain 30 to 50 percent above the five-year average in early to mid-2022, straining the ability of poor households to purchase food once household food stocks are depleted.

To find out more, see the Nigeria Food Security Outlook report from October 2021 to May 2022.

Chad

• Lower-than-average harvestable areas were reported in BEG, Kanem, Hadjer Lamis, Lac, and Wadi Fira. Reductions were also reported in Tandjilé Est, and Mayo Kebbi Ouest (Gagal, Léré) due to flooding and the early cessation of rains in Logone Occidental (Bourou, Bénoye, Saar Goyen). In the Sahelian zone, pastoral conditions are below average.
• Despite demonstrations by the Wakit Tama coalition demanding political guarantees and the organization of a more consensual dialogue, the security situation remains relatively calm due to broad support for the ongoing process.
• Despite anticipated low production in many areas, cereal market prices are on a par with the five-year average, thanks to household availability. On the other hand, insecurity at the Lake, accentuated by lower production levels, is causing millet and maize prices to rise in Bol and Ngouri. In addition, an upward trend in groundnuts, cowpeas, and sesame prices has been observed in most markets due to strong demand for exports to Nigeria, Sudan, and China.
• Given the disruption to household livelihoods and the overall drop in production, displaced people and host households on the Lake are facing consumption deficits; they face Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes due to ongoing food assistance. As a result of low flows with Libya and low rainfed production (dry sequences), households in BEG, Kanem, Hadjer Lamis, and Wadi Fira have reduced their food consumption to a minimum adequacy; they are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Households in agropastoral localities, particularly those in the Sudanian zone, are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes due to stocks that are currently being replenished.

For more information, see the Chad Food Security Outlook from October 2021 to May 2022.

Countries monitored remotely^[1]

Mauritania 

• The delayed sowing of seasonal crops resulting from the late start of the winter season and the impact of long dry spells is having a significant impact on agropastoral production and income prospects for poor households, particularly in the agropastoral (MR07) and crop-growing (MR09) zones (see Figure 1).
• Highly dependent on rainfall, the pastoral situation has been severely affected by rainfall deficits and long dry spells. Indeed, all livelihood zones in the north and northwest are experiencing moderate to severe rainfall deficits compared with normal, and this has adversely affected pasture development. According to the Groupe Technique Spécialisé (GTS) in September 2021, 78 percent of monitored weather stations are in deficit compared with last year, and 53 percent are in deficit compared with normal (1991–2020).
• Livestock farmers and poor households face a long and harsh agropastoral lean season (April–October) due to crop yields below the average for a normal year, falling incomes linked to the sluggish economy, and below-average prospects for dry-season production.

To find out more, see the October 2021 to May 2022 Mauritania remote monitoring update report.

Central African Republic

• The country's security situation remains very fragile, with deterioration in some areas in September. Insecurity has continued to disrupt the implementation of livelihood activities by rural populations in areas hard hit by conflict. As of September 30, the total number of IDPs in CAR was estimated at 722,101, compared with 712,945 in August (CMP, September 2021).
• At a national level, current agricultural production is judged to be average, with below-average levels in northern prefectures due to seed shortages. The same applies to prefectures in the northwest and southeast due to the presence of armed groups and limited access to farmland, seeds, tools, and other agricultural inputs.
• During this harvest period (cassava, maize, beans, etc.), food availability is improving at household level and in local markets and is bolstered by products from gathering, fishing, and hunting. Prices of local products are down or stable compared with the previous month, while those of imported products remain high, mainly due to high transportation costs and road congestion along the Doual–Bangui corridor.
• The closure of some local markets due to conflict and insecurity, coupled with restrictions on trade corridors, is severely affecting the availability and accessibility of basic foodstuffs. As a result, prices of imported products are high, and the median price of the minimum survival basket has risen by 20 percent.
• The new harvests are improving food conditions for the majority of households, which are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, IDPs and poor host households will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from October to May 2022. In particular, poor households in southeastern prefectures and displaced households in northwestern prefectures will be hardest hit between February and May 2022, as early depletion of stocks and low income levels will lead to food consumption deficits.

To find out more, see the October 2021 to May 2022 update on remote monitoring of the Central African Republic.