Persisting high levels of insecurity in conflict zones

• Water availability in the Gulf of Guinea and the Sudanian-Guinean zones remained favorable in July, just as it was in June. In the Sahelian zone, the moderate to heavy rainfall that affected Burkina Faso, western Mali, and southern Chad in June spread to the rest of the Sahel in July, but with moderate to light intensity. Sowing continued in most of the Sahelian zone, with some crops emerging and even reaching the tilling stage for cereals, although there were pockets of sowing delays ranging from 10 to 30 days. These delays are not currently detrimental to the smooth progress of the season, given the favorable seasonal forecasts. Surface water availability and the emergence of vegetation are supporting livestock feed.
• Persisting insecurity and armed conflicts continue to cause massive population movements in the region, with an increase in the abandonment of fields for security reasons. As of June 25, 2021, 1,896,332 displaced persons were recorded in the central Sahel and the Liptako-Gourma region, with 65 percent in Burkina Faso and 5,245,953 displaced persons in the Lake Chad Basin as of May 21, 2021, with 75 percent in Nigeria (IOM). Livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance movements, and access to basic social services for most of these displaced people are heavily disrupted. Market functioning and access continue to be hindered by ongoing insecurity and conflicts in the Lake Chad Basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, northwestern and central-northern Nigeria, the Tibesti region, and the Northwest and Southwest regions of Cameroon.
• Supplies have continued to decrease seasonally in markets and were below average in several countries. Trade flows remain affected by persistent border restrictions related to COVID-19 and, in some areas, by insecurity. Demand continued to rise and was above average in several countries due to higher stock rebuilding, a longer institutional purchasing period, and significant outflows to the eastern basin, for which some countries have recently banned cereal exports, such as Burkina Faso and Benin. Prices were generally above average in the region, particularly in Nigeria. An atypical industrial demand amid below-average supply further pushed up maize prices. Regional supplies will be sufficient throughout the year, but prices will remain above average in most regions. The prices of small ruminants have increased in several Sahelian markets with the rise in demand for the Tabaski festival in July. Cattle prices will remain low, particularly in Chad and Niger, due to limited exports to Nigeria because of the devaluation of the naira, insecurity along trade corridors, and ongoing COVID-19 restrictions.
• The majority of areas will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until January 2022, with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in certain areas, including many poor urban households that are struggling to recover their usual income levels amid reduced purchasing power. In areas affected by civil insecurity, such as the northern Centre-North region, the provinces of Soum, Séno, Yagha, Komondjari, Lorum, and Yatenga in Burkina Faso, the Diffa region and the far south of the Maradi region in Niger, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will persist until September 2021 in Burkina Faso and January 2022 in Niger, thanks to food assistance.
• The Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes currently affecting the Oudalan province in Burkina Faso will persist until September before evolving into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from October with the harvests. Due to the persistence of conflicts, ongoing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to last until January 2022 in the northern region of Tillabéry and eastern Tahoua region in Niger, the Lake region in Chad, northwest and northeast Nigeria, parts of northwest and southwest Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. From October, Crisis outcomes are expected to spread to other provinces in Burkina Faso, including Soum, Yagha, and northern Lorum. In the east of Mopti in Mali and the extreme north of Cameroon, also affected by conflicts and poor production, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected until September but may slightly improve in October with the new harvests, transitioning to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In Nigeria, ongoing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in the most affected conflict zones in Borno State will persist until January 2022. In this country, food security conditions remain worrying for displaced persons (IDPs) both in the northeast and northwest, where access to food and income is highly limited and humanitarian access is reduced. 

Burkina Faso

• Although the expected rainfall conditions remain favorable for crop development, insecurity will continue to disrupt agricultural activities and lead to a reduction in agricultural production compared to the pre-crisis average, particularly in the Sahel, East, North, and Center-North regions.
• Increased outflows of cereals to neighboring countries and a decrease in imports will put pressure on markets in general, and the prices of staple foods could remain above the seasonal average between June 2021 and January 2022.
• General access to the new harvests from October will help maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes for most households until January 2022. In areas most affected by insecurity and with a high presence of IDPs, the planned food assistance during the lean season will maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the provinces of Sanmatenga, Loroum, Soum, Séno, and Yagha until September.
• In the Oudalan province, where IDPs and host households are more affected by the erosion of their assets, increased begging and food restrictions expose them to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) between June and September. Despite the harvests and an increase in income opportunities from October, significant deficits in livelihood protection and food restrictions will be observed. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes could persist until January 2022.

To learn more, see the Burkina Faso Food Security Outlook report from June 2021 to January 2022.

Cameroon

• The dry harvest, which begins in July, should improve food security conditions for poor households in the northwest and southwest. Despite an anticipated lower-than-average production, households will consume their own-food stocks, and a seasonal increase in crop sales will improve incomes. Food security outcomes are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), except in the departments most affected by conflict, where production and access to food assistance remain very low. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to start appearing in October, as premature depletion of food stocks begins to drive up the prices of staple foods.
• COVID-19 prevention measures continue to limit daily income opportunities for poor urban households. COVID-19-related supply disruptions keep the prices of key staple foods above average. COVID-19 vaccination campaigns are underway across the country, but the impact of the pandemic is expected to continue into 2021 and 2022.
• In the departments most affected by insurgent activities in the Extreme North, below-average livestock herds are reducing income from livestock sales, and localized below-average 2020/21 production is keeping staple food prices above the average. To meet their food needs, households in Mayo Sava, Mayo Tsanaga, and Logone et Chari are increasingly borrowing, reducing meal sizes and frequency, purchasing cheaper substitute foods, and selling firewood and charcoal. They will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until August.

To learn more, see the Cameroon Food Security Outlook report for June 2021 to January 2022.

Mali

• The new agricultural season has started in the country with the onset of rains in June. Forecasts for normal to above-average rainfall, along with support from the government and partners, indicate a cereal production that is expected to be average to above average. The production forecast shows a 10.4% increase compared to the 2020/2021 season and an 18.5% increase compared to the five-year average (National Directorate of Agriculture), which should support a good supply of cereals on the markets.
• The supply of foodstuffs on the markets remains satisfactory overall. Cereal prices are similar to or slightly above average, and the livestock-to-cereal terms of trade are average to above average, which is favorable for households' access to food.
• The combined impact of the security crisis and COVID-19 continues to negatively affect the country’s economic activities, although there has been an improvement in the COVID-19 situation, with fewer new positive cases and a relaxation of containment measures. The resulting income decline has increased the vulnerability of households, particularly in urban centers.
• Crisis-level (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity is ongoing and will continue until September for poor households in the Liptako-Gourma region, displaced poor households, and victims of the July to August 2021 floods, due to their inability to meet their food needs without resorting to negative coping strategies. Food insecurity is expected to improve from October through January 2022, thanks to the availability of harvests and the seasonal decrease in the prices of staple cereals. As a result, these populations will experience Stressed  (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

To learn more, see the Mali Food Security Outlook report for June 2021 to January 2022. 

Niger

• Markets are supplied with staple food items, but at a lower intensity than usual. The price increases observed in major markets since October 2020 continue at a level currently above the seasonal average and could persist with greater intensity during the peak of the lean season.
• Sowing has been completed in 26 percent of agricultural and agropastoral villages in the country as of June 20, 2021, compared to an average of 64 percent of villages. However, the anticipated production starting in October is expected to be average, supported by average to above-average cumulative rainfall.
• The pastoral zone is in the peak of the lean season, but the anomalies currently observed are generally comparable to those of a normal situation. However, atypical situations are being observed in pastoral areas affected by insecurity, including reduced mobility of herds, a high concentration in secure areas, and livestock theft.
• Insecurity continues to hinder the typical functioning of livelihoods and markets, causing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the Tillabéry and northern Tahoua regions, where humanitarian space is limited due to security measures and the threat of terrorist attacks. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist in Diffa and Maradi, thanks to the food assistance that will be provided throughout the projection period.

To learn more, see the Food Security Outlook report for Niger for June 2021 to January 2022.

Nigeria

• High levels of conflict in the northeast are leading to limited engagement in agricultural activities, reduced humanitarian access, and displacement, with many populations being displaced multiple times. This, along with significantly above -average food prices, is limiting household purchasing power and access to food. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are widespread in much of the northeast. The harvest is expected to somewhat improve outcomes in certain areas of the region for a short period; however, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist throughout the scenario period in hard-to-reach areas.
• There is a risk of famine (IPC Phase 5) in hard-to-reach areas of the northeast. Although this is not FEWS NET's most likely scenario, famine could occur in a worst-case situation if there is an increase or dramatic shift in conflict that limits access to typical sources of food, income, and humanitarian aid over a prolonged period. While humanitarian access has declined in recent months with increased conflict and ongoing displacement, many households in hard-to-reach areas are experiencing significant food consumption deficits, indicating high levels of acute malnutrition and excess mortality. As these populations face severe challenges in meeting their food needs and are expected to engage minimally in the current agricultural season, the risk of famine persists until at least January 2022.
• Based on available evidence, it is likely that some populations in conflict-affected areas of the northwest are experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) conditions. These areas are of increasing concern as conflict disrupts household engagement in typical livelihood activities and high levels of displacement. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), more than 690,000 people have been displaced in the northwest and north-central regions of the country. Few humanitarian actors are operating in this area to provide necessary aid to those facing food consumption deficits. Additionally, due to high levels of displacement and continued disruption of livelihood activities, the harvest is expected to be significantly affected for many households, limiting typical seasonal improvements.
• The 2021 agricultural season is underway across the country. Farmers are engaged in land preparation and planting in the northern regions and weeding in the central and southern regions. However, high input costs for items such as improved seeds, herbicides, and fertilizers, combined with insecurity, are limiting the level of cultivation, which is below average to date. Households engaged in agricultural labor are earning below-average wages due to increased competition from the oversupply of labor, which limits income earned. For market-dependent households, this restricts access to both food and non-food products.

To learn more, see the Nigeria Food Security Outlook report for June 2021 to January 2022. 

Chad

• The agropastoral season began in the Sudanian zone with the first rains in mid-May. However, six- to eight-day dry spells are causing water stress on crops from the initial sowings. In the Lac region, soil preparation activities are being observed in lowland areas in anticipation of the rains to carry out the first plantings.
• Despite a relative improvement in the COVID-19 health situation, with eight patients under treatment as of June 28, 2021, the measures continue to impact the livelihoods of very poor and poor households, particularly affecting income from remittances and seasonal migration.
• Market supply continues at its seasonal pace, except for markets in the Western Sahel (BEG, Kanem, and Lac), where transporters are hesitant due to recent security disruptions in the area. Most markets show below-average price trends due to low household incomes limiting demand, although prices are experiencing a seasonal increase due to stock depletion.
• The persistence of insecurity in the Lac region continues to affect household livelihoods. Following stock depletion, very poor households and some displaced populations cannot meet their consumption needs without resorting to negative coping strategies and are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Given the low incomes of households in BEG, Kanem, Borkou, and Tibesti, food access is limited amid a seasonal price increase in some cereal markets. They have minimally adequate food consumption but cannot meet certain non-food expenses without engaging in stressed coping strategies. Households in these areas face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Other provinces are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.

To learn more, see the Chad Food Security Outlook for June 2021 to January 2022.

Remotely Monitored Countries^[1]

Mauritania

• Market supply of food items continues to decrease during this period, with a seasonal reduction in flows from Mali and Senegal to domestic consumption markets. Given the deteriorating health situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic since mid-May, there has been a strengthening of restrictive measures, including an extension of the curfew period. This has slowed supply flows, particularly for the agropastoral and rainfed zones. However, the resumption of economic activities in Nouakchott and Nouadhibou is helping to ensure an acceptable level of food availability in urban markets.
• As in all years, pastoral resources remain inadequate during this period, marked by a seasonal scarcity of pasture in transhumance areas, particularly in the western agropastoral zone and in the northern parts of the country. Typical transhumance movements from deficit areas in the north to the southern areas in search of pasture continue. Additionally, typical movements towards Senegal, Mali, and Guinea continue, with a gradual return expected to begin between July and August as pastures regenerate and watering points are refilled in the respective homelands of herders. Furthermore, demand for livestock feed remains average to above average and may gradually increase, peaking in July with the optimal start of the agricultural season. Finally, this demand will decrease with the regeneration of the herbaceous cover and the availability of watering points beneficial for livestock.
• The depletion of household food stocks and the reduction in purchasing power among poor households due to the residual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in decreased income from remittances and the informal sector, will limit access to adequate and sufficient food for poor households until September 2021. Despite the expected improvement in pastoral conditions due to the onset of the rainy season, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will generally be observed in rainfed, agropastoral, and peripheral urban areas.
• Between October 2021 and January 2022, harvest prospects from the upcoming agricultural season are expected to substantially improve food consumption conditions and livelihoods in the agropastoral (MR07), rainfed (MR09), and Senegal River Valley zones. The cold off-season campaign for rice and market gardening, usually starting in November, will provide households in these areas with access to agricultural work, thus improving their income levels. In addition, pastoral conditions will improve with the availability of forage resources and watering points, supporting an improvement in animal body condition and milk production. As a result, poor households in the pastoral, agropastoral, rainfed, and valley areas will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes during this period.

To learn more, see the Mauritania Remote Monitoring Update report for June 2021 to January 2022.

Central African Republic

• The security situation in the country remains precarious, particularly in the north, southeast, and northeast. The number of IDPs remains high despite some returns thanks to a relative calm. Their livelihoods are heavily disrupted, exposing them to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity. In the coming months (July–August), which corresponds to the peak of the lean season, access to food and income will become even more challenging for them.
• Market supply across most of the country is at a moderate level. However, the supply of imported goods is below the pre-crisis level of December 2020. The number of weekly supply convoys for the Central African Republic through the Cameroon-Bangui corridor has dropped by nearly 60 percent.
• Overall, prices for local foodstuffs (maize and cassava) are generally stable in June compared to the previous month. Compared to last year, prices are generally higher. However, they have decreased in Bangui, Kaga-Bandoro, Obo, Paoua, and Bambari due to a relatively good availability of these products in these markets.

To learn more, see the Central African Republic Remote Monitoring Update report for June 2021 to January 2022.