Food price increases further reduce poor households’ food access, especially in conflict zones

• The rainy season has begun in the bimodal Gulf of Guinea zone, with below-average rainfall recorded in southern Cameroon and southern Nigeria in late February/early March. However, seasonal rainfall forecasts for the Gulf of Guinea, drawn up by regional (AGRHYMET, ACMAD) and national centers, indicate average to deficit rainfall amounts overall in coastal basins for the 2022 major rainy season in Gulf of Guinea countries. For Sahelian countries, NOAA's global forecasts suggest an on-time start to the rainy season, with above-average rainfall likely to lead to localized flooding between August and September in several areas, particularly those located in the basins of major rivers.

• Persistent insecurity and armed conflict continue to lead to massive population movements in the Lake Chad Basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, northwestern and north-central Nigeria, the Tibesti region of Chad, and the northwestern and southwestern regions of Cameroon. As of February 28, 2022, 2,058,769 displaced people are registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma and a further 5,546,965 in the Lake Basin (IOM, February 2022). Typical livelihoods, activities linked to markets and trade, transhumance, and access to basic social services are severely disrupted for these displaced people. In Burkina Faso in particular, incidents and fatalities have more than doubled compared with the three-year average, with armed groups controlling access to several localities. The most severely affected is Djibo, where a significant deterioration in the food situation is certain.

• Staple food prices have continued to rise and remain substantially above the five-year average in virtually all countries in the region, due to the decline in agricultural production, the deteriorating security situation in Sahelian countries, strong export demand, the depreciation of local currencies (outside the franc zone) in coastal countries, and the general reduction in cross-border flows. With high global prices and transportation costs, manufactured and imported consumer goods such as rice, wheat flour, vegetable oil, dairy products, and sugar have increased by 20 percent to 50 percent or more in recent months, depending on the country. This upward trend could be exacerbated by the Ukrainian crisis, given the importance of the Black Sea countries in the international wheat and vegetable oil market, and the Ramadan holiday in early April, which usually leads to an increase in demand and prices.

• The majority of areas will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until September 2022, with some facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In the Diffa and southernmost Maradi regions of Niger, affected by civil unrest, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2 !) outcomes will persist until September 2022 due to food assistance. Due to persistent insecurity and armed conflict and insufficient winter harvests in 2021, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist until September in the Lorum, Yatenga, Soum, Seno, Yagha, Komondjari, Bam and Sanmatenga provines in Burkina Faso, the Lac region in Chad, the Ménaka region, the east of the Mopti region, the south of the Gao and Timbuktu regions in Mali, the north and west Tillaberi region and the west Tahoua region in Niger, and northwest and northeast Nigeria. In Burkina Faso, Chad, and Nigeria, Crisis outcomes will extend to other areas from June onward.

• The current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes driven by ongoing conflict will persist until September 2022 in the far north, northwest, and southwest of Cameroon and in the Central African Republic. However, in the north of Cameroon's South-West and North-West regions, the food situation will improve slightly from September onwards due to new harvests, enabling households to transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In Oudalan and northern Soum in Burkina Faso, and northern and western Borno in Nigeria, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, which are ongoing due to armed conflict, will persist until September 2022 throughout Soum province and other LGAs in Borno. In these areas, food security conditions remain worrying for both IDPs and poor host households, as access to food and income remains very limited, humanitarian access is limited, and households are forced to resort to severe coping strategies.

Burkina Faso

• Humanitarian assistance needs in Burkina Faso and the rest of West Africa are expected to be atypically high from June to September, the peak of the lean season. Insecurity, early depletion of self-produced stocks, atypical increases in staple food prices, and falling incomes will lead to a deterioration in food access for poor households in general and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in particular. Between February and September 2022, IDPs in inaccessible areas of the far north will face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes, while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will be widespread in the north of the country. 
• Against a backdrop of falling domestic production, rising prices for imported products, and reduced external inflows of cereals, the deteriorating security situation is likely to lead to disruptions in supplies to local markets in the north. With increasing pressure from demand, prices will continue to move atypically above their monthly seasonal averages between February and September, a trend observed in most of the region.
• Insecurity and the early drying up of water reservoirs are limiting off-season activities in production areas, as well as access to pastoral resources, particularly in the northern half of the country. The reduction in the area sown and the number of production cycles will lead to a drop in production and income from this source. Although the rainy season is likely to arrive on time in the country, insecurity, population displacement, and the rising cost of agricultural inputs and equipment could have a negative impact on future agricultural production.

For more information, see the Burkina Faso Food Security Outlook from February to September 2022.

Cameroon

• Over the past three months, staple food prices have risen steadily in most markets in the country, significantly compared with the same period in 2021. Rice and wheat prices have risen by 10 to 15% percent, vegetable oil by 15 percent, and locally produced palm oil by 15 percent. These recent price increases follow a year of continuous price rises. For example, in Yaoundé and Douala, imported and processed food prices were 8.2 and 4.1 percent higher, respectively, in 2021 than in 2020, according to the Institut National de la Statistique (INS). The price increases are mainly due to high shipping costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and disruptions linked to internal conflicts. These trends are also being observed throughout the West African region.
• In the North-West and South-West regions, poor households are unable to buy enough food to meet their basic needs amid high staple prices and low incomes. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to last until June, the peak of the lean season. From July onwards, most poor households will start consuming and selling their own crops, and the improvement towards Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will probably continue until September. Exceptions to this include the relatively more precarious and inaccessible departments of Momo, Lebialem, Meme, Menchum, and Ndian, where low agricultural production is anticipated, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist until September 2022.
• The insurgency-affected population of the Logone et Chari, Mayo Sava and Mayo Tsanaga departments in the Far North is facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes despite ongoing out-of-season harvests. Poor households in these areas rely heavily on markets to buy food, and despite recent government restrictions on cereal exports, cereal prices are high and expected to rise. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in March, as seasonal market dependency increases further, and will likely persist until September.

To find out more, see Cameroon's Food Security Outlook from February to September 2022.

Mali

• Cereal production for the 2021/2022 season is virtually the same as the five-year average (-6 percent), which means that food availability in the country is satisfactory. However, localized reductions in harvests due to drought or insecurity have reduced food availability in insecure areas in the center and north, where access to certain markets has been disrupted.
• The overall average livestock conditions in the country are favorable to a normal pastoral lean season from April to June, except in the western Sahel strip and in parts of the central and northern insecure zones, where it will be early in February instead of April due to the grazing deficit and unusual herd concentrations. 
• Households' access to cereals is average overall due to the average availability of own production and payments in kind. However, ongoing conflict is expected to continue negatively impacting the economic environment and lowering household incomes, while high prices compared to the five-year average and reduced  goat-to-millet terms of trade will continue to have a negative effect on poor people's access to food. 
• Minimum (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in the Western Sahel will deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from April to September due to the early lean period caused by the rapid depletion of stocks and the atypical rise in cereal prices, which is affecting poor households’ ability to access food. In Liptako Gourma, the current Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from April to September 2022 as a result of the negative impacts of insecurity on livelihoods and the use of negative coping strategies to reduce the volume and quality of meals, as well as the sale of capital goods. 

To find out more, see Mali's Food Security Outlook from February to September 2022.

Niger

• Cereal supplies are below average due to low carryover stocks and lower rainfed agricultural production in 2021 due to rainfall deficits and reduced acreage. Market supplies are also below average but are sufficient to meet demand, which consists mainly of commercial and institutional purchases. Commodity market prices in January 2022 are also substantially higher than their five-year average, as observed across the West Africa and Sahel region.
• All pastoral zones recorded a drop in forage production due to rainfall deficits and disrupted access to grazing land due to conflict. However, the forage available is sufficient to ensure that livestock are plump and have an average market value. 
• Security tensions persist in the regions of Diffa, Tillabéry, North Tahoua, and South-West Maradi, with some outbreaks spreading to other areas. These conflicts continue to block off-season agricultural activities, disrupt the movement of livestock and agricultural labor, and hamper the functioning of markets in the affected areas of Tillabéry, Diffa, Tahoua, and Maradi.
• Overall, residual cereal stocks and food and income from off-season crops and livestock sales are supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in February 2022, enabling households to cover their food and non-food needs without adopting negative coping strategies. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are widespread in the Diffa region and southwest Maradi, where food assistance is regularly provided and covers the gaps in food needs. In the Tillabéry region and northern Tahoua, poor households are unable to cover their food needs, as shortfalls in cereal and financial stocks are compounded by shortfalls in access to food aid due to conflict and insecurity, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes for the majority of poor households.

To find out more, see Niger's Food Security Outlook from February to September 2022.

Nigeria

• Humanitarian assistance needs in Nigeria are expected to be abnormally high during the June to September peak of the lean season, with the greatest concentration of needs in the northeastern, northwestern, and north-central states. These high needs are driven by high levels of conflict disrupting livelihood activities and displacing populations, low production, and well above-average prices not only in Nigeria but across West Africa. The most severe results are expected in certain inaccessible areas of the northeast, where Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected, and generalized Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely until at least September in the northeastern, northwestern, and north-central states.
• Due to persistently poor macroeconomic conditions, rising transportation costs, and below-average production, high food prices are limiting household purchasing power. Despite rising international oil prices, macroeconomic conditions remain poor, as annual inflation remains high. High domestic fuel prices mean high transport costs, putting further pressure on local markets. Food prices remain well above average across the country and will continue to rise, peaking from June to September. Prices for maize, a staple food for many poor households, were 27 percent higher than last year in January at Dawanu market in Kano and 65 percent above average.
• Conflict persists in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states, disrupting livelihood activities. Many poor and conflict-affected households have depleted their own food stocks and are dependent on the market. High staple food prices and limited access to income mean that many households are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Households most affected by the conflict and those in hard-to-reach areas have limited access to humanitarian aid and rely mainly on wild foods. As a result, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are present and expected to persist in the LGAs of Kukawa, Guzamala, Abadam, Gubio, and Magumeri in Borno State.
• Increasing conflict in the northwest and north-central regions is limiting access to food and income, which is further constrained by abnormally high food prices. The dry season harvest in April/May will be below average, limiting improvements in access to food produced. During the typical lean season between June and September, households are likely to have limited food stocks and face well above-average food prices. In addition, income opportunities and wages are likely to be below average, leading to a reduction in purchasing power. Access to food is likely to decline as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes become more widespread over the June to September period. Some households will experience significant food consumption deficits and will likely face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
• In areas less affected by the conflict, most households have been able to participate in the main-season harvest and consume own-produced food. In addition, these households are earning income from agricultural work during the current dry-season cultivation period. However, abnormally high food prices, localized conflicts in the southeast, some flooding, and low household purchasing power will result in limited income for poor households. As a result, these households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during the lean season.

To find out more, see Nigeria's Food Security Outlook from February to September 2022.

Chad

• The need for humanitarian assistance in Chad and throughout West Africa will be high between June and September, the peak of the agricultural lean season. These high needs are driven by an increase in intercommunal conflicts, insecurity, and rainfall disruptions during the past season, as well as above-average prices. Internally displaced populations (IDPs) and host households on the Lake will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes for as long as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are widespread in the rest of the country between February and September. 
• An upsurge in community conflicts has been reported since January 2022. In Lac, insecurity linked to Boko Haram and the Province of the Islamic State in West Africa continues to affect the livelihoods of displaced people and host households, as in most hot spots. 
• A deterioration in the pastoral situation has been reported in most localities in agropastoral and transhumance zones. Faced with a dwindling grass cover and drying water sources, animals are fed by aerial grazing and supplementation (oilcake, bran, hay, etc.). In these areas, an early pastoral lean period is reported as early as February. 
• Given the earlier and greater dependence on markets due to lower production and depleted household stocks, a general upward trend in cereal prices, including millet prices, compared with the five-year average is reported in Abéché, Mao, Moussoro, Bol, and N'Djaména, limiting market access for very poor and poor households. These higher-than-average price levels are in line with the general trends observed in the West Africa and Sahel region. 

For more information, see the Chad Food Security Outlook from February to September 2022.

Countries monitored remotely^[1]

Mauritania 

• Due to low household income levels and the continuing rise in food prices, a large proportion of the poor and very poor continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes, most noticeable from April/May through to September 2022, particularly in rainfed, agropastoral and pastoral farming areas. During the harsher lean season from April to June, many households in these livelihood zones are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, but these households will be less than 20 percent of the total population in these zones.
• Prices for basic necessities are still higher than last year and the five-year average in the country and in most of the West African region, due to poor harvests in 2021/22 and high transportation and sea freight costs.
• The 2021 pastoral season was marked by negative biomass production in almost all zones, particularly in Tagant, Assaba, central and northern Guidimakha, central and northern Hodset, and Gorgol, leading to early and massive departures of transhumant herders towards the southern parts of the country (Figure 1). A drop in production and income prospects for poor households is expected, particularly in agropastoral (MR07) and rainfed farming (MR09) areas. 
• Adequately supplied markets remain the main source of food for almost all poor and very poor households, while internal and external flows of basic foodstuffs from Mali and Senegal are regular. 

To find out more, see the February to September 2022 remote monitoring update for Mauritania.

Central African Republic

• As of December 31, 2021, the total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in CAR was estimated at 691,791, an increase of 3.3 percent compared with November (CMP, December 2021). The presence of the various armed forces involved continued to profoundly disrupt the economic activities and livelihoods of rural populations in hard-hit areas.
• Market supplies of basic foodstuffs are average in areas less affected by conflict and below-average in rebel-occupied and hard-to-reach areas. Prices of local products are slightly up compared to last year during the same period, while those of imported products remain high, mainly due to high transportation costs and road congestion along the country's supply corridor. 
• In areas less affected by conflict, a large proportion of households will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes until September 2022. However, IDPs and poor host households will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until September 2022. These include the most vulnerable poor and very poor households in the conflict zones of the southeastern prefectures and displaced households in the northwestern, northeastern, and central prefectures that face early stock depletion and low income levels.

To find out more, see the February to September 2022 update on remote monitoring of the Central African Republic.