Continued high levels of food insecurity, particularly in conflict zones

• The March 2023 Prevention and Management of Food Crises (PREGEC) meeting estimates final cereal production for 2022/23 in the Sahel and West Africa at 77 million tonnes, an increase of 8 percent compared to the previous season and 6 percent compared to the five-year average. In all Sahelian countries, production is higher than the two reference periods mentioned above, except in Chad, where it is slightly down by 1 percent on the five-year average. The season is continuing in several areas of the Sahelian strip, with good availability of market garden produce in rural and urban markets. In the countries of the Gulf of Guinea, the end of February and beginning of March are marked by the start of the rainy season in the bimodal zone, with low rainfall observed in certain areas of Nigeria and Cameroon. According to the 2023  seasonal forecasts drawn up by the regional (AGRHYMET, ACMAD) and national centers for the countries of the Gulf of Guinea, rainfall amounts are expected to be generally average between March and June, with a normal start, a normal to late end, medium to short dry sequences, and generally average to surplus runoff in the coastal basins. The overall forecasts currently available from NOAA for the Sahel suggest normal to above-normal 2023 rainfall. These rainfall conditions are favorable for an average or above-average 2023/2024 agricultural season. 

• On the pastoral front, livestock conditions remain generally satisfactory thanks to the availability of fodder and water resources. In Niger, however, the pastoral zone recorded poor fodder production due to interrupted rains at the end of August and during September. In addition, persistent insecurity in the Lake Chad, Liptako-Gourma, Far North Cameroon, North-West Nigeria, and Tibesti regions of Chad has made certain pastoral areas inaccessible to livestock breeders. This situation could lead to premature degradation of resources in areas where herds are concentrated, particularly along the Niger River in Mali and in southern Niger, which are better supplied with pasture consisting of agricultural residues and fodder in pastoral enclaves.

• Grain prices remained stable in February 2023 compared with the previous month. However, early price rises were recorded in Chad due to reduced supplies, while price increases continued in markets in Liptako-Gourma due to insecurity. In addition, the shortage of new naira bills led to a reduction in trading activity in Nigeria. Overall, prices remain above the five-year average in the region. These high price levels are mainly due to low carryover stocks, restrictions on cereal exports in some countries, high transportation costs, and insecurity in the Sahel; in the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea, they reflect strong demand, high prices on the international market, high production costs, and falling exchange rates. Prices are expected to remain above average until the end of the marketing year.

• The majority of areas will continue facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until September 2023. In areas affected by civil insecurity, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are underway and will persist until September 2023, notably in the provines of Kossi, Sourou, Séno, Yatenga, Bam, northern Namentenga, Komondjari, and Gourma in Burkina Faso, the northern and western regions of Tahoua and Tillabéry in Niger, the regions of Kanem, Bar el Gazel, and northern Guera in Chad, the Ménaka region, southern Gao, Mopti, and Timbuktu in Mali, Borno State, parts of Yobe, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Niger, and Kaduna in Nigeria, and in the far north of Cameroon. From June to September, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will spread to other provinces in Burkina Faso (Sanmatenga, Gnagna, Tapoa, Kompienga), to the Lake region of Chad, and to other LGAs in the above-mentioned states of Nigeria. In the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will improve slightly from June/July onwards, thanks to new harvests, which will enable households to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

• The Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes currently observed in the provinces of Loroum, Soum, Oudalan, and Yagha in Burkina Faso will persist until September 2023. In the commune of Djibo, where IDPs and host households are experiencing a prolonged situation of Emergency (IPC Phase 4), some populations will be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) throughout the period. From June to September, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely in the inaccessible LGAs of Nigeria's North-East and North-West states, where households are expected to have limited food stocks and limited access to markets and humanitarian aid.

Burkina Faso

• Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to continue to spread in the Sahel and northern regions, where armed groups are limiting household access to typical sources of food, income, and humanitarian aid. In blockaded areas, constraints on population movements and commercial and humanitarian access have led to food shortages, eroded livelihoods, and reduced household resilience. Many households are resorting to begging and wild food consumption, and there are likely to be households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) with extreme food consumption deficits. The area of greatest concern is the commune of Djibo, in the Soum province, which has been under blockade for the past year. In Djibo, households are more frequently going days and nights without food, leading to visible signs of emaciation and reports of hunger-related deaths.
• Currently, at least 10 communes are under blockade in the North, Sahel, and East regions. The increase in the number of localities under blockade has led to a greater demand for military escorts to supply the markets, but logistical constraints mean longer lead times between deliveries. In Djibo, the last market supply took place at the end of November. What's more, humanitarian aid workers can only reach blockaded areas by helicopter, and the low levels of assistance are insufficient to alleviate the severity of consumption deficits among the population. Due to the absence of a functioning market and food shortages, prices of staple foods have reached record levels, particularly in Djibo, Arbinda, Titao, Sebba, and in the communes of northern Oudalan.
• The supply of cereals in the country's markets remains average to below average due to localized production shortfalls and insecurity along supply routes. Despite the current ban on cereal and cowpea exports, prices in January recorded moderate increases of between 30 and 40 percent compared with last year, and atypical rises of over 75 percent compared with the five-year average. These price levels are likely to continue to evolve above their seasonal averages between February and September, negatively affecting food access for the poor, especially in areas with a high presence of IDPs and in urban centers.
• Although not the most likely scenario, FEWS NET assesses that there is a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in the commune of Djibo, where IDPs and host households are experiencing a prolonged situation of Emergency (IPC Phase 4). If armed groups were to intensify their attacks, this would further restrict the population's movements, notably their ability to engage in market gardening, wild food gathering, and agricultural activities during the rainy season. In addition, market supplies and humanitarian aid are likely to become even more irregular and inadequate than currently anticipated. Should these conditions materialize, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is likely to occur. It is urgent to considerably increase the number of air deliveries of humanitarian aid, to take measures to guarantee full humanitarian access, and to end the Djibo blockade to put an end to the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5).

For more information, see the Burkina Faso Food Security Outlook from February to September 2023.

Cameroon

• Pump prices across the country have risen for the first time since the start of the Ukrainian crisis, with a liter of premium gasoline selling for 16 percent more since February 1, 2023, and diesel selling for 25 percent more. The government is considering parallel measures such as maintaining kerosene and cooking gas prices and increasing the pay of state employees by an average of 5.2 percent to protect the purchasing power of vulnerable households. However, the recent increase in fuel prices is already leading to a corresponding rise in other costs, particularly in the transport sector, with negative impacts on poor rural, poor urban, and internally displaced households, who already spend a large proportion of their income on food.
• General inflation in Cameroon remains high, close to 6.3 percent in 2022 According to FEWS NET price monitoring data collected in selected markets across the country, prices of imported and processed staple foods continue to rise moderately to significantly above the five-year average and 2022 given continued below-average domestic supply resulting from high global price trends and shipping costs due to the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine.
• Prices for locally produced cereals such as maize, sorghum, and millet are also on the rise, following the typical seasonal trend as the lean season approaches. Prices remain well above average in conflict-affected areas, due to consecutive seasons of below-average harvests and low carryover stocks. Cereal prices remained exceptionally high until February 2023 on all markets monitored by FEWS NET in the Far North region, supported by strong production and export demand. This situation is exacerbated by insecurity and further supply disruptions. Sorghum and maize prices have risen month-on-month through 2022, and in January 2023 were respectively 20 to 26 percent above the 2022 average and 50 to 60 percent above the five-year average. 
• Overall, high inflation continues to limit household purchasing power and access to food, particularly among the urban poor and those affected by conflict and insecurity. These households rely mainly on market purchases due to the absence of harvests, or on stocks already depleted by their own limited harvests. In the major cities of Yaoundé and Douala, poor urban households report reducing the number of meals and food portions, depleting their previous savings, or going into debt to survive, leading to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.
• Declining incomes continue to constrain the purchasing power of households affected by conflict and flooding in the North-West, South-West, and Far North regions. Together with growing market dependency and high food prices, this is causing food consumption gaps and necessitating negative coping strategies. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist until June, with assistance needs peaking around May/June. Improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is likely around July/August in the North-West and South-West regions, due to improved household food consumption and income from the availability of their own harvests. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist until September among insurgency-affected households in the Far North region, despite the start of the main harvests.

For more information, see the Outlook for Food Security in Cameroon from February to September 202.3.

 Niger

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity persists in the pastoral, agropastoral, and agricultural zones of Tillabéry and Tahoua, where opportunities for accessing income are reduced and the majority of households have exhausted their stocks and have no access to food assistance following ongoing terrorist attacks in these areas. A similar situation can be observed in the Diffa region and in the southwestern part of the Maradi region, where poor households face Stressed! (IPC Phase 2 !) outcomes, given that the security of access routes make it possible to distribute food assistance to the population.
• Cereal harvests in 2022, estimated at 5.8 million tonnes overall, nearly 66 percent higher than in 2021 and around 10 percent higher than the five-year average, are improving food availability. Added to this are the ongoing harvests of off-season crops, which not only provide adequate food access across the country, but also offered agricultural labor opportunities to poor households in February 2023. However, current levels of household grain stocks are low, following the repayment of debts incurred to meet last year's huge food needs.
• In the pastoral zone, forage production is 19 percent higher than in 2021, and 5 percent lower than the five-year average. Forage availability is more than 40 percent below feed requirements, leading to an early depletion of pasture availability and an early descent of herds into the southern agricultural zone in January 2023 to take advantage of the good availability of crop residues and watering points. The overall condition of the animals is still average, and income from the sale of animals, including small ruminants, enables poor households to buy larger-than-average quantities of food.
• Markets are well supplied with basic foodstuffs, with local supplies dominating flows for millet and cash crops. Flows from neighboring countries (Benin, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso) dominate for maize and sorghum, but those from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Nigeria are irregular due to continuing restrictions on cereal outflows in Burkina Faso and the effects of changes in Naira banknotes in Nigeria. Consumer prices remain on an upward trend compared with last year, and even higher than the five-year average.

To find out more, see Niger's Food Security Outlook from February to September 2023.

Nigeria

• Food security outcomes for millions of households are set to deteriorate over the coming months, with the lean season expected to start as early as April in conflict-affected areas of northern Nigeria. Food aid needs will peak in Nigeria at the height of the lean season, from June to September. During this period, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to be widespread in the most conflict-affected areas of northeast, northwest, and north-central states, as households rely on food purchases in a context of soaring food prices and below-average incomes. In northeastern regions, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely in inaccessible LGAs, where households are likely to have limited food stocks and limited access to markets and humanitarian aid.
• In the northeast, the conflict continues to be concentrated in Borno State, where there has been an increase in the use of civilians as informers, leading to increased restrictions on population movements and the abduction and murder of civilians. This has eroded the ability of households to engage in their typical livelihood activities to earn income for food purchases. Crisis (IPC phase 3) outcomes are expected to extend into the northeast during the main season harvest in October 2023. Emergency (IPC phase 4) outcomes are expected to appear in May or June in the LGAs of Abadam, Bama, Guzamala, and Marte, where high levels of acute malnutrition are expected.
• In the northwestern and north-central states, insecurity and conflict increased throughout 2022 and into 2023. Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, Sokoto, Niger, Plateau, and Benue states remain the hardest hit, experiencing widespread displacement to urban areas. Households in the most conflict-affected areas have limited food stocks and depend on minimal income to buy food. With food prices already abnormally high and expected to rise, and households continuing to have limited access to income, many will have to supplement their food consumption with available wild foods. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected at least until September in areas where displacement and conflict are highest. Some households in rural areas are likely to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes until September, as they have no access to markets, very limited access to livelihoods, and restricted movement.
• Macroeconomic conditions remain extremely poor in Nigeria due to a combination of new economic policies and complications associated with the recasting of the Nigerian naira (NGN), including foreign exchange shortages, low government revenues from below-average crude oil production, and declining foreign exchange reserves. These trends contribute to above-average domestic food, fuel, and transportation costs. Against a backdrop of high global commodity prices, this has pushed headline inflation to a record high since 2005 of 21.9 percent in February, strongly driven by food inflation, which reached 24.4 percent in February.

To find out more, see Nigeria's Food Security Outlook from February to September 2023.

Chad

• Atypical price rises were observed in most cereal markets compared with the five-year average. Sorghum prices remain around 50 percent above the national average due to atypical pressure on cereal markets caused by low stock levels in very poor and poor households, declines in food inflows, and high transportation costs. 
• An erosion of most sources of income has been observed in many localities following the drop in cereal production in 2022/23 compared with the five-year average in the Sudanian zone and the scarcity of seasonal employment opportunities. Household incomes in the Sahelian zone, derived mainly from migration, handicrafts, non-agricultural labor, and gold panning in Tibesti, are below normal levels due to inaccessibility to income-generating activities. 
• At Le Lac, persistent insecurity and the effects of flooding are accentuating the deterioration in the livelihoods of displaced and host households. Households' food consumption is severely impacted, and they are resorting to negative coping strategies to meet their essential non-food needs. In the Western Sahel (BEG and Kanem), poor households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to limited access to food markets due to high prices coupled with the erosion of their main sources of income (handicrafts, self-employment, and migration). Households in the rice-growing basin, the central Sahel, and the Sahara are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with minimally adequate food consumption and cannot afford certain basic non-food expenses without engaging in coping strategies. In Salamat and the southeastern provinces of the country, currently ongoing off-season harvests will bolster households' low stocks, and these households will continue facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until the onset of the rainy season. 

For more information, see the Chad Food Security Outlook from February to September 2023.

Countries monitored remotely^[1]

Mauritania 

• During the post-harvest period, most rural households in the agricultural and agropastoral zones still have sufficient stocks to cover their needs, maintaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However, poor households in urban areas and the north-central agropastoral zone, whose incomes are below average due to the difficult economic environment and who are facing soaring prices, are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes that will persist until September 2023.
• In February, market supplies of imported foodstuffs such as sugar, rice, milk, oil, and pasta were mostly average, remaining relatively stable compared with January. However, wheat availability is down due to supply difficulties on the international market. Nevertheless, prices remain on an upward trend, linked to high global prices. In the Nouakchott market, for example, prices for basic foodstuffs are up by more than 60 percent compared with the same period in 2022. 
• In addition, local merchant stocks of sorghum, millet, and maize, most of which come from Mali and Senegal, are at their lowest level for the last three years, according to the market players met during the joint market mission in February 2023. This situation is attributable to the insecurity in Mali, which prevents Mauritanian traders from going there. Faced with strong demand, cereal prices have soared. At the Boghé market, for example, the retail price of a 50 kg bag of sorghum has risen by over 35 percent compared with last year.

To find out more, see the February to September 2023 update on remote monitoring in Mauritania.

Central African Republic

• Households in the far north of the country, particularly in the Vakaga and Ouham prefectures that were affected by last winter's floods, have lost almost all their production and assets. Given their limited access to food and income, these households are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. The eastern regions of the country are also facing Crisis outcomes due to atrocities committed by armed groups against the local population, preventing them from going about their business and accessing their typical sources of income and food.
• In the southwest and central zones, where a relative lull is preserving security, we are seeing generally average to above-average production for the 2022/2023 agricultural season, thanks to favorable rainfall. Despite adequate food stocks, households in these areas face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes because their livelihoods remain deeply weakened by a decade of conflict.
• The climate of insecurity resulting from the persistent presence of armed groups across the country since 2013 perpetuates the negative impacts on already precarious livelihoods and unreliable access to food for thousands of affected households, IDPs, and refugees. Despite a general downward trend in the number of incidents and fatalities in the country from November 2021 to January 2023, according to ACLED, the situation remains unstable in some places. In the nortwest, the Central African Armed Forces have been facing an upsurge in attacks by armed groups since mid-December 2022.
• Since the beginning of 2023, the end of government subsidies on the sale of hydrocarbons has pushed up the price of petroleum products, immediately increasing transportation costs and the price of imported foodstuffs. The government sought to regulate transportation costs, agreeing to an average increase of 50 percent. However, poor households in urban areas will have limited access to adequate food, as they are essentially dependent on the market for their food and sources of income from the informal sector, including petty trade, non-agricultural labor, and handicraft activities.

To find out more, see the February to September 2023 update on remote monitoring of the Central African Republic.

Events That Could Change the Scenarios

Citation recommandée : FEWS NET. West Africa Food Security Outlook, February to September 2023: Continued high levels of food insecurity, particularly in conflict zones, 2023