Food insecurity persists in eastern Chad, requiring sustained food assistance

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The main drivers of acute food insecurity in Chad include the continued influx of Sudanese refugees and returning Chadians into the eastern provinces, various conflicts affecting several regions of the country, climate shocks — particularly flooding — high transportation costs, and a sluggish macroeconomic situation resulting from the decline in oil revenues. In October 2024, FEWS NET estimated that 1.5 to 2 million people would need food assistance between February and May 2025 in Chad. Due to the influx of refugees, the provinces of Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, and Ennedi Est were experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes, with pockets of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Additionally, the Lac Province was also in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to flooding and ongoing insecurity caused by terrorist group attacks, which led to internal displacement.
During the current lean season, from July to August 2025, Sudanese refugees in the eastern provinces, internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the Lac Region, and very poor households in rural and urban areas are expected to face food consumption deficits due to depleted household food stocks and reduced purchasing power. This is largely due to stiff competition for limited job opportunities, caused by an oversupply of labor in both rural and urban areas. However, based on seasonal forecasts, an improvement in food consumption is anticipated starting in September with the onset of the harvest period, and lasting through December 2025, particularly for local communities. However, food consumption gaps will persist through December for Sudanese refugees in the eastern provinces, who have lost their livelihoods. In the Iridimi camp in Wadi Fira, children of newly arrived refugees are experiencing very high global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates (up to 30 percent). These refugees rely primarily on food assistance, which is insufficient to meet all their needs. As of June 20, 2025, only 11.8 percent of the people targeted by Chad’s 2025 humanitarian response plan had received food assistance, due to funding shortfalls faced by humanitarian actors.
Since January 2025, food security conditions have not significantly improved, despite some contributions from off-season crop production. The influx of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees continues into the eastern provinces. As of July 27, 2025, the number of new refugees arriving from Sudan since April 2023 reached 874,605 people. According to UNHCR, the country now hosts over 2 million forcibly displaced people, including more than 1.4 million refugees, 226,000 IDPs, and 368,000 returnees in the Lake Province from Niger, the Central African Republic, and Sudan, along with a few asylum seekers. These displaced populations are putting enormous pressure on available resources, creating an oversupply of labor and intense competition with host communities for scarce job opportunities. In the eastern provinces, where the majority of Sudanese refugees are concentrated, price increases are occurring, especially during the ongoing lean season.
Attacks by non-state armed groups in the Lake region continue, albeit at low levels — three attacks since January 2025 — according to ACLED data. These attacks cause population displacement and disrupt livelihoods, market functioning, agricultural activity, and fishing. In the north, rebel group activities along the Libyan border are disrupting cross-border trade flows, affecting market supplies in northern and other provinces. Furthermore, recurrent intercommunal conflicts have escalated in 2025, spreading to several provinces across the country. Since May 2025, 42 people were killed in Logone Occidental, 16 in Ouaddaï, 17 in Mayo Kebbi Ouest, and six in Salamat due to these conflicts. According to the International Crisis Group, between 2021 and 2024, such agropastoral conflicts caused over 1,000 deaths and 2,000 injuries, and continue to disrupt ongoing agricultural activities.
The current lean season, from May to August, is marked by early depletion of household food stocks due to a 3.8 percent decline in cereal production for 2024–2025 compared to the average. Markets are moderately active, but less so than in a normal year due to reduced production, high transportation costs, and insecurity. Nonetheless, food availability has been supported by relatively good off-season crop production and imports of substitute products like pasta, facilitated by tax exemptions on food imports since February 2025. As a result, staple food prices are stable or even declining. In Abéché, the price of millet dropped by 38 percent in June compared to the previous year.
This general price stability and observed declines have led to lower inflation, dropping from 12.1 percent in July 2024 (INSEED) to 2.7 percent in June 2025. However, economic prospects have not significantly improved in 2025 compared to 2024, even with lower inflation. Normally, lower inflation suggests increased consumer purchasing power, but in Chad’s context, this is not evident due to the population’s low purchasing power. According to the World Bank, the extreme poverty rate is expected to increase by 1.2 percentage points, reaching 40.6 percent in 2025, or an additional 500,000 people living in extreme poverty. Livelihoods have continued to erode, especially in areas affected by insecurity (Lake Chad), flooding, and the massive influx of refugees in the East.
The 2025-2026 agricultural season has begun but has experienced delays in most agricultural areas of the country. By the end of June 2025, the season had not fully set in, particularly in the Sahelian belt. Delays of up to a month or more have been noted in southern Salamat Province, Guéra, and Tandjilé. However, seasonal forecasts predict above-average rainfall, with higher-than-normal cumulative precipitation. Flooding risks remain in 2025, as in 2024 when they caused deaths, destroyed crops, and led to road damage, resulting in transportation difficulties and irregular market supply in remote areas.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Chad Key Message Update July 2025: Food insecurity persists in eastern Chad, requiring sustained food assistance, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.