Despite some modest monthly declines or stagnation, staple food prices remain well above the five-year average

In August, rainfall was light to moderate over the eastern Sahel (eastern Niger and central Chad) and the pastoral belt (from southern Mauritania/northern Senegal to central Chad). Moderate to heavy rains were recorded in the Sahel agricultural belt, and heavy rains in the Sudanian zone, including the northern Gulf of Guinea countries. Weeding is almost complete, and crops are continuing to develop normally. However, the heavy rains recorded locally in August led to flooding in Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria and Chad, with damage to infrastructure including roads, to fields along watercourses, destruction of stocks and loss of human life. The forecast of normal rains in August and light rainfall in September in the northern Sahel countries (Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad) is conducive to small-scale Desert Locust breeding.

Livelihood conditions continue to deteriorate in the Lake Chad Basin, northwest and north-central Nigeria, the Tibesti region of Chad, and the northwest and southwest regions of Cameroon, due to the ongoing security crisis and its corresponding population displacements. The same applies to the Liptako-Gourma region, where the security and humanitarian situation continues to give cause for concern, with an intensification of attacks on civilians and continuing population displacements. Poor income opportunities and high food prices make it difficult for poor households to access food.

Despite some modest monthly declines or stagnation in August, staple food prices remain well above the five-year average in general, against a backdrop of steadily rising global food and fuel prices. In the Sahel, these high price levels are primarily due to the early exhaustion of stocks from the last season, greater replenishment needs, various national restrictions on cereal outflows, and persistent insecurity, particularly in the Lake Chad basin and the Liptako-Gourma region. In the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea, atypical prices are mainly due to strong industrial and export demand, continuing currency depreciation and sharply rising import costs. Prices will remain above average until the arrival of the new harvest in October.

The majority of areas will remain Minimally (IPC Phase 1) food insecure until January 2023, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some. In the regions of Diffa, southern Maradi in Niger and the Lac region in Chad affected by civil insecurity, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will continue until January 2023 due to food assistance. The Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes currently affecting the Yagha and Séno provines in Burkina Faso, the north and west of the Tahoua and Tillabéri regions in Niger, the states of Borno, Yobé, Adamawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Niger and Kaduna in Nigeria, and the north and west of the North-West and South-West regions in Cameroon will persist until January 2023, and as of November these outcomes will affect all the two regions of the aforementioned areas of Cameroon.

In several areas, including the provinces of Bam, Sanmatenga, Namentenga, Gnagna, Komondjari, Gourma, Yatenga, Lorum , Kossi and Sourou in Burkina Faso, the regions of Kanem, Bar el Gazel, Wadi Fira, the west of Hadjer Lamis and the east of Batha in Chad, the north and west of the Far North region in Cameroon, eastern Mopti region and southern Timbuktu in Mali, and locally in the northern states of Nigeria, which are also affected by the Crisis (IPC Phase 3), the food situation will improve slightly from October onwards, due to new harvests, enabling households to move into Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In the provinces of Soum (Sahel region), Oudalan and the north of the Nord and Centre Nord regions in Burkina Faso, and in the north and west of Borno in Nigeria, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity due to armed conflict will persist until January 2023, although the severity of the situation will ease towards Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the west and part of the north of Borno.