Food insecurity remains severe in conflict zones despite the onset of the overwintering season

• The current situation is characterized by the onset of the agro-silvo-pastoral season, with the rainy season starting in all areas of the Sahelian strip countries, prompting the start of agricultural production activities and the regeneration of grassland in pastoral areas, which significantly improves the body condition of livestock. However, the situation is still worrying in conflict zones, particularly in Liptako Gourma and the Lake Chad basin where livelihoods are disrupted and forage resources and water points are increasingly inaccessible. Pastoralist migrations to their areas of origin are also being disrupted. 
• The persistent security crisis in the Sahel countries is leading to population movements. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), in June 2024, the Sahel and Liptako Gourma area registered 3,125,192 displaced individuals, 67 percent of whom were in Burkina Faso, 14 percent in Mali, 11 percent in Niger, and 4 percent in Mauritania. The IOM also reported that 6,096,157 displaced persons were registered in the Lake Chad basin, with 74 percent in Nigeria. This illustrates the deterioration of the security situation, resulting in a disruption of pastoralist migration of to their areas of origin, dysfunction of market supply flow, and a negative impact on the livelihoods of households living in these areas. 
• Cereal prices rose in several markets between May and June 2024, driven by the seasonal depletion of stocks and strong demand. Prices have remained above their five-year average due to a reduction in availability, limited stock replenishment, prolonged insecurity, and persistent trade restrictions, among other factors. Prices were also above last year's levels, particularly in Niger due to production deficits and reduced inflows from neighboring countries; in parts of Chad due to transportation costs, strong demand, and reduced imports of manufactured goods from Libya; and in the far north of Cameroon due to insecurity-related crop failures and strong cross-border demand. In Nigeria, markedly high food prices continue due to the near-30-year record inflation, the weakness of the Nigerian naira (NGN), and high fuel prices. Prices are expected to remain on the rise throughout the lean season and will be above average across the region. 
• The majority of areas will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through September 2024. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in areas affected by civil insecurity and will persist through June 2024: in the North and East regions of Burkina Faso; the West, East, and North-Central regions of Niger; the Sahelo-Saharan strip and Lake Chad; the West and Northwest of Mali; the Far West, Center, and East of Nigeria; and the Southwest, Northwest, and Far North of Cameroon. From June to September, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) will be observed in the same regions of Burkina Faso. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will continue in Chad, Mali, Niger, the aforementioned states in Nigeria, and in the Far North, Northwest, and Southwest regions of Cameroon. 
• Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) will be observed in the provinces of Loroum, Soum, Bam, Oudalan, and Tapoa in Burkina Faso through September 2024. The Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes currently observed in the inaccessible LGAs of the Northeast states of Nigeria (Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Bama) will persist through September due to very limited household food stocks, disruptions to livelihoods, and restricted access to markets and humanitarian aid. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will continue in the Ménaka Region of Mali due to degraded security conditions that limit household access to markets and the pronounced deterioration of livelihoods. 
• From October 2024 on, the majority of areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through January 2025 given the availability of harvests that will improve seasonal access to food. In areas affected by civil insecurity, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes will be observed: Loroum, Bam, Komandjari, Seno, Soum, Yagha, Oudalan, Kompienga, and Tapoa provinces in Burkina Faso. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will be observed in Tillabéry, Tahoua de Maradi, and Diffa regions in Niger. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will also be observed in Ménaka (Mali) because of improved food access conditions for poor households from livestock products; the same will apply to the regions of Chad mentioned above and the Northwest and Southwest regions in Cameroon. However, in Nigeria, the inaccessible LGAs of the Northeast states (Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Bama) will remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through January 2025 due to a deterioration in food access and the populations’ livelihoods.

Burkina Faso

Key messages

• Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected between June and September, especially in the insecure areas of the east and north of the country. The erosion of assets, irregular market supply, and the restricted movement impeding access to income will cause displaced populations and poor host households to depend on food assistance. In most areas under blockade, food assistance will prevent worse outcomes. However, in the municipalities of Bourzanga and Diapaga, the increase in security incidents has limited the delivery of assistance, and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected. 
• FEWS NET estimates that 2 to 2.5 million people will need food assistance during the lean season between June and August. While food assistance is expected to partially mitigate levels of acute food insecurity across much of the north, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are still expected. Additionally, in areas with a high presence of displaced people and under blockade, some poor households are likely to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) conditions. 
• While the start of harvests will improve acute food insecurity in several regions, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist in the northern and eastern insecure areas between October and January. The conflict limits households' access to fields and disrupts market supplies. Although the delivery of food assistance should continue in the north, the levels of assistance need to be increased to prevent food consumption gaps. 
• While food assistance generally decreases after October, historical trends and current humanitarian priorities suggest that it will continue in the areas under blockade. FEWS NET therefore estimates that Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes will persist. However, if food assistance is not maintained and/or the conflict escalates, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will be likely. 

For more information, including events that could change the most likely scenario, see the Food Security Outlook report for Burkina Faso from June 2024 to January 2025.

Cameroon

Key messages

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist through September in conflict-affected areas of the Far North region, particularly in the Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Mayo-Sava divisions. Additionally, an above-average risk of flooding is forecast in these areas between July and September. This is likely to result in above-average crop losses and temporary displacements. By October, area-level outcomes will likely improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with improved food access from own-production beginning in September. However, many households are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to below-average harvests following the impacts of conflict and flooding.
• The main harvest will temporarily improve food access from July to September for some areas in the conflict-affected northwest and southwest regions. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to reemerge from October 2024 to January 2025. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected throughout the projection period in more remote and insecure divisions of Lebialem, Momo, and Menchum, where production is anticipated to be significantly lower than during pre-conflict years. Many households in these divisions will likely continue to experience food consumption gaps or resort to negative coping strategies, such as buying food on credit or selling remaining assets, through September.
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through January 2025 in divisions hosting large refugee populations, notably Mbéré in Adamawa, and Kadey and Lom-et-Djerem in the East region. Even though food availability and access for refugees and host community households are likely to improve as harvesting begins in July, households will still have to resort to negative coping strategies given the high food prices and competition for job opportunities. 
• FEWS NET estimates that humanitarian assistance needs are currently at their annual peak in June, with approximately 1.5 to 2.0 million people (mainly refugees, IDPs, and returnees) in need. However, as in the last several years, total needs remain significantly higher than planned assistance levels, and a further scaling down of assistance is likely due to severe funding shortages.

For more information, including events that could change the most likely scenario, see the Food Security Outlook report for Cameroon from June 2024 to January 2025.

Mali

Key messages

• A shift in food insecurity from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is anticipated in the insecure areas in central and northern Mali through September. FEWS NET estimates that 1.5 to 2.0 million people will need emergency food assistance during the June to August lean season. Although the number of people in need will decrease in the post-harvest period, needs will remain high in the northern part of the country, particularly among IDPs and poor host households.
• The persistence of incidents causing further insecurity will continue to disrupt livelihoods, particularly in the center and north of the country. In Ménaka, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will persist through September, with a proportion of households in inaccessible areas facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes. 
• Poor households' access to markets is lower than normal due to food price increases above the five-year average, the deterioration of livestock-cereal terms of trade for pastoralists, and the overall drop in household income. In the insecure areas of the central and northern regions, these price increases negatively impact the access of poor households to food, especially in pastoral areas and among IDPs, where households rely on markets for the majority of their food needs.
• The onset of the 2024/25 agricultural season is underway in the country. Normal to surplus rainfall is expected, and the government's subsidies for agricultural inputs favor an overall average cereal production in the country. However, if the dry spells disrupt crop growth, an increase in the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will be likely in the south of the country between October and January. 

For more information, including events that could change the most likely scenario, see the Food Security Outlook report for Mali from June 2024 to January 2025.

Niger

Key messages

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in some areas of Niger from June 2024 to January 2025. The areas affected include poor households and displaced populations in the regions of Tillabéry, northwest Tahoua, Diffa, and Southwest Maradi, impacted by conflicts and insecurity. The security crisis is causing forced displacement of populations, resulting in loss of food sources and income. Market disruptions characterized by very high food prices, coupled with the effects of floods, are also limiting access to food and income. 
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will dominate in the agricultural and agropastoral areas of the North, Center, and Southwest of the country through September 2024. Poor households are facing depletion of cereal stocks and very high food prices, as well as rainstorms and floods that affect labor demand. From October 2024 to January 2025, new harvests and agricultural employment opportunities will improve household access to food and income. 
• In pastoral areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes observed in June 2024 are expected to transition to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) between late July 2024 and January 2025. In June 2024, pastoral households are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to very high food prices, while livestock prices are decreasing due to fodder deficits and delayed onset of rainfall in pastoral areas. However, from July 2024 to January 2025, improved access to pastures and water will enhance livestock body conditions, market value, and milk production.
• The coverage rate of food assistance will be low between June 2024 and January 2025 due to insufficient funding and restrictions on travel without military escorts in insecure areas. However, the population in need through January 2025 is estimated to be between 2.5 to 3 million people. 

For more information, including events that could change the most likely scenario, see the Food Security Outlook report for Niger from June 2024 to January 2025.

Nigeria

Key messages

• The conflict continues to drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in northeast, northwest, and northcentral Nigeria. Many years of protracted conflict in the northeast and increasing conflict in the northwest and central-north are disrupting livelihood activities, limiting access to income-generating activities, causing population displacement, and restricting access to food. In inaccessible areas of the northeast, households are likely to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through January 2025 as they continue to have restricted mobility, reduced access to markets, and depleted coping capacity.
• FEWS NET estimates that between 17 and 18 million people will need humanitarian assistance during the lean season from June to August 2024. The populations of greatest concern include those in inaccessible areas, IDPs in garrison towns, and IDPs in camps in the northeast, closely followed by displaced populations in the northwest and center-north states.
• The macroeconomic crisis persists, with inflation reaching a nearly 30-year high and the NGN continually devaluating. Households across the country are facing rising prices for basic necessities, while labor wages have not been able to keep pace, causing widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Households vulnerable to conflict and the macroeconomic crisis, including IDPs, are the most affected.
• Humanitarian food assistance in the northeast reached about 1.0 million beneficiaries, which covered around 70 percent of their monthly kilocalorie needs, with IDPs in camps as the main beneficiaries. However, food assistance is expected to be reduced in October after the main season harvest despite persisting high needs.

For more information, including events that could change the most likely scenario, see the Food Security Outlook report for Nigeria from June 2024 to January 2025.

Chad

Key messages

• Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in the Eastern provinces of Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, and East Ennedi, which are hosting Sudanese refugees and returning Chadians. The steady influx of refugees and returning migrants puts a strain on livelihoods and intensifies competition for the few available economic opportunities. They have limited access to food and income sources due to their low purchasing power and are reliant on food assistance. 
• The influx of Sudanese refugees and returning Chadians to the Eastern provinces will increase the number of people in need of assistance, despite host households having access to food from own-production during the harvest period in September. FEWS NET estimates that 2.0 to 2.5 million people will need food assistance during the lean season from June to August 2024. 
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are also anticipated in West Sahel, Lac, and the provinces bordering Libya in the Sahara. Insecurity is causing population displacement and disrupting agricultural activities in the Lac region. In West Sahel and the Sahara, rising fuel prices are disrupting the flow of goods from Libya and internal trade, which affect market supplies and lead to a significant increase in food prices in these regions.
• The Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes observed in June will subsequently transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the agricultural areas of the South as the lean season depletes stocks. However, despite the irregular distribution of rainfall, quantities ranging from normal to above-normal levels mean that an average cereal production is expected for the 2024/25 agricultural season. 

For more information, including events that could change the most likely scenario, see the Food Security Outlook report for Chad from June 2024 to January 2025.

Remotely monitored countries

Mauritania

Key messages

• FEWS NET estimates that 250,000 to 500,000 people will need humanitarian food assistance from June to September. Populations are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) among poor agricultural and agropastoral households in the southcentral and southwestern regions that have experienced high rainfall deficits during the last agricultural season. These households faced an early depletion of stocks, and livestock migration was atypically early. The southeast of Hodh El Chargui is of greatest concern, given the added pressure from the arrival of thousands of Malian refugees in recent months. This region is expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September. 
• Some poor and very poor households in the Nouakchott peri-urban areas will also be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between June and September. These households face high prices, very limited economic opportunities, and low purchasing power. 
• The arrival of rains starting in mid-June will begin to improve pasture and water sources and will mark the end of the lean season for pastoralist households whose access to livestock products will improve. Livestock body conditions and prices will improve, resulting in favorable terms of trade for pastoralists. 
• Between October 2024 and January 2025, most households are expected to have access to food and income from their production and livestock, which will result in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However, short dry spells towards the beginning of the season, followed by longer intervals towards the end of the season, are likely to reduce crop yields in some places and lead to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes for some households. Refugee and host populations in the southeast are also likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January 2025.

For more information, including events that could change the most likely scenario, see the Remote Monitoring report for Mauritania from June 2024 to January 2025.

Central African Republic

Key messages

• FEWS NET estimates that 500,000 to 1.0 million people will need humanitarian food assistance during the peak of the lean season, from June to August. The population in need is concentrated in the east and northwest of the country, mainly in areas with a high concentration of IDPs, refugees, and flood victims. 
• Populations in the prefectures most affected by the conflict, including Haut-Mbomou, Haute-Kotto, Ouham-Pendé, and Vakaga will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). These areas of concern shelter many IDPs and refugees, while frequent attacks continue to disrupt the normal functioning of markets, the movement of people, agricultural activities, and other income-generating activities, such as foraging and fishing.
• Poor households in the center and north, who are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes or worse, will see improved food conditions following the harvests in September. However, high prices and a low coping capacity due to several years of conflict that have eroded their livelihoods will cause Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes to persist despite the harvests.
• Food assistance needs will remain high through January 2025. The combined effects of conflict and prolonged insecurity, as well as seasonal flooding, will lead to high levels of acute food insecurity in areas of greatest concern throughout the projection period.

For more information, including events that could change the most likely scenario, see the Remote Monitoring report for the Central African Republic from June 2024 to January 2025.

Togo

Key messages

• FEWS NET estimates that 100,000 to 500,000 people are likely to need humanitarian food assistance during the peak of the lean season, from June to August. The population in need is likely to be concentrated in the Savanes Region, which is home to refugees, IDPs, and host communities affected by civil insecurity.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in the Savanes Region through August, although the September harvest will improve food insecurity and will lead to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from October 2024 to January 2025.
• In the Kara Region, food conditions for poor households should improve from September/October onwards from the harvest. Some poor households experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during the lean season from June to August should transition to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from October 2024 to January 2025. 
• From October to January, poor households in the rest of the country should be able to cover their basic food and non-food needs and benefit from stable food security. New harvests and typical income-generating activities such as the sale of wood and charcoal, the sale of forest products, agricultural employment, and sale of crafts will allow households to avoid resorting to coping strategies through January 2025. 

For more information, including events that could change the most likely scenario, see the Remote Monitoring report for Togo from June 2024 to January 2025.