Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes persist in eastern Chad

• Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (Phase 3) outcomes are expected between October 2025 and May 2026 in the provinces of Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, and Ennedi-Est, which are hosting the influx of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees. These displaced populations are placing continuous pressure on livelihoods and social services, increasing the labor supply and subsequently the competition for scarce agricultural and non-agricultural work opportunities. In addition, the cholera outbreak – which began in July with the first case identified in the Dougui refugee camp and rapidly spread to other camps and host communities – is increasing needs in a context of limited resources, affecting capacity to support household food consumption.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are also expected in Lac Province due to impacts from terrorist group attacks and flooding. These attacks have led to population displacements, with the region recording more than 225,600 internally displaced persons (IDPs). Insecurity, exacerbated by flooding, is disrupting livelihoods and market supply in this province.
• Assistance needs will remain high countrywide even in the post-harvest period, particularly for Sudanese refugees, Chadian returnees, and IDPs in Lac Province. Starting in January 2026, food stocks of poor and very poor households will be depleted. Approximately 1.5 to 1.99 million people will be in need of food assistance, peaking between April and May 2026.
• The expected 2025/26 agricultural production is overall average with above-average yields in the Sahelian zone where rainfall was average to above average. However, below-average yields are observed in provinces affected by delayed onset of the season and dry spells, particularly in the Sudanian zone.
• The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 17, 2025.

The Sudanese conflict has led to an influx of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees in the provinces of eastern Chad, particularly in Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, and Ennedi-Est. Since the beginning of the conflict in April 2023 in Sudan, more than 881,400 refugees and 329,894 returnees have arrived in Chad. Refugees are heavily concentrated in Assoungha department (Ouaddaï Province). However, since April 2025, the escalation of the conflict in Sudan, particularly in North Darfur, has increased the influx of refugees and Chadian returnees in Wadi Fira and Ennedi-Est provinces, significantly increasing the population in the eastern provinces and placing pressure on local food and income sources. Deprived of their livelihoods, households’ income sources are very limited, and they compete with host communities for scarce agricultural and non-agricultural work opportunities. Thus, to meet their food needs, refugees depend largely on food assistance in a context where humanitarian actors face growing funding difficulties. Furthermore, the cholera epidemic that broke out in July 2025 in the refugee camp in Dougui, and rapidly spread to 14 health districts in Ouaddaï, Sila, Guéra, and Hadjer Lamis provinces, affecting refugees and host communities, has exacerbated humanitarian concerns. The steady influx of refugees is maintaining a high number of people in need.

Conflicts resulting from terrorist group attacks in the Lake Chad basin, rebels on the borders with Libya and the Central African Republic, and intercommunal conflicts in the Sudanian region are impacting household livelihoods, trade flows, and market functioning. In Lac, the persistence of insecurity since 2015 due to attacks by the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) has led to the abandonment of arable land, population displacements, and a decrease in fishing activities. Although these attacks have become sporadic, the Lac region hosts more than 225,689 IDPs, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). In the north, along the border with Libya, attacks by security forces of the Front for Change and Concord (FACT) and the National Front for Democracy and Justice in Chad (FNDJT) rebels have so far been relatively contained and sporadically disrupt trade flows from Libya. This disruption of cross-border flows affects market supply in deficit areas, especially the northern provinces, as well as Kanem and Bahr el-Gazal. Intercommunal conflicts, including farmer-herder and land conflicts, are more frequent in the Sudanian zone and in Lac. These acts of violence lead to population displacements and are often deadly, and disrupt market functioning, fishing, and agricultural and livestock production activities.

Household livelihoods in Chad are primarily dominated by agriculture and livestock. Agricultural and cereal production, which also extends to agropastoral zones, are highly sensitive to rainfall variability, particularly droughts and floods. In 2024, heavy rains caused flooding, particularly in Lac, Mandoul, Moyen-Chari, Tandjilé, and Mayo-Kebbi. These floods, which coincided with the crop maturation phase, destroyed more than 418,300 hectares of cropland, resulting in reduced harvests. However, the 2025/26 agricultural season was marked primarily by irregular rainfall, leading to the disruption of planting dates in agricultural and agropastoral zones. In the Sudanian agricultural zone, planting typically begins around late April through June with harvest from September to December, but the 2025 agricultural season experienced delays, often exceeding 30 days in some provinces of the zone. Although agricultural labor opportunities are the main source of income for poor households during the lean season, in the case of potential conflict zones, access to fields and sources of food and income could be challenging. In pastoral zones, rainfall from July to September typically allows for the replenishment of pastures and water points, which improves livestock body conditions, as well as their market values and milk production (an important source of food and income during this period).

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Latest Chad Food Security Outlook: October 2024 to May 2025
• Latest Chad Key Message Update: September 2025
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis 

The persistence of conflict in Sudan continues to drive an influx of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees into the eastern provinces of Chad. The refugee influx represents the main driver of food insecurity in Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi-Fira, and Ennedi-Est provinces. Refugees and returnees place pressure on the livelihoods of host communities and increase the labor supply and competition for scarce agricultural and non-agricultural work opportunities. The intensification of conflicts since April 2025 in the North Darfur region and attacks on Zamzam IDP camp in Sudan have led to a second surge (and peak) of refugee inflows.

According to ACLED, from January to September 2025, the country experienced a total of 132 violent events of various types, causing 228 deaths (Figure 1). These events primarily consist of attacks by armed terrorist groups in Lac and intercommunal conflicts in the southern Sudanian zone. They result in forced displacement of populations and the destruction of household livelihoods, preventing people from conducting their typical food and income-earning activities, particularly agriculture, livestock herding, and fishing in the islands. Conflict also disrupts markets and internal and cross-border food product flows. According to UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Lac Province has a recorded 225,689 IDPs due to attacks by ISWAP. The IDPs create competition for the livelihoods of host populations. The most affected households are those whose income sources are linked to agriculture in low-lying fields, pastures, fishing, and those residing in areas where rising lake waters flood agricultural lands and pastures. Insecurity also renders these islands inaccessible and consequently, both agricultural and fishery production are declining.

The 2025 agricultural season was marked by a late onset, and was locally punctuated by periods of dry spells that negatively impacted harvests. In the Sudanian zone, these irregularities led to re-sowing and crop abandonment, and resulted locally in extensions of the lean season and production declines. Overall, the season recorded excess rainfall accumulations in the central and western parts of the country, leading to floods affecting 259,000 hectares of agricultural land, primarily in Logone Oriental, Mandoul, Moyen Chari, and Tandjilé. Expected production is generally average, with localized deficits in areas with late onset and/or early cessation of rains.

Weak purchasing power due to well below-average income has made food access difficult for poor and very poor households who lost their agricultural income sources following floods. The most affected provinces are Lac, Mandoul, Moyen-Chari, Tandjilé, and Mayo-Kebbi, despite low prices resulting from destocking by traders and continuously declining inflation. According to the National Institute of Statistics, Economic and Demographic Studies (INSEED), the inflation rate decreased from 3.7 percent in May, to 2.7 percent in June, 1.5 percent in July, and 0.7 percent in August 2025.

Since the outbreak of the cholera epidemic in the refugee camp in Dougui in July, cases have rapidly spread to other camps and host communities. As of October 29, 2,824 cases have been recorded in four provinces: Ouaddaï, Sila, Guéra, and Hadjer Lamis. The epidemic will further increase the vulnerability of poor households and refugees.

Humanitarian food assistance

Food assistance in the form of food and cash transfers continues for Sudanese refugees, Chadian returnees, and host households. Generally, WFP provides monthly unconditional food assistance for refugees, and three months of assistance for Chadian returnees, despite irregular distribution. On average, 10 percent of the most vulnerable host households around refugee camps also receive food assistance. The current cash transfer of 8,000 FCFA per person (or 48,000 FCFA for a household of six) covers 63 percent of the food basket, or approximately 1,323 kilocalories per person per day. According to partial data available, cash transfers and food distributions have been carried out in the various refugee camps and returnee sites in the four eastern provinces, and have been able to cover more than 20 percent of the population in these refugee-hosting areas.

Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected for the departments of Assoungha in Ouaddaï Province, Kimiti in Sila, Kobé and Dar-Tama in Wadi Fira, and Wadi Hawar in Ennedi-Est. In these departments, purchasing power is weak for households who have completely exhausted their food stocks and are heavily indebted. Any improvements in income and food consumption are very limited, with persistent deterioration due to the continuous increase in refugee influx, and refugees represent 32-50 percent of the total population. Refugees in these departments are highly dependent on food assistance to reduce their consumption deficits. Food assistance covers more than 20 percent of the total population who receive monthly food assistance in the form of food or cash transfers, although distributions are irregular. Partial data on food assistance between January and September 2025 show that refugees in the camps covered by the report have a high distribution rate. In September, 373,000 beneficiaries received cash assistance in Ouaddaï Province, while refugees and returnees are concentrated in Assoungha department. Food assistance coverage could be estimated at more than 31 percent relative to the total population of this department. With the planned monthly distribution, despite irregularities, food assistance coverage in other departments with concentrations of refugees and returnees could also be estimated at more than 20 percent of the population. Given the severity of food security outcomes which are driving refugees to flee Sudan, combined with information from field observations and the high level of malnutrition observed among new arrivals, it is likely that some refugees arriving in Chad face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). In Wadi Fira and Ennedi-Est, children under five years old who arrived in September 2025 in Tine have a critical global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate of 18 percent. However, refugees are rapidly enrolled in feeding programs, which should enable a rapid reduction in food consumption deficits within these populations.

In the department of Amdjarass in Ennedi-Est, households are unable to meet their food consumption needs despite hosting fewer refugees. Households are forced to resort to negative coping strategies such as reducing meal size or quantity, and are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

In the departments of Ouara (Ouaddaï), Djouf Al-Ahmar (Sila), and Biltine (Wadi Fira), the availability of food products is currently strengthened by early harvests, leading to lower prices compared to the same time last year. Host households have greater access to harvests that allow them to improve their food consumption and meet their food, but not non-food, needs. These three departments are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

Host households and IDPs in Lac Province face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to the persistence of attacks by non-state armed groups (NSAGs) which result in population displacements and affect agricultural production, fishing, and cross-border trade activities. IDPs face competition with host populations over limited agricultural, fishery, and pastoral resources, negatively impacting their income and food consumption. Indeed, these IDPs have a worrying food situation, with a poor food consumption score of 65 percent and a GAM rate from Alert to Critical.

The late onset of the season and dry spells led to replanting in the Sudanian zone (Salamat, Moyen Chari, Mandoul, Logone Oriental and Occidental, Tandjilé, and Mayo Kebbi East and West), and to poor and very poor households resorting to take on debt to meet their food needs. The ongoing harvests have begun with early crops, but with low availability due to the delayed onset of the season. The early harvests are providing marginal food consumption improvements for poor and very poor households who have completely exhausted their stocks, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

Excess cumulative rainfall has enabled the restoration of livelihoods in the central and Sahel provinces, Kanem, Bahr el-Ghazal, Batha, Hajer Lamis, Chari Baguirmi, and Guéra, with pastoral conditions better than last year. Poor and very poor households, although still dependent on markets, are beginning to benefit from falling market prices and the availability of early harvests for consumption. The resumption of cross-border trade with Libya is supporting the decline in food prices and the export of livestock with good market value. Income from livestock sales allows households to repay debts and cover some food expenses. However, they are unable to meet their non-food needs while fully paying off their debts, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

Households in the northern provinces (Borkou, Ennedi-Ouest, and Tibesti) are largely dependent on markets for their food consumption. Main sources of income include cross-border trade, cash transfers from migration to Libya, and work in gold mining sites. With the improvement of the security situation at the borders and in the northern zone generally, income from these activities is increasing, as are import flows of manufactured and imported food products from Libya that supply the markets in these areas. Internal flows are weak due to delays in harvests in the south and the state of roads. Consequently, food prices are still high, exacerbated by the high cost of fuel, limiting household access to food. With the expected improvements in income, and the good availability of food imported from Libya, food consumption is adequate; however, households face persistent difficulties in meeting their non-food needs. These provinces are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

• Given the current level of crop development, 2025 rainfed production will be generally average, with localized below-average production in areas where the season onset was delayed and where dry spells did not allow for good crop development. Off-season production is also expected to be average, but with a downward trend due to the high cost of fuel and labor.
• The annual seasonal decline in prices will amplify the atypical decline in food prices, particularly cereals, which began in April 2025. Prices will fall further between October and December with the harvests (Figure 2). They will follow the trend of the five-year average until January 2026, the end of the harvest period. From February 2026, due to the anticipated depletion of stocks of deficit-producing households and the increase in demand during Ramadan, prices could atypically rise above seasonal averages, particularly in Lac Province, due to insecurity, and the eastern provinces, which are experiencing a continuous influx of Sudanese refugees.
• The significant decline in inflation driven by decreased food prices will continue until February 2026 with the anticipated harvests. Inflation will then gradually rise until the lean season starting in March with Ramadan and the depletion of household food stocks.
• The influx of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees in the eastern provinces will continue throughout the projection period. The livelihoods of populations in host areas will continue to deteriorate throughout the projection period.
• Incursions by the Islamic State in West Africa (ISWAP) are expected to continue causing population displacements and deterioration of livelihoods such as agriculture and fishing, as well as disruptions to market functioning, through May 2026.
• Over the period from October 2025 to May 2026, farmer-herder conflicts and intercommunal violence will persist. An increase is likely in the Sudanian zone, where a resurgence of these conflicts is expected to start in November 2025 and progressively intensify through May 2026 when herders move their livestock into agricultural areas.
• The security situation will continue to be calm and favorable to the development of cross-border flows at the border with Libya. This will improve market supplies in the Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti, Kanem, Bahr el-Ghazal, Wadi Fira, Batha, and Ouaddaï provinces with increased imports and flows of manufactured food products (pasta, oils, sugar, small trade, sale of animals, and dates).

Humanitarian food assistance

• Historical distribution trends and information gathered from partners indicate that, despite the reduction in humanitarian funding, emergency food assistance will remain available throughout the projection period, given the constant influx of Sudanese refugees and Chadian migrants returning from Sudan. Social in-kind transfers will also continue with the arrival of new harvests and the Ramadan period. However, the cholera epidemic has diversified the activities of humanitarian actors amid limited resources, which will further reduce their capacity to support household food consumption.

Between October 2025 and May 2026, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) will persist in departments with high concentrations of refugees such as Assoungha, Kimiti, Wadi Hawar, Dar-Tama, and Kobé. Refugees will remain dependent on food assistance to limit food consumption deficits. Consumption deficits among host communities are also likely to increase given the continued pressure exerted by refugees on livelihoods and work opportunities. Thus, the departments of Amdjarass in Ennedi-Est, Megri in Wadi Fira, and Abdi in Ouaddaï will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between October 2025 and May 2026. In September 2025, new refugees arriving in Tine, Wadi Fira had a Critical GAM rate of 18 percent. With the continued influx of refugees and their relocation, increasingly large numbers of households will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through May 2026, but their proportion will remain below 20 percent of the population in these areas.

New harvests will seasonally improve food consumption among host households in departments with low concentrations of refugees, particularly Biltine in Wadi Fira, Djouf Al-Ahmar in Sila, and Ouara in Ouaddaï. Between October 2025 and January 2026, poor and very poor households in these departments will be able to meet their minimum food needs, but will be unable to cover non-food expenses as they work repay debts, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Between February and May 2026, due to early depletion of stocks, households will depend on markets with high prices amid low purchasing power, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Between October 2025 and May 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will be expected in departments with limited access (Fouli and Kaya in Lac Province). Sporadic attacks by NSAGs and ongoing security measures will likely limit household access to agricultural production and fishing areas in these departments. Markets continue to be poorly supplied. With the deterioration of livelihoods, particularly fishing, and low household purchasing power amid increasing prices, food access will remain difficult throughout the projection period.

In the calmer departments of Wayi and Mamdi, the food security situation will improve due to the availability of early harvests and the favorable livestock body conditions. Between October 2025 and January 2026, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist. Population displacements and flooding of low-lying areas have reduced area cultivated and led to a decline in harvests, which will prevent sufficient replenishment of household stocks that will be depleted starting in February 2026. Due to declining income, IDPs and host households will experience food consumption gaps. They will be in acute food insecurity Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the period from February to May 2026, resorting to negative coping strategies to meet their consumption needs.

Between October 2025 and May 2026 in the Sahelian provinces, Kanem, Bahr el-Ghazal, Batha, Hajer Lamis, Chari Baguirmi, and Guéra, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in all departments. Rainfed production and off-season market gardening, as well as income from the sale of livestock and milk, will be above average, which will contribute to improving food consumption and household livelihoods. However, starting in February 2026, poor and very poor households in North Kanem and North Bahr el-Gazal will see their food stocks depleted, food prices increase due to high transportation costs, and seasonal deterioration of the market value of livestock starting in February 2026, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

In the northern provinces of the country bordering Libya and Niger, Borkou, Ennedi-Ouest, and Tibesti, households depend mainly on markets for food. With the improvement of security conditions at the border with Libya and the resumption of cross-border activities, the income uncertainty of poor and very poor households throughout the projection period will create instability as their purchasing power will remain low. Households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the projection period between October 2025 and May 2025.

Between October 2025 and May 2026, poor and very poor households in all departments of the Sudanian zone (Salamat, Moyen Chari, Mandoul, Logone Oriental and Occidental, Tandjilé, and Mayo Kebbi East and West) will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes throughout the projection period. Food consumption will be supported by ongoing harvests between October 2025 and January 2026, despite the delayed start of the agricultural season, localized dry spells, and the likely resurgence of farmer-herder conflicts. Food conditions will improve further between February and May 2026 with off-season production, income from agricultural labor, and sales of gathered products, small ruminants, and fruits (mainly mangoes).

However, households impacted by a delayed start of the season and dry spells, particularly in Moyen Chari, Salamat (Barh Azoum, Haraze-Manguegné), and Tandjilé, will have food stocks that allow them to cover their food, but not non-food, needs, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes between February and May 2026.

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario.
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National

Significant general decline in production to below-average levels.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A significant decline in production to below-average levels would result in early depletion of household stocks, a decrease in income from agricultural production, and an unexpected increase in prices. Food access for very poor and poor households would be further reduced due to low income levels. This will lead to increases in populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the Western Sahel and several provinces in the Sudanian zone. In areas hosting refugees and returned migrants, the number of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will increase.

Strengthening of humanitarian interventions through substantial financial support from donors.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: The increase in humanitarian assistance funding by donors will improve the quality (more kilocalories provided) and coverage (more refugee and returned migrant beneficiaries) in the eastern part of the country. Humanitarian operations could thus cover the needs of these populations while also responding to the needs of continuous waves of new refugees. Household food consumption will improve and most provinces in the east would be in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!).

Provinces bordering Libya

Resumption of rebel group incursions at the northern borders of the country.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Attacks between rebel groups and government forces would cause security restrictions at the borders between Chad and Libya. This will be followed by a significant decrease in the flow of food products imported from Libya and the supply of these products on markets. Food access for very poor and poor households would be further reduced due to low income levels. This will lead to increases in populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), particularly in BET, Kanem, and Bahr el-Ghazal.

Lac Province

Resumption of humanitarian action in Lac.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A renewal of food interventions for the benefit of IDPs and host households in Lac would reduce the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Their food consumption will likely improve and move to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) due to the assistance.

Since the beginning of the Sudanese refugee crisis in April 2023, refugees arriving in Chad have received food assistance upon registration with UNHCR. In principle, they receive monthly assistance, although this assistance is sometimes irregular, while Chadian returnees receive three months of food assistance. Refugees and returnees fled Sudan because of the armed conflict and lost their livelihoods. The assistance is coupled with social support provided by the community during Ramadan, Eid, and other social mechanisms such as zakat. Food assistance is mostly in the form of cash transfers, but also in-kind food. The current cash transfer of 8,000 FCFA per person, or 48,000 FCFA for a household of six people, covers 63 percent of the food basket, representing approximately 1,323 kilocalories per person per day (kcal/person/day). Available data show that cash transfers and food distributions have been carried out in the various refugee camps and returnee sites in the four eastern provinces. In September, 373,000 beneficiaries received cash assistance in Ouaddaï Province. While the department of Assoungha hosts more than 453,000 refugees as of the end of September, representing more than 90 percent of the province's refugees and 55 percent of the population, food assistance in Assoungha is estimated to cover more than 31 percent of the population. The food assistance provided to the department of Assoungha covers approximately 1,323 kcal/person/day, consistent with IPC requirements (food assistance covering more than 25 percent of this population and more than 50 percent of daily energy needs).

According to partial data collected from distributions from January to July, the majority of refugees in other refugee camps in the provinces of Wadi Fira, Sila, and Ennedi-Est also receive food assistance. Cash distribution in the camps of Iridimi, Amnabak, Mile, and Kounougou in Wadi Fira province reached 98 percent of the target in February and March, followed by monthly distributions from April to July. Similarly, monthly distributions were recorded in refugee camps in the provinces of Sila and Ennedi-Est. Food assistance in the departments of these provinces is expected to reach more than 20 percent of the population, despite irregularity and delays in distribution. However, it is important to note that the analysis is based on partial data from certain camps and historical trends in food assistance distribution for Sudanese refugees since April 2023. Furthermore, according to the number of refugees registered at the end of September in the departments of Assoungha, Kimiti, Kobé, and Dar-Tama combined and Wadi Hawar, refugees represent 55, 32, 35, and 57 percent of the population, respectively. Due to the food consumption deficits resulting from the loss of livelihoods and dependence on markets for food in a context of low purchasing power, refugees depend essentially on food assistance. Thus, due to the high coverage of this assistance relative to the total population in these departments, it is highly likely that food assistance has mitigated the magnitude of food consumption deficits and prevented more severe food insecurity, supporting Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes.