Insecurity and conflict continue to lead to high levels of food insecurity

• Moderate rainfall continues in March in the Gulf of Guinea bimodal zone. Seasonal precipitation forecasts for the Gulf of Guinea indicate average to above-average rainfall amounts for the main agricultural season and overall average to surplus runoff in most coastal basins. 

• Ongoing off-season harvests in Sahelian countries continue to reinforce food supplies from above-average rainfed harvests in 2020/21. The availability of pasture and water points is satisfactory, but access to them in areas affected by insecurity, conflict, and banditry remains a concern for herds, in addition to the limitations on transhumance related to COVID-19 restrictions. The concentration of livestock in more secure areas could lead to premature degeneration of pastures. 

• Persistent insecurity continues to maintain high levels of displacement in the region, with 1,723,972 people displaced in the Liptako Gourma, 65 percent of whom are in Burkina Faso, and 5,118,035 people displaced in the Lake Chad Basin, 76 percent of whom are in Nigeria (IOM, February 2021). Livelihoods are disrupted for most of these displaced people. 

• Despite various restrictions linked to COVID-19, market supplies are currently close to average in several countries but below average in several parts of the eastern basin. Market and trade disruptions persist in the Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, northwestern and north-central Nigeria, and the northwestern and southwestern regions of Cameroon. Insecurity in southern Libya also limits the flow of products imported into Chad. In Nigeria, food trade remains affected by the persistent depreciation of the naira, inflation, and persistent restrictions at land borders despite their official reopening. Demand for cereals is above average in Nigeria due to atypically early depletion of household stocks, and in Niger due to greater replenishment of merchant and institutional stocks. Staple food prices are down or stable compared to the previous month but remain generally above last year's levels and the average. Livestock prices vary according to market and species but are generally similar to the average for small ruminants but lower for cattle, more affected by the drop in cross-border trade, particularly in the eastern basin.

• Looking ahead, market supplies of basic foodstuffs will be sufficient to meet demand throughout the 2020/21 consumption year but will remain below average in most of the eastern basin. Prices will be above average overall, given the above-average replenishment of merchant and institutional stocks. Regional trade will remain dynamic, albeit with slight disruptions due to COVID-19 restrictions and insecurity.

• The majority of areas will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until September 2021, with some facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, including many urban households hard hit by the restrictive measures relating to COVID-19, which have reduced access to typical livelihoods, resulting in lower incomes and purchasing power. In areas affected by civil insecurity, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) will persist until September 2021 due to food assistance. These areas include the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger and in the Sanmatenga province of Burkina Faso. 

• Due to persistent conflict, current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist until September in several border areas in the north and northeast of Burkina Faso, the Tillabéry region and north of Tahoua in Niger, the Lac region in Chad, the northwest and northeast of Nigeria, the far north of Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. In the northwest and southwest of Cameroon, also affected by conflict and low production, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes that lasted until June could improve slightly in July with the new harvests. As a result, households may transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In Nigeria, IDPs in camps located in inaccessible areas near the Lake Chad Basin are said to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with very limited access to food and income and reduced humanitarian access.

Cameroon

• Household food stocks in the conflict-affected northwest and southwest are atypically depleted due to a below-average fourth production season and below-average farm incomes in 2020. From February onwards, an increase in households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is expected until the harvest in July.
• Ongoing off-season harvests in the far north are improving poor households' access to food and income. However, production remains below average in Logone et Chari and Mayo Sava. Poor households in these departments, severely disrupted by insecurity, are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes.
• In the departments of Mbere and Kadey, above-average food prices and below-average incomes due to competition for employment opportunities with refugees from the Central African Republic (CAR) continue to expose host communities to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. The closure since December 2020 of the main roads linking CAR is disrupting cross-border trade and transhumance and raising current food prices in the main border towns by an average of 20 percent to 30 percent.

To find out more, see Cameroon's Food Security Outlook from February to September 2021.

Mali

• The increase of about 20 percent in overall production compared with the five-year average is conducive to satisfactory food availability in the country during the 2020/2021 food year. The availability of own production, the seasonal fall in cereal prices, and the average off-season harvests currently underway will improve household access to food.
• The drop in income for 47.3 percent of households as a result of COVID-19 and the after-effects of insecurity, particularly in the center and north of the country, are having a negative impact on household livelihoods and consequently on their ability to access adequate food.
• Overall average to above-average livestock conditions are favorable for a normal pastoral lean season in the country from March 2021 onwards. However, disruptions to herd movements due to insecurity will limit livestock access to adequate feed in some parts of the northern and central regions, leading to a fall in pastoral incomes due to reduced body condition and livestock production.
• Due to households’ inability to meet their food needs without resorting to atypical coping strategies and the continued deterioration of their livelihoods in connection due to residual insecurity coupled with the effects of COVID-19, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May onwards for poor households in Liptako Gourma and parts of the northern regions. The same will apply to poor displaced households and flood victims from July to August 2020.

To find out more, see Mali's Food Security Outlook from February to September 2021.

Niger

• Direct and indirect effects of the security and health crises on the movement of people and goods, as well as on livelihood and market activities, are expected to persist, leading to food insecurity in the country.
• Due to near-average agricultural production, food availability is supporting adequate household consumption. Availability is also good in the pastoral zone, thanks to an overall surplus in forage production, sufficient for animals until March to April 2021.
• With above-average production of cash crops (cowpeas, groundnuts, sesame, sorrel, etc.), animal products, and vegetables, households are earning average incomes. Household purchasing power is strengthened by the contributions of agricultural and pastoral labor and self-employment in most livelihood zones.
• Areas affected by persistent conflict are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the northern zone of the Tillabery and Tahoua regions and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in the Diffa region and southern Maradi due to the assistance provided. In the majority of livelihood zones, households are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes, which will continue until September 2021.

For more information, see Niger's Food Security Outlook from February to September 2021.

Nigeria

• High levels of conflict in northeast Nigeria are limiting dry-season harvests and agricultural labor activities. This, coupled with limited purchasing power, is likely to result in persistent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes across much of the northeast. Households in hard-to-reach areas mostly have little or no food stocks and rely on wild foods. These households also face limited market access and are expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists, and famine could occur in the worst-case scenario if there is a dramatic increase or escalation in conflict that limits access to typical food and income sources and humanitarian aid for a prolonged period.
• In areas of the northeast where there is a concentration of IDPs, humanitarian actors are generally able to access households and distribute aid. In addition, market and trade activities function somewhat better in these areas than in adjacent inaccessible zones. As a result, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2 !) outcomes are expected at least until May. In addition, in the urban areas of the northeast, particularly in and around Maiduguri, household purchasing power should be somewhat better, and Stressed! results (IPC Phase 2!) are expected well into 2021.
• Recent attacks in the LGAs of Marte and Dikwa in Borno State have led to an increase in displacement and deaths and a significant decline in engagement in livelihood activities by affected households. These attacks are worrisome because some populations have been displaced several times in a short space of time. Many conflict-affected households have moved to neighboring areas, others to Maiduguri. Some of the most vulnerable populations, including many elderly people, women, and children, are likely to remain in their areas of origin, with less-than-normal access to food, typical sources of income, and humanitarian aid.
• Increased levels of conflict compared with previous years are disrupting typical livelihood activities in the northwest, where most affected households are expected to remain dependent on markets for food. Income opportunities such as petty trade, construction work, water sales, and agricultural labor will most likely remain below average, particularly in areas where households are displaced. Access to food is likely to remain low as staple food prices are expected to remain atypically high, leading to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the scenario period in the areas most affected by conflict. 
• Despite marginal increases in crude oil prices, poor economic conditions persist in Nigeria, as foreign exchange reserves remain low and the annual inflation rate remains persistently high and is at its highest level since April 2017. The dry-season harvest should slightly improve market supply. Due to poor macroeconomic conditions and the 2020/2021 harvest deemed below average, commodity prices are well above average and are expected to remain high until at least the end of 2021. However, high demand and low supply in conflict-affected areas, combined with the poor macroeconomic situation, should push prices even higher. 

To find out more, see the Nigeria Food Security Outlook report from February to September 2021.

Chad

• Grain market supplies continue to be disrupted by speculation on transport, which is reducing supply volumes, particularly in the western Sahel. As a result, millet prices in Ngouri (18%), Guereda (+17%), and Abdi (+12%) will be higher than the five-year average at the end of January 2021. The same trend can be observed for maize prices in Bol (+18%).
• The off-season agropastoral campaign is proceeding normally due to the favorable rainy season. Berberé production is expected to be slightly higher than the five-year average, thanks to good residual humidity and increased planted areas. The pastoral situation is stable thanks to the good availability of natural pasture, reinforced by crop residues, and good watering levels.
• The Covid-19 pandemic continues to exacerbate the precariousness of very poor and poor households due to government restrictions. This is reflected in falling incomes, the main sources of which are steadily deteriorating. This affects the food situation in most deficit areas and even around major urban centers.
• Host and displaced households in the Lac region would be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the absence of humanitarian assistance. In Tibesti, food access is limited by falling incomes, and households are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In the rest of the country, most households are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes due to good levels of agricultural produce boosted by off-season harvests.

For more information, see the Chad Food Security Outlook from February to September 2021.

Countries monitored remotely^[1]

Burkina Faso

• Populations in border areas in the north and northeast continue to suffer incursions and atrocities by terrorist groups, leading to disruption of local markets and a continuing deterioration in livelihoods. Due to the early depletion of household stocks as a result of the drop in production, displaced people and host populations are dependent on markets. The seasonal rise in above-average food prices, falling incomes, and inadequate humanitarian assistance will leave them exposed to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until September, while they await the new harvests.
• Market supply of cereals is below average due to localized production decreases and producers holding back stocks. Prices are now slightly above average due to increased demand to replenish merchant stocks and additional requirements for processing units, as well as outflows to neighboring Niger. This rise could continue until the end of the lean season in September. 
• Availability of off-season labor opportunities has increased due to difficult access to gold panning sites due to insecurity and obstacles to migratory flows with the closure of borders. However, insufficient water, pest attacks, and insecurity limiting access to certain perimeters will reduce production compared with the average. In addition, the reduction in demand linked to the drop in the number of foreign buyers has led to a slight fall in prices for producers.

To find out more, see the February to September update on remote monitoring in Burkina Faso.

Mauritania 

• Typical household food access and Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes are expected  through May due to average to above-average stocks from self-production, additional harvests expected from the cold and hot off-season, and ongoing cash distributions enabling poor households to offset income losses from migration transfers and the informal sector. 
• Between June and September, livelihoods will remain under pressure, particularly in the agropastoral (MR07) and rainfed (MR09) zones and in urban areas, due to the decline in remittances, the negative impacts of past floods and Rift Valley Fever, and speculative behavior that is keeping imported food prices higher than last year and thus reducing household purchasing power. Poor households in these areas will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during the period.  
• The availability of pastoral resources is sufficient to encourage normal transhumance movements from deficit areas in the north to areas in the south. From May onwards, cross-border transhumance could also be typical towards neighboring areas of Senegal and Mali, with returns expected in July/August as pastures regenerate. These conditions will favor typical breeding of small ruminants from the second quarter of the year onwards. However, for cattle and camels, the return to normal calving levels could be delayed until next year, due to the consequences of undernourishment during the last two lean periods.
• Good pastoral conditions reduce the need for farmers to buy supplementary feed on the market. Similarly, cash distributions, which reach around 41 percent of households, have enabled them to decrease seasonal sales. The terms of trade between livestock and cereals are in their favor, and this is set to continue over the coming months, as the increased demand for animals for the Ramadan holidays in May and Tabaski in July will enable prices to rise above the seasonal average between February and September.   

To find out more, see the February to September update on remote monitoring in Mauritania.

Central African Republic

• Population displacement, rising prices, falling incomes, early depletion of self-generated stocks, and inaccessibility to assistance are the factors degrading household food access, with flood victims in the north, and IDPs and poor host populations in the northwest, east, and southeast expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between February and September.
• The blockage of the main supply route to Cameroon, the ongoing curfew, and the poor state of the roads are limiting the number of people visiting and supplying markets with both local and imported products. This is driving price volatility. Market supplies in the capital are made possible by goods escorts, and the possibility of isolated blockages on other roads cannot be ruled out, given the dispersal of rebel groups in several prefectures. The supply of foodstuffs could remain below the average of the last two years, with prices slightly higher until September, particularly for imported products.
• Continued fighting could disrupt soil preparation activities between February and June. Similarly, lower-than-normal incomes and difficulties in accessing markets will limit producers' acquisition of inputs. Overall, the area to be planted for the coming season is likely to be lower than last season.

To find out more, see the February to September 2020 updates on remote monitoring of the Central African Republic.