Key Message Update

Concerning levels of food insecurity in conflict zones and certain pastoral areas

February 2016

February - May 2016

West Africa, Food Security, February to May 2016

June - September 2016

West Africa, Food Security, June to September 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Final 2015/16 estimates indicate that regional cereal production was above average. This, along with normal trade flows, is assuring satisfactory supply levels of local foods on regional markets. Exceptions, however, are certain areas of Chad where rainfed and dry season harvests were below average and certain areas where civil insecurity continues to disrupt trade flows.

  • Good crop production, along with regular imports and average carry-over stocks in the Central Basin, is maintaining average cereal supplies while demand is at below-average levels. As a result, prices are either stable or down compared to average. However prices are above average in certain localized areas, such as those affected by civil insecurity, below-average crop production (Ghana) or increased maize demand from the poultry industry (Togo). In Ghana, the situation is amplified by the continued depreciation of the local currency. 

  • In Nigeria, the value of the Naira has depreciated by more than 30 percent between December 2015 and February 2016, due primarily to reduced revenues from the oil sector in 2015. This depreciation has reduced the purchasing power of consumers in Nigeria for imported products from international markets (ex. rice, wheat and manufactured goods) and for livestock and cash crops from the Sahel. This monetary crisis could contribute to reduced trade flows towards Nigeria and lower livestock prices in the Sahel. 

  • Due to normal livelihoods and favorable food availability, prices, and livestock-to-cereal terms of trade, the majority of households will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity until September. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes have already been observed in certain pastoral zones of Niger and Mali and agropastoral zones of Mauritania due to 1) below-average pastoral conditions and/or harvests (rainfed and flood recession) or 2) excessive livestock deaths in 2015 that reduced poor households’ herd sizes. This Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity will continue until September despite improving food consumption beginning in August. 

  • Despite a slight improvement in security conditions, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will persist until September in northeastern Nigeria, as well as in neighboring areas of Lake Chad, due to the continued negative impacts of civil insecurity on trade flows and household livelihoods. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics