Food insecurity continues to worsen among Sudanese refugees and IDPs

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The improvement in food consumption and incomes for some households has begun, due to localized early harvests and the sale of fresh cash crops such as peanuts and maize. This improvement is expected to become more widespread starting in October, when harvested areas will increase. However, food consumption deficits will persist for Sudanese refugees in the eastern provinces and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Lac Province, who have lost livelihood assets. As a result, food assistance needs will remain high in a context still marked by funding difficulties faced by humanitarian actors during the outlook period.
The influx of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees, the main driver of food insecurity in the provinces of Ouaddai, Sila, Wadi-Fira, and Ennedi-Est, continues due to ongoing conflict in Sudan. With the intensification of fighting in northern Darfur, the influx of Sudanese refugees into Wadi Fira and Ennedi-Est has increased. As of September 28, Chad has hosted 878,398 Sudanese refugees. Among refugee children under five arriving in Tine (Wadi Fira), the global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate is at a critical high of 18 percent. Furthermore, the cholera outbreak, which began on July 13 in the Dougui refugee camp (and quickly spread to other camps and host communities), is still not fully contained, worsening the humanitarian situation in the region. As of September 26, the outbreak has affected nine health districts across the provinces of Ouaddai, Sila, and Guéra, with 2,475 cases reported, including 141 associated deaths. The rapid spread of cholera in refugee camps and host communities is likely to further deteriorate household nutrition, particularly for refugees and poor households already suffering from acute food insecurity. Host households may benefit from the harvests to improve their food consumption, but refugee households will continue to face consumption deficits during and beyond the harvest period unless there is a significant scaleup of assistance programs.
In Lac Province, attacks by non-state armed groups (NSAGs) continue. According to ACLED, there were two security incidents in August and seven in July, which have prevented populations from carrying out their normal livelihoods, especially agriculture, fishing, and cross-border trade with Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria. These attacks have triggered population displacements to safer villages, often leading to community conflicts due to the increasing pressure on dwindling agricultural and pastoral resources, worsened by rising lake water levels. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the number of IDPs in August reached 225,689 people. These households are experiencing severe food difficulties due to the loss of their food stocks and livelihoods during displacement, adding pressure on host communities already competing for agricultural, fishing, and pastoral resources. An assessment conducted at the Nguilidou 2 and Karam 2 sites revealed worrying food conditions among displaced households, with 65 percent of households having poor food consumption scores, and GAM rates of 15 percent (Critical) in Karam and 7 percent (Alert) in Nguilidou, based on mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurements. These findings indicate a deficit in food consumption and deteriorating food security among IDPs.
The agricultural season is progressing well, with significant rainfall since July with good spatiotemporal distribution. According to Agence Nationale de la Meteorologie, average to above-average rainfall levels were observed in Sudanian and Sahelian zones during the first 10 days of September. However, moderate deficits have been recorded in parts of southeast Ouaddai, central and eastern Sila, most of Salamat, southern Guéra, Moyen Chari, Logone Oriental, southeastern Chari Baguirmi, and Tandjilé. Overall, crop development is progressing well, though stages vary from weeding and thinning to stem elongation, heading, flowering, and even milky stage. Average rainfall forecasts for September and October could further stimulate crop growth and maturation, supporting the continuation and intensification of harvests through December 2025, effectively ending the lean season around October 2025.
Markets remain stocked, with relatively stable or falling prices, due to merchant destocking, subsidized sales by the National Office for Food Security, intensified cross-border flows with Libya, green harvests, and imports. However, in most eastern markets and some provinces in the Sudanian zone, grain prices continued to rise in August 2025, driven by refugee influxes, high fuel prices, and poor road conditions. For instance, pearl millet prices rose over 26.6 percent compared to the five-year average in Allacha, Farchana, and Hadjer Hadid markets (Ouaddai Province); in Kelo (Tandjilé Province), millet prices increased by 7 percent compared to August 2024 and 28 percent above the five-year average. Cassava flour, a key cereal substitute, also increased 40 percent compared to August 2024 prices, and 43 percent above the five-year average.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Chad Key Message Update September 2025: Food insecurity continues to worsen among Sudanese refugees and IDPs, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.