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New, ongoing harvests are improving the current food situation for households

  • Key Message Update
  • Chad
  • November 2016
New, ongoing harvests are improving the current food situation for households

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Cereal production for the 2016/2017 season is estimated at 2,813,842 tons according to the Ministry of Agriculture (DPAS) compared to the five-year average of 2,530,630 tons, which is an increase of 11 percent. With the exception of wheat (-10 percent) given dry spells observed during the season, all cereal crops have registered an increase compared to the five-year average due to the favorable levels of rain which were well-distributed over time.

    • The cereal surplus is larger in the Sahelian zone (+`4 percent) compared to the southern part of the country (+5 percent). Nevertheless, rice and millet in the Soudanian band have registered deficits of 15 and 14 percent respectively compared to the five-year average because of dry spells. The only deficit regions are BEG, Wadi Fira, and Tandjilé that have cereal deficits ranging from 6 to 12 percent. 

    • Households in the Kanem and Bahr El Ghazal Regions, plus those in Kobé Department (Wadi Fira) and Abtouyour Department (Guera) will start depending normally on the market in March and will have difficulties for their food consumption starting in first semester in 2017 due to strong declines in their main revenue sources. To this effect, households in these two regions and two departments will be in a Stressed (IPC Phase 2) situation in April and May.

    • The pastoral situation is characterized by good animal body conditions thanks to the very favorable pasture availability that can cover food needs until the end of April 2017 instead of the end of March as in a normal year. However, in the transhumance zones, pastures will be available only until the end of February instead of the end of March following dry sequences. Temporary lakes will remain well-filled and can continue to water animals until February/March in the Sahel and April in the Soudanian band as is usual.

    • Thanks to the better than average cereal stock levels, the good pasture availability and income from agricultural manual labor, most households are capable of covering their food needs and the majority of zones will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity until May 2017, with the exception of Lac which is affected by the Boko Haram conflict.  It will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and from April in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) following the early depletion of stocks.

       

      For more information, see Food Security Outlook for October 2016 to May 2017.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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