High demand for institutional stock replenishment could keep Sahel prices high

• The Regional Mechanism for the Prevention and Management of Food Crises (PREGEC) in the Sahel and West Africa estimated in September 2020 that harvests for the 2020/21 crop year will be above average by 4 to 10 percent for cereals and tubers and around 10 percent for oilseeds. These forecasts will be updated at the next PREGEC meeting on November 26. However, below-average harvests are expected locally in the insecure/conflict zones of Liptako-Gourma, the Lake Chad Basin, northwestern and north-central Nigeria, and northwestern and southwestern Cameroon, due to limited access to fields and reduced planted areas. In Nigeria, these declines are further accentuated by the impact of COVID-19 on access to agricultural inputs and labor, and crop flooding. 

• Dry-season farming activities are underway and could lead to above-average production due to the good availability of irrigation water and the intensification of this activity by households. Insecurity, conflict, and banditry in the Lake Chad Basin, Liptako-Gouma, Far North Cameroon, northwestern Nigeria, and the Tibesti region are limiting access to resources for dry-season production and grazing and disrupting market operations and access. 

• Market availability is increasing due to the release of stocks and new harvests underway throughout the region. Prices are experiencing their seasonal decline but remain close to average, with higher levels in areas affected by insecurity, below-average production levels, and border restrictions. With average production performance expected in the eastern basin and strong institutional demand expected to replenish stocks following unforeseen distributions, prices are likely to remain above average in the Sahel, particularly in areas of deficits and/or insecurity, and for local and imported rice in non-XOF coastal countries, notably Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Nigeria, due to the depreciation of national currencies and inflation. The same applies to imported rice in Cameroon, due to a shortage of stocks and high prices on the international market. A continuation of the current sociopolitical crises could disrupt flows between Côte d'Ivoire and the Sahel countries and between Morocco and Mauritania. 

• The majority of areas will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until January 2021, although some households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), including many urban households hard hit by the COVID-19 restrictive measures due to the reduction in the implementation of usual means of subsistence, leading to a drop in income and purchasing power. In areas affected by civil insecurity, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2 !) outcomes will persist until January 2021, given planned food assistance. These areas include the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, the Loroum, Soum, and Sanmatenga provinces in Burkina Faso, and the Lake region of Chad. From February 2021 onwards, difficulties in accessing grazing land will result from the seasonal deterioration in pastoral conditions, and mobility difficulties in insecure areas will reduce the purchasing power of poor households given high food prices and falling livestock prices following the deterioration in animal body conditions.

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist until May 2021 among certain displaced households in Burkina Faso in the provinces of Bam, Namentenga, Séno, Oudalan, Yagha, Gnagna, and Komondjari, in the north, northwest, and southeast of the Central African Republic, in the Lake Chad area, the Tillabéry region, and the north of Tahoua in Niger, in northwest and northeast Nigeria, and in northwest and southwest Cameroon, due to the effects of conflict and flooding on livelihoods. In Nigeria, IDPs in camps located in inaccessible areas near the Lake Chad basin are said to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with very limited access to food and income.

Cameroon

• Despite the recent upsurge in Boko Haram attacks and excessive rainfall that has caused flooding in some areas of the Far North, new harvests are improving food security for many poor households currently living off their own crops. The rainfed cereal harvest for the main 2020 agricultural season is estimated to be average due to favorable weather conditions, although slightly below-average production is expected in the departments of Logone et Chari, Mayo Sava, and Mayo Tsanaga, where Boko Haram is most active, as well as in localities where crops were lost due to flooding.
• Current price trends in the Far North's main markets are stabilizing or declining. Since July 2020, food prices have risen above usual levels, with sorghum and maize selling for 46 to 60 percent and 30 to 47 percent higher, respectively, than in July 2019. Although current prices are still above average, sorghum and groundnuts are down 17 percent and 18 percent compared to the previous three months.
• In the North-West and South-West regions, where agricultural production has been below average for four consecutive years due to ongoing sociopolitical conflicts, this year's harvests are running out earlier than normal. Due to below-average harvests in July 2020, poor households in the most conflict-affected regions are already experiencing near-total stock depletion, placing them in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security situation faster than usual. Agricultural incomes remain below average, despite sales of cereals and cash crops (coffee and cocoa).

For more information, please consult the Food Security Outlook for Cameroon from October 2020 to May 2021.

Chad

• The good rainfall recorded during the season, with accumulated surpluses, favored a good progress of the 2020/2021 agropastoral campaign. Despite a succession of dry spells and flooding in some areas, production is expected to be average to slightly higher. Households in most agricultural and agropastoral zones would not be food insecure (IPC Phase 1) thanks to the good harvests underway.
• In the Sahel, cereal markets continue to show higher prices than the five-year average, due to heavy flooding and high transport costs as a result of COVID-19-related measures. Food access for poor households remains limited by higher-than-average millet prices in Abéché (+15 percent), Biltine (+9 percent), and Moussoro (+14 percent).
•  Curfews and traffic restrictions, among other measures to curb COVID-19, continue to affect the country's economic activity. This has had a significant impact on very poor and poor households, as employment opportunities are more limited. Poor households in Barh-El-Gazal and Kanem can cover their consumption needs, as in a normal year, but are unable to engage in non-food expenditure. They are under Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
• Displaced people and host households in the Lac region continue to depend on assistance, rainfed harvests and harvested products. They can cover their consumption needs but cannot commit to essential non-food expenditures. They will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) thanks to assistance. Households in Tibesti are facing deficits due to limited access to food as a result of COVID-19 causing price rises on the markets. They are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

For more information, please consult the Food Security Outlook for Chad from October 2020 to May 2021.

Mali

• The overall average to good harvests in the country, up around 20 percent on the five-year average, are favorable for satisfactory food availability in the country during the 2020-21 food year. The availability of the country's own production, together with cereal prices that are broadly similar to the average, mean that the majority of households are minimally food insecure (IPC Phase 1).
• The country's generally good livestock breeding conditions augur well for a normal pastoral lean season for livestock from April across the country, with the exception of insecure areas where access to pastoral resources will be disrupted. Expected average livestock production and the maintenance of average body fat are favorable to average incomes, which will improve the purchasing power of livestock-raising households.
• Households' access to cereals is average overall, thanks to the average to above-average availability of their own production, albeit low in places, donations/zakat and payments in kind. Grain prices, which will be similar to slightly above average, and the improvement in the terms of trade between goats and grains to similar to above-average levels, will promote adequate market access for livestock-raising households.
• Poor households in Liptako Gourma and other insecure areas, unable to meet their food needs without atypically resorting to coping strategies, will find themselves in Stressed Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 2), requiring assistance from April onwards to avoid further deterioration. The same will be true for poor displaced households and flood victims, who do not reach the population threshold to change the zone classification, who will be Stressed food insecure (IPC Phase 2) at worst from October to May 2021.

For more information, please consult the Food Security Outlook for Mali from October 2020 to May 2021.

Niger

• Food security conditions have improved overall, with harvests becoming more widespread, prices beginning their seasonal decline, and income opportunities multiplying with the sale of crops, cash crops and livestock. Most households are at least acutely food insecure (IPC Phase 1) in October 2020.
• Some agricultural and agropastoral areas are experiencing declines in cereal production and farm incomes due to flooding. The loss of cereal stocks and agricultural and informal sector income has reduced food access for most households in the Niamey rice-growing zone, which will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) between October and January 2021, thanks to aid already planned by the government and partners. Good prospects for irrigated dry-season crops will enable the situation to improve from February 2021 onwards.
• Livelihoods in most pastoral and agricultural areas will function normally between October 2020 and May 2021, thanks to good fodder production enabling good livestock production, with terms of trade favorable to livestock-raising households. However, herders' purchasing power will decline in April-May 2021 as a result of below-average prices following the effects of restrictions on animal mobility and export sales.
• Conflicts in the Lake Chad Basin, Liptako Gourma and North-West Nigeria, as well as civil insecurity, continue to be the main threats to household food security in the worst-affected regions of Diffa, Nord Tillabery, Nord Tahoua and Sud Maradi. Security incidents persist and will continue to do so with the end of the rainy season, which could lead to increased displacement of populations, loss of livelihoods, disruption of markets and reduced access for humanitarian interventions. However, thanks to the humanitarian access provided in the Diffa and Maradi regions, food insecurity will be at Stressed level (IPC Phase 2!), while in Northern Tillabery and Tahoua, the Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) will dominate the household food situation.

For more information, please consult the Food Security Outlook for Niger from October 2020 to May 2021.

Nigeria

• The Boko Haram conflict in the northeast has intensified in recent months, increasing the displaced population. Despite the start of the harvest, many poor and displaced households have access to own foods and are market reliant. High staple food prices and limited access to income are resulting in many households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Poor households in difficult to access areas by humanitarian actors are mainly dependent on wild foods, with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes present in areas of Borno State. Famine (IPC Phase 5) is possible in the event there is a dramatic uptick or shift in conflict that isolates households from typical food and income sources and humanitarian assistance for a prolonged period of time. 
• Households worst-affected by conflict in the northwest are mainly reliant on own harvest and markets for food. However, the harvest is limited in these areas, as conflict disrupted agricultural activities, and flooding led to further crop losses. Income-earning opportunities are below average due to lower demand and increased labor competition in areas where households are displaced. Starting in December, dry season cultivation will occur but is likely to remain constrained by continued conflict. Overall, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely throughout the projection period
• The main harvest is underway across the country, increasing household access to own foods and market supply, somewhat stabilizing market prices. In areas where poor households were able to cultivate and earn income at normal levels, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are present. In flood-affected areas, where households lost crops and are having some difficulty earning normal incomes, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing and expected to persist into 2021. Some worst-affected households in these areas are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as they face large-scale crop losses or remain displaced and away from their typical income and food sources. Many households are expected to recover during the February to May period, as households participate in dry season cultivation and begin to consume sufficient own foods.
• Macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate due to the low international oil prices and demand, driving declines in foreign reserves. The value of the naira remains lower on both the official and parallel markets, although more significantly so on the parallel market. This, coupled with high domestic fuel prices, is driving high transportation costs and putting upward pressure on market prices. The harvest is helping to stabilize prices; however, prices remain significantly above average across much of the country. Staple food prices are expected to increase in the first half of 2021 as market demand increases and supply declines.

For further information, please consult the Food Security Outlook for Niger from October 2020 to May 2021.

Burkina Faso

• Despite the good distribution of rainfall between July and October, agricultural production could be below average in the northern areas most affected by insecurity due to limited access to fields and pockets of drought. However, production will remain similar to average in calmer production areas across the country despite late access to inputs and localized flooding.
• In urban centers, the overall slowdown in economic activity due to the persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to adversely affect job demand and incomes, particularly in the informal sector, tourism, and the hotel trade. The decline in the purchasing power of the poor will limit their access to food.
• In the absence of food assistance, current harvests remain insufficient to avoid Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity between October and May in the Soum, Sanmatenga, and Séno provinces, where IDPs represent at least 20 percent of the population. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will extend to neighboring provinces (Loroum, Oudalan, Bam, and Namentenga) from February 2021 onwards, as stocks run out and livelihoods continue to deteriorate.

For further information, please consult the Remote Monitoring Reports for Burkina Faso from October 2020 to May 2021.

Central African Republic

• Good rainfall and the generally calmer security situation in the central, southern, and southwestern parts of the country have boosted agricultural production to above-average levels. However, flooding, limited access to fields, and a reduction in planted areas due to the late return of IDPs to their areas have resulted in lower harvests in the northern, northwestern, and southeastern prefectures.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will continue to be observed between October and May in the northwest and southeast prefectures due to limited access to fields and movement restrictions imposed by armed groups, which negatively affect their livelihoods. With below-average production, poor households in Bamingui-Bangoran and Vakaga prefectures will be dependent on markets at an early stage and will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes between February and May.

• Despite a downward trend in new cases of COVID-19, we cannot rule out a possible increase in community transmissions in the coming months as populations mobilize during the election period. The pandemic will continue to slow down economic activities, disrupt the country's supplies of imported foodstuffs, and limit migratory flows and remittances.

  For further information, please consult the Remote monitoring reports for the Central African Republic from October 2020 to May 2021.

Mauritania

• Despite setbacks linked to delays in soil preparation at the start of the season and flood damage, the good distribution of rainfall and the good level of water points should favor average agropastoral production and good development of off-season crops. Own-production will be the main source of food for poor households in agropastoral and agricultural areas.
• The COVID-19–related slowdown in economic activities linked to the tourism and handicrafts sectors will continue to adversely affect the incomes of the poor in the informal sector in urban centers, and migration income in particular for the poor who depend on this source in agropastoral and rainfed farming areas. Added to this are asset losses due to Rift Valley fever and flooding. These areas face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes between October 2020 and May 2021.

• Staple food prices are stable or down seasonally, and livestock prices are slightly up compared to last year. This favors the terms of trade for households in pastoral areas. Notwithstanding average or higher forage availability, transhumance to neighboring countries (Senegal and Mali) will be necessary from February onwards to create a balance, at the risk of greater pressure on resources in southern areas if land borders remain closed.

  For more information, please consult the Remote monitoring reports for Mauritania from October 2020 to May 2021.