High food insecurity for many poor and displaced households in conflict zones despite October harvests

• The increase in rainfall in the second ten days of July allowed for the widespread sowing of crops in Sahelian zones, the growth of already-sown crops, the regeneration of pastures, and improved availability of watering points. Heavy rainfall in mid-July caused flooding in Niger and Nigeria, resulting in significant damage to livelihoods, infrastructure, and loss of human lives. Seasonal totals show above-average rainfall in much of the region in July, except for the western Sahel, southern and central Mali, and the southern and southeastern parts of Nigeria. Moderate to heavy rainfall at the end of July and in the first ten days of August should support crop development, but excess moisture could slow weeding or trigger new floods in already saturated areas.

• Insecurity and armed conflicts in the Lake Chad Basin, the northwest and north-central regions of Nigeria, the Tibesti region in Chad, and the northwest and southwest regions of Cameroon, as well as the intensification of conflict in the Liptako-Gourma region, continue to drive population displacement. As of June 30, 2022, 2,641,477 displaced people were registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma region, 73 percent of whom were in Burkina Faso, and 5,595,800 others were in the Lake Chad Basin, 75 percent of whom were in Nigeria (IOM, June 2022). Typical livelihoods, market and trade activities, transhumance, as well as access to basic social services and the delivery of humanitarian assistance are severely disrupted in these areas.   

• Food prices have remained significantly above average in general, in a context of rising global prices for commodities and fuel. In the Sahel, these high price levels are primarily due to the early depletion of stocks following last season’s drop in production, the increased need for replenishment, various national restrictions on cereal exports, and ongoing insecurity, especially in the Lake Chad Basin and the Liptako-Gourma region. In the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea, prices are mainly driven by high industrial and export demand, the depreciation of national currencies, and the sharp rise in import costs. Prices are therefore expected to remain above average throughout the lean season.

• With the harvests starting in October, most areas will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until January 2023, while some areas will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, in the regions of Diffa, southern Maradi in Niger, and the Lac region in Chad, which are affected by civil insecurity, Stressed ! (IPC Phase 2!) will persist until January 2023, supported by food assistance. In the Yagha and Séno provinces in Burkina Faso, the northern and western parts of the Tahoua and Tillabéri regions in Niger, the states of Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Niger, Kaduna in Nigeria, and the northern and western areas of northwest and southwest Cameroon, the current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist until January 2023 and, from November, will affect both previously mentioned regions in Cameroon.

• In several areas, the food situation will slightly improve from October due to the new harvests, enabling households to shift to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). These areas include the Bam, Sanmatenga, Namentenga, Gnagna, Komondjari, Gourma, Yatenga, Lorum, Kossi, and Sourou provinces in Burkina Faso; the Kanem, Bar el Gazel, Wadi Fira regions, western Hadjer Lamis, and eastern Batha in Chad; the northern and western parts of the Far North region in Cameroon; eastern Mopti and southern Timbuktu in Mali; and specific areas in northern Nigerian states. Due to armed conflicts, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will persist until January 2023, in the Soum province (Sahel region), Oudalan, and the northern areas of the North and Center-North regions in Burkina Faso, as well as the northern and western parts of Borno in Nigeria. However, the severity will decrease to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the western and part of the northern areas of Borno. 

Burkina Faso

• The persistence of attacks, threats, and control of supply routes by militant armed groups negatively affects household assets and food access in areas most impacted by insecurity. In the Oudalan province in particular, a survey conducted by FEWS NET in May and June reveals that 60 percent of host households and 75 percent of internally displaced persons (IDPs) are adopting extreme livelihood strategies, facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. A similar or worse situation is likely in Soum province, which has been under blockade since February.
• In other provinces of the northern half of the country, insecurity continues to increase the number of IDPs heavily concentrated in urban centers, limit income opportunities, and hinder market supply, resulting in atypically high prices for basic food items. Poor host households and IDPs are facing significant consumption gaps and are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• The atypical increase in food prices affects the entire country due to below-average supply, higher demand, additional effects of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on wheat, oil, and fertilizer prices, and inflationary pressures amplified by rising fuel and transportation costs. The Harmonized Consumer Price Index reached a record level of 24.5 percent in May (INSD, IHPC), and five-year price variations for staple cereals in May ranged from 70 to 80 percent, with prices doubling in blockaded areas

To learn more, see the Burkina Faso Food Security Outlook report for June to January 2023.

Cameroon

• Cameroon’s economic outlook for 2022 is positive, following economic improvements that began in 2021 as the country gradually recovered from the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 in 2020. However, the Russia-Ukraine war poses a setback to this recovery by further increasing already high global prices for commodities and energy. Overall, food prices across the country have risen atypically since 2020 (Figure 1) and were well above the five-year average as of June 2022.
• Poor households in the Far North, Northwest, and Southwest regions are already vulnerable to price increases due to the impact of conflicts and insecurity. The additional rise in prices of essential food and non-food items further reduces the purchasing power of these households, most of whom currently rely on food purchases from the market. These conditions, combined with below-average incomes, are creating significant food consumption deficits and forcing most poor households to adopt coping strategies at Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels.
• Outcomes for most poor households across the country are expected to improve as they consume their own production and earn income from crop sales and agricultural labor starting in July. However, atypically high prices, low income from crop and livestock sales, and reduced employment opportunities will likely continue to limit access to food and non-food needs for poor households in the Northwest and Southwest regions, leading to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from July to October. Crisis outcomes (IPC Phase 3) are expected to re-emerge from November 2022 for the entire Northwest and Southwest regions as household food stocks deplete and market dependency increases amidst above-average staple prices and low incomes. For the Logone and Chari, Mayo Sava, and Mayo Tsanaga departments affected by the insurgency, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will likely emerge in October 2022 and persist until January 2023..

To learn more, see the Cameroon Food Security Outlook report June to January 2023.

Mali

• The 2022/2023 agricultural season began with rainfall in the first ten days of June in the southern part of the country. Despite forecasts for normal to above-average rainfall from NOAA, IRI, and PRESASS, difficulties in accessing agricultural inputs (fertilizers, seeds) and insecurity will likely lead to below-average harvests. Ongoing agricultural activities provide average income and food opportunities for poor households outside of insecure areas.
• The impact of ECOWAS economic sanctions and the Ukraine crisis continues to negatively affect the overall economy through a decline in economic activities, trade flows, and inflation in both food and non-food items. Poor households face challenges accessing markets during this lean season due to very high prices compared to the five-year average and unfavorable livestock-to-cereal terms of trade for livestock producers, amid an overall decline in income related to the effects of ECOWAS sanctions and the Ukraine crisis.
• The security situation remains volatile and is deteriorating in the Ménaka and Mopti regions, with an increase in incidents causing population displacements. The resulting deterioration in livelihoods (job losses, theft/looting of assets, etc.) further exposes poor households to food insecurity.
• Poor households in insecure areas of the North, the Liptako Gourma region, and particularly in Ménaka are currently facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to difficulties in accessing food. These outcomes are expected to persist until September 2022. Due to an early lean season caused by premature stock depletion and rising food prices limiting household access to food, poor households in urban centers, Western Sahel, and the Niger River Valley will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes until September 2022.

To learn more, see the Mali Food Security Outlook report for June to January 2023.

Niger

• Food access remains a major challenge for poor households in the country due not only to civil insecurity, which heavily disrupts livelihoods, but also to rising food prices, which reduce household purchasing power.
• The 2022/23 agricultural season is gradually progressing across the country, with planting already completed in 51 percent of the country’s farming villages as of June 20, 2022, compared to 26 percent at the same time in 2021. The start of the agricultural season provides local employment and average income opportunities for poor households. However, rainfall in the pastoral areas of the country has been very low and does not allow for improved pasture conditions.
• Household dependence on markets is starting early and is intensifying in a context of reduced availability and significant increases in food prices. Early reliance on markets is due to the depletion of household stocks from last year's agricultural production, which was below average. Furthermore, trade flows are below average due to restrictive measures taken by certain countries, security crises in the subregion, and the Ukraine crisis, which has disrupted the supply chain for manufactured and imported goods.
• Despite food assistance needs being higher than average, response plans remain weakly implemented due to both security restrictions limiting humanitarian access and concerns related to the Ukraine crisis, which has shifted the focus of humanitarian partners.

To learn more, see the Niger Food Security Outlook for June to January 2023.

Nigeria

• Humanitarian assistance needs in Nigeria are expected to be unusually high during the lean season from June to September 2022, with the greatest concentration of needs in the northeast and northwest. These high needs are primarily due to ongoing conflicts, especially in northern Nigeria, and persistently poor macroeconomic conditions. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are anticipated in inaccessible areas in the northeast, and widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across much of the north at least until September. Although acute food insecurity is expected to improve with the October harvests, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated in some of the conflict-affected northern areas, where exceptionally high assistance needs are likely.
• Overall, a relatively lower number of conflict events were reported in the northeast by mid-2022. While reduced conflict levels have allowed displaced households to return to their areas of origin, these households, along with those who remain displaced, have low assets and face difficulties engaging in typical livelihood activities due to the prolonged nature of the conflict. Many households are participating in the current agricultural season, and although this participation is expected to be above average, households will likely still struggle to plant at pre-conflict levels due to low incomes and asset erosion. Consequently, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected in these northeastern regions until at least January 2023.
• In the northwest and north-central states, banditry, kidnappings, and insecurity remain high. Agricultural households are paying fees to access their farms, and livestock owners continue to face theft. Additionally, communities and traders regularly suffer from robberies. These incidents limit economic and agricultural activities in Sokoto, Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, Benue, and Niger states. The high cost of agricultural inputs further limits labor and participation in the current agricultural season. In the areas most affected by conflict, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely until at least January 2023 due to low agricultural production and reduced purchasing power.
• Food prices remain well above average and last year’s levels due to poor macroeconomic conditions, high fuel costs, above-average market demand, and high global food prices. Annual inflation remains high, at 17.71 percent in May, while the NGN continues to depreciate. Additionally, fuel shortages and high fuel costs are driving up transportation costs. Food prices are expected to continue rising until the start of the harvest in September. At the beginning of the harvest, food prices may decrease somewhat as market demand eases; however, due to poor macroeconomic conditions and high global fuel and food prices, food prices in Nigeria are expected to remain well above average

To learn more, see the Nigeria Food Security Outlook report, June to January 2023.

Chad

• The start of the season in April was followed by dry spells and the appearance of fall armyworm. The prospects for good rainfall are reassuring, suggesting an average production for the main crop season. 
• After conflicts in the Tibesti region at the end of May, new tensions have been reported in the Sudanian zone, pitting farmers against herders, which is delaying the return of transhumant herders to their home areas in the Sahel. Pastoralists are taking advantage of the availability of grazing areas to compensate for poor livestock body conditions due to the atypical pastoral lean period from March to June. 
• The availability of food products is below normal due to the reduced 2021/2022 production and decreased volume of flows. The early exhaustion of household stocks and the low availability of imported products have put unusual pressure on cereal markets. The prices of millet and maize have risen by 46 to 68 percent compared to the five-year average. 
• In addition to the atypical rise in prices, the low incomes of households in the BEG and Kanem regions limit their access to markets, leading to consumption deficits. These households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Despite the decline in food assistance, displaced persons and host households around Lake Chad are in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!), as well as households in other provinces, except for Sila, Salamat, and part of the Sudanian zone, which are expected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

To learn more, see the Chad Food Security Outlook report for June to January 2023.

Remotely Monitored Countries^[1]

Mauritania

• Low purchasing power coupled with an atypical increase in the prices of basic foodstuffs make it difficult for poor and very poor households to access adequate food. Poor and very poor households will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from June to September 2022. In agropastoral, rainfed and Senegal River Valley areas, the normal to early onset of the rainy season in June will regenerate pastures and fill water points in the coming months. From October to January, local products (agricultural and fodder), as well as milk and meat, will be available and will replenish food stocks, however with continued food inflation and low purchasing power, poor and very poor households in these areas will likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity. 
• Markets, the main sources of food for households during this lean season, remain sufficiently supplied with difficult accessibility for poor and very poor households due to the atypical increase in the prices of staple foods, particularly imported ones compared to last year and the five-year average.
• Rainfall for the June to September season is expected to be above average. Land preparation activities for the next plantings are underway in the low-pressure areas of the river valley and rainfed crop areas and constitute opportunities for daily work for poor and very poor households. The low levels of pasture observed during the last three months in most of the country have led to early cross-border transhumance to Mali and Senegal and a massive recourse to livestock feed which is more expensive.

To learn more, see the Mauritania Remote Monitoring Update for June to January 2023..

Central African Republic

• The security situation remains volatile due to the persistence of attacks and abuses that are seriously disrupting market function and access and livelihoods in the western, northwestern, northeastern, and central areas of the country.
• Market supplies of basic food products remain low in areas of insecurity and under armed occupation by rebel groups due to the increasing threats of explosive devices on the roads, in addition to their poor condition, thus impacting availability and prices. The prices of local foodstuffs (maize and cassava) were generally stable in May compared to the same period last year, but those of imported products (rice, white beans, vegetable oil, and beef) continue to increase and remain higher than their levels at the same time last year in all markets.
• In northern, northwestern, southeastern, and central prefectures, poor and very poor households as well as IDPs facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity could shift to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the lean season starting in April/May until September due to the early depletion of stocks and low income levels. Due to the availability of harvests and opportunities for daily work (agricultural and labor), these households will see an improvement in access to food and income from September until January 2023 and will likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity.
• IDPs and host households will continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the lean season until January 2023 in areas more affected by insecurity, and also for poor and very poor populations in areas with limited access. The already precarious food and nutrition situation will persist, given low incomes and their dependence on the market for their food.

To learn more, see the Central African Republic Remote Monitoring Update report for June to January 2023.