Localized food insecurity due to lower production and income levels, as well as civil insecurity

• Projected 2014/2015 cereal production in West Africa will be around 60,600,000 metric tons, up 7 percent from 2013/2014 and 10 percent higher than the average. These high production levels will improve household food availability and provide normal market supplies for the majority of the region.

• However, significantly lower crop and/or pasture production levels have been observed in localized areas of Mauritania, Senegal, Chad, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso. The likely deterioration in livestock body conditions beginning in March/April and low income levels will expose poor households in Burkina Faso, Mali, Senegal, and Chad to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity and those in Mauritania to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity beginning in March. During the next several months, the number of food insecure households will likely rise.

• Civil insecurity in northeast Nigeria and the Central African Republic is continuing to restrict trade and is displacing local populations to neighboring cities, states, and countries. This in turn is negatively impacting household livelihoods. Currently observed Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity will persist through June in the areas most affected by conflict. Refugees and returnees will continue to depend on humanitarian assistance.

• In the areas most affected by the Ebola epidemic, market functioning and trade will improve slowly as official movement restrictions are lifted. However, household incomes from many typical sources remain below average, considerably reducing purchasing power and limiting food access for poor households reliant on market purchases to meet their food needs. As food stocks from recent harvests deplete in the coming months, the population facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes is expected to increase.

Burkina Faso             

• Faced with the early exhaustion of food stocks, a spike in staple food prices, and a decline in income, which comes mainly from livestock-rearing, poor households in the communes of Tin-Akoff, Nassoumbou, and Koutougou in the extreme north of the country are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity.
• With below-average production levels made worse by a particularly difficult pastoral situation for the second season in a row and the continued deterioration in livestock-for-cereal terms-of-trade, the lean season for poor households in other communes in the Sahel region and its surroundings will last two months longer than normal, beginning in March.
• In the rest of the country, where the lean season will be normal, normal market functioning will keep staple food prices in line with seasonal trends, with prices similar to the five-year average. Agricultural activities and a normal start to the rainy season in May/June will help contribute to this situation.

To learn more, see the complete January through June 2015 Food Security Outlook for Burkina Faso.

Chad

• Despite above-average harvests in most agricultural areas, there are reports of cereal production was five to 76 percent below average in Kanem, Sila, Tandjilé, Wadi Fira, Mayo Kebbi Ouest, Moyen Chari, Lac, and Mayo Kebbi Regions, with the Kanem (-76 percent), Sila (-50 percent), and Tandjilé (-27 percent) regions posting the largest decreases.
• Food markets in all livelihood zones are active and functioning normally. In general, cereal prices are down from the last quarter of 2014, which is improving cereal access. Insecurity in Nigeria and Libya has slowed the flow of livestock trade to those countries, triggering an atypical decline in prices.
• Despite the improvement in the food security situation of poor households in the last three months of 2014 with the harvesting of fresh crops, below-average cereal production in certain areas result in an early exhaustion of household stocks. Households will be dependent on market purchase to meet their food consumption needs, while cutting certain essential nonfood expenses.
• Poor households will be market-dependent between January and March and their food consumption will be reduced. As a result, food security for these households will deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). With the help of food assistance programs, they will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food insecurity between April and June.

To learn more, see the complete January through June 2015 Food Security Outlook for Chad.

Mali

• The cereal balance sheet for 2014/2015 presented by the Rural Development Planning and Statistics Unit (Cellule de planification et des statistiques du secteur de développement rural-CPS/SDR) shows a 1,775,696 metric tons surplus at the national level. Cereal production is 11 percent above the five-year national average, providing the country with an adequate cereal supply. However, riverine areas of Gao and Timbuktu, lake areas of Goundam, the Haoussa area of Niafunké, and the northern Youwarou and Kayes areas have large production shortfalls.
• With the good food availability from recent harvests and cereal prices close to or slightly above average, poor households in agropastoral and pastoral areas have average food access to meet their food needs. Thus, households across the country could experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity between January and February 2015.
• The food stocks of very poor and poor households in riverine areas of Gao and Bourem, lake areas of Goundam, the Haoussa area of Niafunké, and the northern Youwarou area affected by the poor crop yields in these areas will be depleted earlier than usual, making them dependent on borrowing and low-cost foods to meet their food needs earlier than normal. These households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes as of March 2015.
• The food security situation is expected to deteriorate into a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by July, with poor households in riverine areas of Gao and Bourem departments, lake areas of Goundam department, the Haoussa area of Niafunké, and Youwarou facing difficulty meeting their food needs.

To learn more, see the complete January through June 2015 Food Security Outlook for Mali.

Mauritania

• The failure of flood-recession crops in the northern and western reaches of the Agropastoral Zone has further aggravated shortfalls in harvest production and associated seasonal incomes. Pastoralists have increased their sales of animals, with the resulting surplus triggering an atypical seasonal decline in livestock prices. Poor households will have more difficulty meeting their food needs and, thus, will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and June.
• With the limited farming activities in walo areas in central areas of the Senegal River Valley after the failure of rainfed crops, the lean season in farming areas will begin earlier than usual despite the small harvests of irrigated main season crops. As in the northwestern reaches of the Agropastoral Zone, households in this area will have trouble meeting their food and livelihood protection needs, which will put them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as of March.
• Though Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions are expected in the south-central part of the country and even in the Oasis and Wadis Zone, other livelihood zones are currently experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. Average seasonal incomes, the availability of rainfed and irrigated crops, and/or the improvement in pastoral conditions should allow the food security situation to remain more or less in line with seasonal norms through the end of June 2015.

To learn more, see the complete January through June 2015 Food Security Outlook for Mauritania.

Niger

• With the majority of households not experiencing significant issues accessing cereals, the food security situation was better in January 2015 than in 2014. It is expected to remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity in most parts of the country from February through June 2015.
• The most concerning acute food insecurity situation is in the Diffa region, where poor households in northern areas will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) beginning in April due to declining pastoral incomes and low cereal supplies leading to high prices on markets.
• The Diffa region also needs assistance for the estimated 150,000 to 200,000 refugees and returnees fleeing insecurity in northeast Nigeria. Assistance currently available in the southern part of the Diffa region will help maintain acute food insecurity in the area at a level of Stress! (IPC Phase 2!) until June 2015.
• With the approach of the lean season, which this year will coincide with the early depletion of cereal and forage stocks in areas with rainfall shortages, food insecurity could increase. This will particularly be the case beginning in May-June, with cereal prices rising higher than the purchasing power of poor households in agropastoral zones of northern Tillabéri, pastoral zones of northern Tahoua, and farming/pastoral zones of eastern Zinder.

To learn more, see the complete January through June 2015 Food Security Outlook for Niger.

Nigeria

• Conflict-affected households in northeastern Nigeria continue to experience difficulty in meeting their essential food and nonfood needs. Main and dry season cultivation is significantly impacted and households are not able to off-set their low harvests through market purchase. Areas worst affected by conflict will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least June.
• Many households in the conflict affected northeast have fled their homes and are in urban centers in the northeast, in neighboring states, or have fled to neighboring countries. The number of IDPs in Nigeria is expected to continue to increase as conflict persists across the region.
• At the national level, though, the main 2014 harvest is expected to have been average to above average, contributing to increased food availability and access. With most households also earning typical seasonal incomes and market purchase prices for key staples relatively average to below-average, most of the country is expected to be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least June.

To learn more, see the complete January through June Food Security Outlook for Nigeria.

Remote monitoring countries¹

Central African Republic

• According to OCHA, continued violence has expanded the size of the internally displaced population, which has grown from 430,000 people in early December 2014 to 440,000 people as of mid-January 2015.
• Displaced households whose livelihoods have been seriously disrupted will face the most severe food security outcomes. Most displaced populations will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity through the end of June, with a small group of households expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the absence of emergency humanitarian assistance.
• With the shortfall in food production, reduced household incomes, and the added needs of IDPs, poor resident households no longer have adequate available food stocks to meet their food needs. These poor households have been facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity in January 2015 with additional households declining into this phase by May/June 2015.

To learn more, see the complete January through June 2015 Food Security Outlook for the Central African Republic.

Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone

• Market functioning and trade flows are still below-normal but are slowly improving across the region compared to previous months due to the lifting of official movement restrictions (Liberia), district-level quarantines (Sierra Leone), and official border closures (across the region, except for Liberia).
• Despite improving market functioning, household incomes from many typical sources remain below average, causing household purchasing power to remain atypically weak and limiting food access for poor households reliant on market purchases to meet basic needs. As food stocks from recent harvests deplete, the population facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes is expected to increase in the coming months.

To learn more, see the complete January 2015 Remote Monitoring Report for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

Senegal

• The 37 percent shortfall in cereal production compared to average is limiting the availability of local cereal crops, particularly in northern and western areas and the groundnut basin. The 51 percent below-average harvest of groundnuts, the country’s main cash crop, and resulting reduction in farm income are weakening household purchasing power.
• The early depletion of food stocks by March instead of June, is prolonging the market dependence of poor households more than usual and making it difficult for them to meet their food needs. Even with great than normal levels of borrowing and cutbacks in non-food spending, affected households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of acute food insecurity between March and April and will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) beginning later in May.
• The pasture deficit in the northern and central reaches of the country will negatively affect animal production and, by extension, the purchasing power of pastoral households. Livestock will be at a high risk of mortality beginning in April, which will hurt the livelihoods of pastoral and agropastoral households.

To learn more, see the complete January 2015 Remote Monitoring Report for Senegal.

¹ With remote monitoring, an analyst typically works from a nearby regional office, relying on a network of partners for data. Compared to the previous series of countries in which FEWS NET has a local office, reporting on remote monitoring countries may offer less detail.

Table 1: Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario