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Crisis levels of food insecurity settling into localized areas of the Sahel

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Chad
  • April - September 2014
Crisis levels of food insecurity settling into localized areas of the Sahel

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  • Key Messages
  • National Overview
  • Area of Concern
  • Events that Might Change the Outlook
  • Key Messages
    • Poor households in the Wadi Fira and southern Bahr El-Ghazel (BEG) areas are facing food consumption deficits on account of the premature depletion of their food stocks, the unusually steep increases in food prices, and poor pastoral conditions. While projected humanitarian assistance should prevent a further deterioration in their food security situation, these households will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the upcoming October harvests.
    • Livestock body conditions in the Sahelian zone are poorer than usual due to pasture deficits in that area. This is reducing milk availability and livestock prices and is eroding the purchasing power of pastoralists. Affected households in the Batha, northern BEG, Kanem, Guera, Sila, and Hadjer Lamis areas will have difficulty maintaining their food access and, thus, will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between April and September.
    • The presence of refugees and returnees in Logone Oriental, Moyen Chari, Mandoul, and Salamat is creating additional costs for their host families, is increasing the household dependency ratio, or number of dependents per household, and is putting pressure on household demand, consumption, and spending. As a result, these households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

    National Overview
    Current situation

    Agricultural conditions

    Agricultural activities for the 2014/2015 growing season are on schedule and progressing normally. In the south, the main activity is currently land preparation work. The threshing of cold off-season wheat also continues in the polder systems of the Lake Chad area. Most off-season rice crops in Mayo Kebbi are currently in the tillering stage, with the most advanced crops in the height growth stage. These farming activities are creating job opportunities, while harvests of off-season crops are improving household food availability and consumption.

    Status of pastoral resources

    There is a growing scarcity of pasture in the vicinity of villages in the Sahelian zone, as well as certain departments in the Sudanian zone such as Kyabé and Bahr Kôh. As a result, pastoralists are often forced to drive their herds to rangelands far from their villages to ensure that the the animals have enough to eat. Livestock body conditions are poorer than usual and certain animals are physically exhausted, which could reduce their draft power and affect the quality of their meat, driving down livestock prices. However, there are currently no livestock diseases present in country that would economically stress pastoralists in a significant manner. Larger than usual concentrations of animal herds have been observed in the southern part of the country with the earlier than usual pasture deficits in the Sahelian zone and the mass influx of returning pastoralists fleeing conflict in the Central African Republic (CAR).

    Population movements

    There is a gradual return of migrants to cities in the Sahelian zone, particularly in Wadi Fira, Bahr El Gazal, Hadjer Lamis, and Kanem. In addition, according to certain sources, the number of returnees and refugees from the CAR arriving at two intake centers is estimated at between 90,000 and 100,000 people. A third site is currently being identified for their possible relocation. Community assistance and the miscellaneous food and nonfood aid furnished by the government and international organizations are enabling these returnees and refugees to meet their essential and nonessential needs without any major difficulties at this time. For example, the WFP has recently instituted a voucher program for a target group of 54,000 returnees in the southern part of the country. However, the presence of these returnees from the CAR is putting pressure on the food supplies and consumption of host households in the Mandoul, Moyen Chari, Logone Oriental, and Salamat areas. 

    Household cereal stocks

    Cereal stocks in the Sahelian zone depleted in March, two months earlier than usual, due to large 2013/14 cereal production shortfalls compared with the five-year average. In particular, cereal stocks depleted early in Wadi Fira (-49 percent), Kanem (-77 percent), Barh El-Ghazal (-25 percent), and Sila (-21 percent) areas due to below-average 2013 rainfall levels. In the Sudanian zone, current food stocks are average at best, despite above-average 2013/14 crop production levels, due to the repayment of their larger than normal in-kind debts incurred as a result of the large cereal deficit during the 2012/13 growing season.

    Markets

    Existing inventories (including the National Food Security Agency (ONASA) inventories) should help maintain an average market supply of foodstuffs and, thus, contain food prices increases. In addition, recent harvests of flood recession crops have bolstered food supplies on the Moyen Chari, Salamat, Batha, and Guera markets. However, in the Sahelian zone, strong demand from deficit areas is keeping prices for cereals (millet, sorghum, rice, and maize) high and well above their five-year averages. Government-subsidized cereal sales that began in March also failed to significantly reduce this market demand. Currently, the highest price increases compared to the five-year average are for millet in Moussoro (+30 percent), maize in Bol (+42 percent) and sorghum in Biltine (+47 percent).

    Supplies on livestock markets have tightened and are lower than usual due to a scarcity of animals as livestock animals are concentrated around distant watering holes and pasturelands much farther south. In Mao, market demand is much stronger than usual due to the issuance of a procurement notice by Action Against Hunger (ACF) for the purchase of small ruminants for possible distribution to at-risk populations. This strong demand has driven up small prices on the Mao market to 20 to 25 percent above the five-year average. Prices on other livestock markets have come down since March, but are still above the five-year average. However, terms of trade are detrimental to pastoralists due to high cereal prices. For example, the sale of an average male goat on the Moundou market buys 70 kg of sorghum this year, which compares with the five-year average of 96 kg. Similarly, the sale of an average sheep on the Biltine market currently buys 102 kg of millet, which is 32 percent less than the five-year average. 

    Assumptions

    The most likely food security scenario for April through September 2014 is based on the following assumptions on country-wide conditions:

    • Agroclimatology: The rainy season will begin on schedule in all agropastoral areas of Chad. The first rains will fall in April/May in the Sudanian zone and in June in the Sahelian zone. Cumulative rainfall and rainfall distribution for the 2014 rainy season will be relatively normal.
    • Outlook for agricultural labor: With the 2014-2015 growing season expected to get off to a normal start, land preparation and field cleanup work will begin simultaneously between May and July in all parts of the country, creating a high seasonal demand for labor. Wage rates will also be up from last year when there was a comparatively larger supply of labor with both the rainy season and the growing season getting off to a rough start.
    • Pastoral conditions: The low supply of pasture and water will make it difficult for livestock to maintain their normal body weight until May – June, when the first rains cause the development of new green pasture and the replenishment of animal watering holes. Before then, the period of poor pasture and water access, which began this year in March across the Sahelian zone instead of May as in a normal year, will be long and difficult for livestock. This will drive down livestock prices and will reduce household incomes, particularly in the Kanem, Barh El Ghazel, Hadjer-Lamis, Wadi Fira, Dababa, Haraze Al Biar, and northern Batha areas. In the Sudanian zone, the first rains are expected to fall in or around May/June and should help spur new grass growth, as well as refill animal watering holes in certain areas. Between July and September, there will be a good availability of milk at relatively average and affordable prices (250 to 300 CFAF/liter). Conditions will also improve in the Sahelian zone with the first significant rains occurring sometime in June.
    • Migration and remittances: Despite the gradual return of migrants to cities since the beginning of April, internal and intra-regional migration will generally end May/June, with average levels of migrant remittances.
    • Household cereal demand: In the Sahelian zone, there will be a steady growth in household demand, with demand peaking in July/August. During this time period, demand in this zone will also be above average. September harvests of early crops will improve household food consumption and will make households slightly less dependent on market purchases. In the Sudanian zone, household food stocks will begin to run out, as usual, by May, causing these households to become more dependent on market purchases in June. This will heighten seasonal household demand on local markets. Households in receiving areas for refugees and/or returnees from the CAR (Moyen Chari, Mandoul, Logone Oriental, and Sila) will be dependent on market purchases earlier than usual, creating an above-average market demand. During the observance of Ramadan (July), heavy consumption of bouille (porridge) could further heighten cereal demand, before then leveling off in August and decreasing in September with the harvests of early crops.
    • Supply: With the expected good start to the 2014/2015 growing season, markets will continue to be well supplied in most areas of the country through trader inventories. Supply levels in the Sudanian zone will be slightly above-average due to the good 2013/14 crop production in that area. The Kanem and Hadjer Lamis markets will rely on cereal supplies from the Lake Chad region, where there are three growing seasons per year (the rainy season, the cool season, and the hot season).
    • Cereal prices: Beginning in April, cereal prices across the country will be above the five-year average and will peak in August. Millet and sorghum prices on markets in the Sahelian zone could rise by as much as 30 and 50 percent, respectively. However in the Sudanian zone, price increases will be less steep than in the Sahelian zone due to the high levels of local inventories.
    • Livestock markets: Livestock prices will decrease between April and June in line with the seasonal deterioration in pastoral conditions. In the Sahelian zone, prices will be below seasonal averages as livestock trade is hampered by the Boko Haram conflict in northeastern Nigeria. However, prices will begin to rebound by the end of May or the beginning of June due to 1) the tightening of market supplies as livestock migrate back to pastoral areas, 2) improving livestock body conditions, and 3) growing livestock demand for the observance of Ramadan. These factors could help stabilize terms of trade in June and lead to improving terms of trade starting in July.
    • Nutrition: Global acute malnutrition rates will rise in most areas with high levels in BEG, Batha, Kanem, Lac, and Wadi Fira. Without proper targeted nutrition programs, the nutritional situation could become critical during this year’s lean season (June to August).
    • Situation of refugees/returnees: With the difficulty restoring order in the CAR, the tension is palpable and the number of refugees and returnees from CAR entering Chad is expected to grow. As a result, ongoing assistance programs by humanitarian organizations will be extended and nearly half of all returnees and refugees will be provided with full rations throughout the outlook period. However, there will still be continued pressure on host households in the three main receiving areas of southern Chad during the outlook period.
    • Humanitarian assistance: This year, humanitarian assistance will play a crucial role in easing food insecurity in targeted at-risk areas. Catholic Relief Services (CRS) will operate a food voucher program in Gueri and Bourtail cantons in northern Ouara and Wadi Fira (Biltine, Mata, and Am-zoer) for a six-month period beginning in May. In addition, government-subsidized sales of close to 15,000 metric tons of cereals to all household groups will help improve their market access.
    • Harvests of green crops: The food security situation could improve in September with the appearance of early crops (peanuts, maize, and beans) in villages and on markets. For example, the Mongo and Bitkine markets normally receive maize supplies between the middle of August and the beginning of September.
    • Harvests of flood recession (berbéré) and off-season crops: Harvests of flood recession (berbéré) and off-season crops (tomatoes, lettuce, cucumbers, watermelons, etc.) in Batha and Guera were completed by the end of March or the beginning of April. Berbéré production fell 17 percent short of the five-year average in Batha, but outstripped the five-year average by 22 percent in Guera. Harvests of off-season rice crops in Mayo Kebbi are just getting underway in localized areas, where production levels are expected to be normal.
    Most likely food security outcomes

    April through June:

    The food security situation will deteriorate between April and June in the Barh El-Ghazal and Wadi Fira areas, where household food reserves are virtually nonexistent and weak local household purchasing power in the face of unusually steep food price increases is severely curtailing food access. In response, households are reportedly selling off their small ruminants, resorting to intensive migration, and making larger than usual sales of wood and straw. However, despite these coping strategies and ongoing humanitarian assistance programs, households in Barh El-Ghazal and Wadi Fira are facing food consumption deficits and will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

    With Kanem and Hadjer Lamis dependent on cereal supplies from the Lake Chad area, which has three growing seasons per year (the rainy season, the cool season, and the hot season), and with flood recession (berberé) and off-season crop production (tomatoes, lettuce, cucumbers, watermelons, etc.) in Batha, southern Kanem, and Guera, the food security of very poor and poor households in these areas will be less severe than that of households in BEG and Wadi Fira. As a result, household food consumption in these areas will be reduced but still minimally adequate, and these households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between April and June. To this end, despite the sales of small ruminants, firewood, and charcoal by poor agropastoral households as a source of income to purchase cereals, total households incomes in these areas are still below-average.

    Adequate food availability and household food stocks and normal price levels in line with regular seasonal fluctuations will stabilize food security conditions in the rest of the Sahelian zone and across the entire Sudanian zone with the exception of the Mandoul, Moyen Chari, and Logone Oriental areas. Local households are currently effectively meeting their food and nonfood needs and will continue to maintain their food access without any major difficulty. As a result, they will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. However, the ethnic fighting in the CAR has put pressure on host households in the above-mentioned three areas of the Sudanian zone, affecting their food supply and meal quality. Thus, households in these areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the outlook period. Conditions in eastern Dar Sila are also Stressed due to the 21 percent shortfall in cereal production compared with the three-year average and the presence of returnees in that area.  

    July through September:

    The food security situation in the Sudanian zone and parts of the Sahel (Guera, Chari Baguirmi, and western Sila) should improve with the appearance of the first early crops (peanuts, maize, and beans) in villages and on local markets. For example, the Mongo and Bitkine markets (Golonty Canton and the Tounkoul area of Bidio Canton) normally receive new maize supplies between the middle of August and the beginning of September. In addition, new grass growth and an abundant supply of water will improve livestock body conditions and will result in a plentiful supply of milk at affordable prices. In addition, the observance of Ramadan will trigger a growing demand for livestock, causing livestock prices to begin to improve as of late May or early June. This could translate into a stabilization of terms of trade in June and a subsequently improvement in terms of trade starting in July. The rise in livestock prices and pastoral incomes from milk sales during this period will improve household food access through market purchases. Likewise, wage labor incomes generated by poor households in agricultural areas will ensure normal food access. As a result, households in these areas will experience Minimal to No (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

    The depletion of their food reserves will keep poor households in the Batha, northern Guera, northern Ouara, and Kanem areas of the Sahelian zone market-dependent. Furthermore, their food access will be limited by prices that are well above the five-year average, causing households to resort to the sale of small ruminants, wood, and straw, as well as short-term seasonal labor migration, to meet their needs. However, despite these normal seasonal strategies, household incomes will be below-average and food consumption will be reduced, though minimally adequate. On the other hand, with the depletion of their food stocks and rising cereal prices, households in certain areas (BEG, Wadi Fira, and parts of northern Ouara) are already experiencing food consumption deficits and will continue to face problems meeting their minimal food needs in the coming months. While projected humanitarian assistance should prevent a further deterioration in their food security situation, these households in BEG, Wadi Fira, and parts of northern Ouara will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity. Meanwhile, households in the Batha, northern Guera, and Kanem areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until the upcoming October harvests.

    The presence of refugees and returnees in certain parts of the south, such as Moyen Chari, Mandoul, and Salamat, will create additional costs for their host families and will increase the household dependency ratio, or the number of dependents per household, putting additional pressure on household demand, consumption, and spending. This will reduce the quantity and quality of food intake by these households and will cause them to skip meals and/or substitute bouillie (porridge) for rice or boule (dumplings). These households will also find themselves unable to engage in certain types of essential nonfood spending and, thus, will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2).


    Area of Concern

    Wadi Fira area

    Crop production

    Cereal production for the 2013-2014 agropastoral season fell 49 percent short of the five-year average, due to a late start-of-season, a dry spell in July, and a premature end of the rainy season three weeks earlier than normal. In a normal year, this area is generally self-sufficient, but this year’s cereal balance sheet is below normal, showing an estimated 12,000 metric ton deficit (ONDR-Biltine).

    In addition, the market gardening season in this area is not going that well, with most crops harvested sooner than usual as a result of the uncharacteristic withering of crops in the flowering stage due to high temperatures and accompanying hot winds. While there are no quantitative estimates, cropping rates for market garden crops (tomatoes, lettuce, onions, etc.) were also lower than usual due to the below-normal water levels in seasonal lakes and ponds. However, despite the poor cereal and market garden crop production in Biltine, peanut and sesame production increased by 59 and 88 percent, respectively, compared to the five-year average as both of these crops are more drought-resistant than cereal crops.

    With the below-average production of cereals, which accounts for approximately three quarters of total crop production in this area, incomes from crop sales are about 13 percent lower than average. However, incomes from peanut sales are above average due to the combined effects of good crop yields and advantageous prices. More specifically, current peanut prices are up 14 percent from January 2014 and up 11 percent from the five-year average due to high demand from Sudan and the growth of small-scale peanut oil processing plants. On the other hand, incomes from in-kind loans and payments have dropped sharply and are nearly 50 percent below-normal.

    Animal health conditions

    Animal health conditions are relatively stable. However, livestock are in poorer than usual physical condition due to pastoral deficits, which have caused animals to travel longer distances in search of pasture and water. The resulting weight loss that this has caused is adversely affecting livestock productivity in terms of milk and meat and is negatively impacting their competitiveness on livestock markets.

    Income from nonfarm labor

    The daily wage rate has been stable, at 2,000 FCFA, but there has been below-average demand for labor with most construction projects nearly completed since last year and with the reduction of market gardening activities. The number of work days per week is also down (from 4 in a normal year to 2-3 this year). This will reduce earnings for poor households dependent on this income source.

    Markets and prices

    Market activities in Biltine are relatively slow due to the poor 2013 harvest, which is responsible for below-normal market supply. There is a normal, regular flow of cereals (millet and sorghum) between markets in major crop-producing areas of the Sahelian zone (Abéché, Am-timan, and Goz-Beida) and Biltine. In contrast, there are no signs, so far, of the usual trade flows from the Sudanian zone to Biltine (via Abéché) due to the good availability of cereals in certain parts of the Sahelian zone (Ouaddai, Guera, Chari Baguirmi, Lac, and Salamat).

    Domestic demand from households, traders, and institutions is growing and at above-normal levels due to the depletion of household food stocks by February, two months earlier than usual. There are also reports of small-scale institutional procurements by the ONASA in eastern Biltine in the Guereda area (Wadi Fira) where there are normally no such procurements. In addition, there has been growing seasonal demand from traders since March. In contrast, foreign demand is down sharply from the pre-2011 period of stability in Libya due to the security situation in Libya and to government restrictions and civil security issues on the other side of the border impeding cereal shipments to neighboring Darfur. There are also reports of strong demand from other local markets (in Wadi Fira, Borkou, Ennedi, and northern Ouara) that were impacted by fairly significant cereal deficits this year.

    Cereal prices are up sharply from the same time last year due to the low supply levels. Sorghum and millet prices are up from March of last year by 74 percent and 47 percent, respectively, and are well above the five-year average (by 47 percent in the case of sorghum and 38 percent in the case of pearl millet). The small increase in imported rice prices (+6 percent) is attributable to lower than usual supplies from Libya.

    Livestock markets

    Current supplies on livestock markets are large compared with the seasonal norm as a result of poor pasture and/or water availability and the fear of households of losing their animals. These large supplies have had a major impact on prices for cattle and small ruminants, systematically driving down prices from the same time last year (by 69 percent in the case of cattle, 62 percent in the case of sheep, and 57 percent in the case of goats). Livestock prices in this area are also well below the five-year average (by 50 percent in the case of cattle, 34 percent in the case of sheep, and 36 percent in the case of goats). Sheep/millet terms of trade are currently eroding and are detrimental to pastoralists. More specifically, households who were able to trade a sheep on the Biltine market for 400 kg of millet in March of last year were only able to receive 93 kg of millet in March 2014, or less than a 100 kg sack. Poor livestock body conditions have also contributed to the decline in milk availability, which is dwindling and virtually nonexistent compared with a normal year.

    Humanitarian assistance

    The National Food Security Agency (ONASA) has deployed close to 4,000 metric tons of cereals since March 2014 for sale on local markets at subsidized prices (50 percent below market prices). The ONASA will often engage in these subsidized sales during the lean season (between June and September), but they are unusual for this time of the year. These subsidized sales are targeted at the entire population of Biltine. In addition, CARE International has been operating an emergency assistance program in Biltine since the beginning of March, providing cash vouchers to very poor and poor households across the area. Approximately 20,000 households will be served by this program.

    Assumptions

    The most likely food security scenario for April through September 2014 in the Wadi Fira area is based on the following assumptions:

    • Pastoral conditions: With the pasture deficit in this area, the lean season for pastoral populations will begin earlier than usual (by March/April instead of May) and the physical condition of livestock will deteriorate between April and June. The resulting weight loss will trigger an unusually sharp decline in prices for small ruminants and milk production. Between July and September, the good supply of pasture and water in all agropastoral areas will improve livestock body conditions.
    • Transhumance: The heavy concentration of animal herds belonging to refugees and returnees in the far southern reaches of Chad will prompt pastoralists to head back north into the Wadi Fira area beginning in June, with the risk of creating heavy concentrations of animals in that area and conflicts between local farmers and pastoralists.
    • Wild plant products: Last year’s low rainfall levels and truncated rainy season have significantly affected the availability of wild plant products, which will be below-average.
    • Crop sales: There will be a much smaller than usual volume of crop sales (cereals and market gardening) by very poor and poor households during the outlook period.
    • Domestic trade flows: Supplies on urban cereal markets in this area will come from normal carry-over household cereal stocks in surrounding villages, plus atypical trade flows from markets in surplus areas like Abéché to make up for the below-average volume of local cereal production. However, these trade flows will be slowed by the poor condition of roads and the presence of water-filled wadis during the rainy season (between July and September), which will make the movement of trade difficult if not impossible in certain localized areas.
    • Foreign trade flows: Government restrictions since 2012 on cereal exports to neighboring countries, such as Sudan, will remain in effect. However, informal cereal exports from eastern Wadi Fira to the neighboring Darfur area will continue, though the volume of these flows will be below average.  
    • Cereal prices: The combined effects of unusually strong demand and the local cereal deficit, which is negatively affecting market supplies, will trigger uncharacteristically steep increases in cereal prices (particularly for sorghum and millet) between May and September to levels close to 80 to 100 percent above the five-year average. These high price levels will limit cereal access by very poor and poor households.
    • Livestock prices: Livestock prices on the Biltine market could come down by approximately 15 to 20 percent between April and June, negatively impacting sheep to cereal terms of trade. However, high demand for meat during the month-long observance of Ramadan will drive prices above their five-year averages. In addition, there will be more livestock sales than usual beginning in July, both to meet Ramadan-related demand and to strengthen the purchasing power of households who are significantly more market dependant than usual. Due to the combination of these factors, July livestock prices are expected to be up 10 percent compared with June levels. The plentiful supply of pasture and water and resulting improvement in livestock body conditions in August and September will keep prices stable during this time period.
    • Humanitarian assistance: The following humanitarian assistance programs will continue throughout the outlook period:
      • The National Food Security Agency (ONASA) will continue its subsidized sales of close to 4,000 metric tons of cereals (at 50 percent below market prices) targeted at the entire population of Biltine.
      • CARE International will continue to provide emergency assistance through the distribution of cash vouchers to 20,000 very poor and poor households across the area.
      • Catholic Relief Services (CRS) has targeted 8,000 households for food assistance through a food voucher program. This program will provide 7,500 sedentary households with 24,000 CFA franc vouchers for a six-month period from May to October. In addition, close to 500 nomadic households will also receive vouchers for a not yet specified amount for the May to June period. CRS will also target 10,000 households for supplemental agricultural assistance (in the form of seeds and training in farming methods and post-harvest practices) and microfinance, including 6,250 households also targeted for food assistance.
    Most likely food security outcomes

    The combined effects of the premature depletion of household food stocks, declining livestock prices, and unusually steep food price increases will erode household purchasing power and limit food access between April and June. In addition, the above-average income levels of very poor and poor households from scaled-up sales of small ruminants and migrant remittances as coping strategies will not make up for their lower incomes from wood/straw sales, construction jobs, and cereal crops. Forced to cut their spending on nonfood needs and facing food consumption deficits, households in the Wadi Fira area will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during this period.

    Local households will continue to face food security problems between July and September due to the lack of household food stocks and their complete dependence on market purchases. While coping strategies such as the sale of livestock and migration to Abéché to work on large farms of better-off households will strengthen their purchasing power to a certain degree, the unusually steep cereal price increases during this time period will sharply limit cereal access and, thus, prevent households from overcoming their food gaps. While projected humanitarian assistance will prevent a further deterioration of their food security situation, these households will continue to face food consumption deficits and, thus, will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the upcoming October harvests.


    Events that Might Change the Outlook

    Table 1: Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario

    Area

    Event

    Impact on food security conditions

    National

    Late start of the 2014-2015 growing season

    • Fewer on-farm wage-earning opportunities or, in other words, less demand for farm labor 
    • Hoarding of cereal stocks and higher cereal prices
    • Delay in harvests and extended lean season

    National

    Ban on cereal shipments from surplus to deficit areas and/or disruptions in trade between Chad and neighboring countries such as Nigeria and Libya

    • Higher cereal prices in high-demand or deficit areas

     

    Wadi Fira

    Scaling up of humanitarian assistance, including distributions of free food rations, cereal sales at subsidized prices, and cash voucher programs

     

    • These programs would help improve household food access and prevent the depletion of their livelihoods (ex. small ruminant sales).

     

    Wadi Fira

    Larger than usual cereal transfers from the Sudanian to the Sahelian zone

    • This would help stabilize market prices for food products.

     

     

    Figures Seasonal calendar for a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar for a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Source:

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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